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This is an update to a post I did several years ago.

September 23, 2011
An Employment Trend that Has Not Failed





In hindsight, it has not been easy.

The following chart shows the natural log of financial activities employment divided by manufacturing employment. When using logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line.


Click to enlarge.

This trend is in serious danger of failing. We're at the very bottom of the channel again. We last saw this heading into the dotcom bust. Before that we were heading into several recessions in the late 1970s. We also saw it as we were putting a man on the moon in 1969. Have we colonized the moon yet thanks to our ever growing prosperity? Or are we planning to put that off a few more years?

Do not lose hope. When Mr. FIRE Economy was asked about his recent under-performance relative to manufacturing (relative to the long-term trend) he exclaimed, "Give me recession or give me death!" To which Mr. Manufacturing Economy laughed with great hubris, "Don't be silly! Our new and improved Fed has permanently put an end to all recessions! It's common knowledge. Everyone knows it. It really is different this time!"

In all seriousness, note that the ratio tends to rise most during recessions as manufacturing employment plummets more than financial activities employment. Being at the very bottom of the channel therefore puts us in "great" position for another legendary rise in the ratio. If the trend holds over the long-term (think fully automated manufacturing employment), then it is only a matter of time.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The following chart shows annual nonstore retail sales as a fraction of total retail sales (excluding food services).


Click to enlarge.

The growth trend is extrapolated out to 2050. I'm simply showing what the future will look like if the current trend continues. If 10% causes shopping mall pain now (which it clearly does), then what would 20% do in just 17 more years? Or 40% just 17 years after that?

A 4.2% growth rate means that the thing growing doubles every 17 years. In this case, that thing is shopping mall pain.

If you get stung by a bee and every 17 seconds you get stung by twice as many, how many minutes will it take before you realize that you're standing on a bee hive? How's that for optimism?

The following chart shows retail employees as a fraction of all nonfarm employees.


Click to enlarge.

Although there has been recent illusionary relative strength brought on by misplaced faith in the Fed to heal all that ails us, I fully expect the downward trend in red to continue. Further, I do not expect the blue trend line to offer any meaningful support to halt the decline.

February 26, 2013
The Death of the American Mall and the Rebirth of Public Space


Our older less prosperous economy is divesting itself of older less prosperous malls? Shocking.



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #1
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #2

The following chart shows industrial capacity per capita (industrial production index adjusted for capacity utilization and population).


Click to enlarge.

That's a 0.998 correlation over 27 years of data (Jan 1967 to Jan 1994). And then... Boom! Trend broken big time. That has to be one of the most impressive trend failures I've ever posted on this blog. It was so incredibly consistent and predictable right up until it wasn't.

It's not where we've been but where we are headed that concerns me most. Now that we have all this extra capacity, what's the worst that could happen from here?


File:Abandoned Packard Automobile Factory Detroit 200.jpg (Albert duce)

It's not just us.

February 17, 2014
China Crackdown Drives Business Off the Books


February 10, 2014
Guest post: dealing with 500m tonnes of global steel overcapacity


January 27, 2014
China’s Aluminum Overcapacity Seen by Fitch Holding Down Prices


January 23, 2014
PetroChina delays operation of refineries on overcapacity

December 11, 2013
Overcapacity Threatens China Growth


I have never been more permabearish.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The following chart shows the annual average of the Dow Jones Industrial Average adjusted for inflation (December 2013 dollars). It does not account for dividends (which over the long-term can be very important clearly).


Click to enlarge.

This is not 1982. We know this because the Dow Jones Industrial Average is not trading at roughly 1916 levels (adjusted for inflation).

I'm just pointing it out for those who truly believe that this is 1982 and that a whole new era of American prosperity will soon be unleashed. That said, something may soon be unleashed (again). 1999 and 2007 weren't enough warnings?

It is yet another ugly chart, but what's new? As a retiree, I'm generally a risk-off kind of guy, and that's got risk written all over it.

1. Profit margins will stay permanently elevated?
2. ZIRP is guaranteed to work long-term?
3. The business cycle is dead so it's nothing but up from here?
4. There aren't any itchy trigger fingers hovering over sell buttons?
5. The Fed knows exactly what it is doing?
6. We can continue to borrow our way to prosperity forever?
7. America can never have too many restaurants?
8. The rise in Internet commerce won't hurt malls irreparably?


It takes a great deal of faith and/or hubris to answer a resounding "yes" to all those questions. I don't have enough faith to answer yes to any of them.

This is not investment advice, but damn. Surely there were better times in all of recorded history to put money to work in the stock market.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The following chart shows the annual change in manufacturing employees. I'm using semiannual data to filter out some of the noise.


Click to enlarge.

How can people be optimistic about the future of long-term employment when looking at that chart? Is it because they are looking at the following chart instead (and cherry picking just the good stuff)?



Cherry Picked Goodness

1. The growth rate is still positive! Hurray!
2. It's different this time! Woohoo!
3. Thanks to the Fed, recessions are now impossible!
4. We've lost more than 5 million manufacturing jobs since 2000. 12 million to go.

Can't you see that we're being Khan'd?

He is intelligent, but not experienced. His pattern indicates two-dimensional thinking. - Spock, The Wrath of Khan (1982)

One-dimensional thinking: The growth rate is still positive.
Two-dimensional thinking: The growth rate is positive but slowing.
Three-dimensional thinking: Somethin's poppin' and it ain't popcorn.

This is not investment advice. As always, just opinions.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Manufacturing Employment Growth
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Manufacturing

Click to enlarge.

The data in blue shows the annual inflation adjusted rail transportation corporate profits after tax (left scale, billions of December 2013 dollars).

The data in black shows the number of rail transportation employees (right scale, thousands).

It's almost like each additional boxcar on a train does not require an additional worker.



July 24, 2013
Forget the Google Car. The Future is Robotic Trucks.


Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The following chart shows the inverse of manufacturing employment.


Click to enlarge.

Yes! The Ultimate Super Bowl! That's what I'm talking about.

Did you really think that I was going to post something about the Seahawks just because I live in the Seattle area? I'm not even going to dignify that question with a long response.


And um, well, go manufacturing employment too I guess. Yeah, that's right. I'm sure that the long-term trend in the chart is finally reversing. Sure. Why not? Humans are finally winning over robots. Who couldn't see that one coming? Just look at the trend since the end of the Great Recession. The inverse is finally falling. It's clearly sustainable and we should therefore expect everyone to be working in manufacturing within the next few years. Oh, sure. It might be starting to curve upwards again but that's just something a pessimist might say. This is not a day for pessimism! Go Seahawks!

If you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Spock

It is common knowledge that the Fed has permanently put a stop to recessions. As seen in the chart, the inverse generally only starts to climb higher during recessions. That leaves us with the improbable. Right? The inverse is therefore not attempting to climb higher! It's all just a figment of our imaginations! Someone back me up on this. This is Puget Sound logical thinking at its finest. Did I say Puget Sound? Oops. Freudian slip! Go Seahawks!

Yes, yes. I'm filled with a renewed sense of irrational truth-seeking optimism and absolute faith in all officials! If everyone says the Fed won't allow another fumble gone bad, then who am I to argue differently? ;)

And lastly, I just have to say one more thing to be absolutely clear here.

Go Seahawks! :)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

January 16, 2014
Time: How Amazon Crushed the Union Movement


On the one hand, this is absolutely shocking. Who would have guessed that high-paid white-collar employees invariably earn more than low-paid blue-collar employees? Time hasn't shocked me this much since they declared my snowboard to be a fad in the 1980s. I believe it was doomed to go the way of the hula hoop if memory serves. Oh how I laughed over that one at the time.


On the other hand, that would definitely suck (pardon my language). I've walked a lot of miles in recent years and anything over 7 miles is risking a blister or two. I can't imagine doing it every day. The thought of an ambulance waiting for me after a long shift is icing on the cake. I can definitely empathize with the frustration.

Look at the Tesla factory - what's the worker to robotic arm ratio in that factory? - polarbear429 (in the comments)

And on that third hand, the more the poorest among us are paid the sooner their jobs will be replaced by automation. Talk about a lose-lose situation for the workers. There is no backup plan once the jobs are permanently gone either, other than to pretend they will all miraculously find work elsewhere. As a side note, the more Amazon and other automated online retailers sell, the less brick and mortar retailers can sell. There are potentially 15 million retail jobs at stake here, and when they go they will no doubt take others with them. Sigh.



This post inspired by Fritz_O who pointed out (in the comments found here) that the Amazon workers opted not to unionize.

Click to enlarge.

The black line shows the annual average of the industrial mining production index (left scale). Note that it recently set a new record.

The blue line shows the annual average gold price adjusted by the consumer price index (right scale, December 2013 dollars). It grew exponentially starting in 2000 and very nearly set a new record. It has recently backed off though.

Let's zoom in a bit.


Click to enlarge.




September 23, 2007
Productivity Miracle


May 22, 2013
20 Insane Bitcoin Mining Rigs


Mining rocks to hoard? Mining bitcoins to hoard? It's all good if it adds to GDP! Right?

This is not investment advice. As always, just opinions.

And on that note, here are a few bonus opinions. I find it insane that we needlessly waste any of the world's resources to mine bitcoins. Is the world really going to be a better place because of it? Is this the kind of productivity miracle that will lead to future prosperity? It's shameful that bitcoins require any energy at all to create. Good grief. At the very least, they could have made a computer game out of it that's fun to play. But no, it's just automated computers (in ever greater numbers) mining virtual bitcoins (in dwindling numbers). Put another way, it requires ever increasing streams of energy to generate fewer and fewer bitcoins. What a frickin' long-term plan of wasted effort that is (not necessarily from a miner's perspective, but for society in general).

At least gold gives you something shiny to fondle once the mining's complete. I say this as one who owned gold from 2004 to 2006. It treated me very well over that period. No complaints. No desire to buy it again though (at these prices anyway). Your opinions may vary of course.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart (Long-Term)
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart (Short-Term)

Now that the consumer price index for 2013 is complete, let's look at the long-term trend of the annual percent change in the average annual CPI.


Click to enlarge.

Ten Questions for 2014

1. How many decades will we be stuck in ZIRP?
2. Will it be as many decades as Japan?
3. Why is the Fed tapering?
4. When will the Fed ramp up QE again?
5. How much more poning can the hyperinflationists take?
6. Why am I so willing to hold long-term TIPS to maturity?
7. Where have all the "bond vigilantes" gone?
8. What are they doing with all their profits?
9. Sears? (It's a rhetorical question.)
10. Why must I use the sarcasm label in nearly every post?

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The following chart compares the growth of nonstore retailer sales vs. overall retail sales (in black and red) to the growth of nonstore retailer employment vs. overall retail employment (in blue and orange).


Click to enlarge.

Nonstore retailers are growing their sales exponentially relative to overall retail sales but nonstore employment is decaying exponentially relative to overall retail employment. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand the stress that's placing on brick and mortars over the long-term (and the jobs that go with them).

I believe with every fiber of my being that retail employment of the future is going the way of farming employment and manufacturing employment. It won't stop there though. Coming soon to a profession near you!

September 13, 2013
Half of all U.S. jobs will be automated, but what opportunities will be created?


I'm thinking that the answer isn't extreme student loan debt. That's just a hunch though.

Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (2003)


Was Kate Brewster a Sears employee? Sigh.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The following chart shows the annual job growth using the quarterly average of the equally weighted government establishment and household employment surveys. I'm using the quarterly average to filter the noise out a bit.


Click to enlarge.

Perhaps an optimist can find something good in that chart, but I certainly can't (at least over the long-term and/or full business cycle anyway).

May 18, 2012
Recession Prediction



For what it is worth, the odds of me turning optimistic any time soon are somewhere between slim and none. Just so you know, slim left town. Put another way, I see little reason to change my long-standing prediction.

This is not investment advice. Predicting the future is a fool's game. That said, it might be even more foolish to ignore the risks entirely. It's certainly easy and popular these days though. I'll give you that.

January 6, 2014
Hussman Funds: Confidence Abounds

Hey, what do you know? No sarcasm this time, unless sheer unadulterated long-term employment chart terror counts. I don't think it does but it is certainly open for debate.

See Also:
The Overleveraged Cone of Shame

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Click to enlarge.

As of November of 2013, 3.28% of our population works in the food services and drinking places industry. That's a new record. Can't ever have too many highly compensated restaurant workers in this brave new world!

As clearly seen in the chart (red trend line), it will only grow exponentially higher from here. Just look at that 0.990 correlation!

What's that blue line you say? Oh, that's an old trend that you need not concern yourself with all that much. With a lower correlation of just 0.988 it was surely doomed to fail at some point. And what a pathetic growth rate it had. That 1.78% annual growth rate pales in comparison to the new and improved 2.42%.

And to think, all we needed to get here was a Great Recession to speed things along. It's only a matter of time before every man, woman, and child in America will be flipping burgers for a living! Hurray! What could possibly go wrong?

Motherboard: Meet the Robot That Makes 360 Gourmet Burgers Per Hour


Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The following chart shows construction and manufacturing payrolls as a fraction of nonfarm payrolls.


Click to enlarge.

That sure looks like a fish ladder to me. The only difference is that the fish aren't supposed to be heading downstream. Down 19% and temporarily holding!

Fish Ladder


Oh oh. Sounds like a faulty dam. What went wrong?


Click to enlarge.

Craziest monetary god dam design ever! That's what! Who in their right mind would put the monetary floodgate below the fish ladder?



I said in the past that some posts are mostly for the puns. How could I pass up this post's title once it got stuck in my head? Hahaha! Sigh. I sigh because the data is ugly, especially over the long-term. Gallows humor can't fix that.

See Also:
The "Recovery"

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
St. Louis Fed: Monetary Base

The following chart shows goods-producing employment divided by service-providing employment.


Click to enlarge.

Poof.

Let's look at the bigger picture and see where we are.


Click to enlarge.

If transitioning from a goods-producing economy to a service-providing economy is such a good thing, then why does the bulk of the transitioning happen during recessions?

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #1
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #2

The following chart shows the natural log of real disposable personal income per capita. Once again, constant exponential growth shows up as a straight line when using natural logs.


Click to enlarge.

There are at least a few things worth considering.

1. Due to rising income inequality, the typical person isn't doing nearly as well as this chart would suggest.

2. As automation takes on more and more human work, how will billions of people find employment? How much of this is seen in the chart?

3. The trend is definitely not a straight line. It is curving downwards with a very high correlation of 0.993. If the current trend continues, then we'll peak in 2058 (45 years from now). That's a big if. If I'm alive to see it, I'll be 94 years old. That's another big if.

4. It is mathematically impossible for this upside down parabolic trend to continue forever. There must be a failure at some point. If nothing else, I don't think any rational person would expect real disposable personal income per capita to ever fall below zero. That would happen in 2164. This would certainly not be the first failure we've seen in recent years. We live in the era of long-term trend failures.

5. Any failure would probably be to the downside, since that is the direction the data is being pulled (much like a camel's back when more and more weight is placed upon it).

6. Contrary to some, I therefore definitely believe that the long-term future is not so bright that I gotta wear shades.

“I believe in making the world safe for our children, but not our children's children, because I don't think children should be having sex.” - Jack Handey

Japan (our partner in ZIRP crime) must love Jack Handey quotes.

December 23, 2013
Japan’s Diaper Shift and Global Population Trends


For what it is worth, I'm very much a believer in the theory. In some ways, we're like locusts and the lowest hanging fruit has already been eaten (USA prosperity analogy). I know it sounds grim, but that's what I believe. The good news is that I'm thankful every day that I was born where and when I was.

As seen in the chart, I'm not at all convinced that our children's children will be quite as thankful. It isn't that I think they will be unhappy being born in America. Far from it. I simply question the timing. It's not like I would tell them to move to China. Let's just put it that way.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The following chart shows real annualized power construction spending per capita (October 2013 dollars).


Click to enlarge.

Tack on another $117 per year that will ultimately be passed on to the people (each man, woman, and child).

Hey, maybe it won't appear all at once though, thanks to the Fed's ZIRP providing long-term financing at supposedly super cheap long-term interest rates. That debt could potentially just brew and percolate for a few decades perhaps. So we've got that going for us, which is nice.

Power to the people (slogan)

With $90+ oil, power to the people has a whole new meaning now of course.

It doesn't look like we can expect much power construction job growth per capita from here. As seen in the chart, real spending per capita is just sliding along sideways at a higher new normal. I guess we'll just have to make it up on fast food jobs.

August 29, 2013
The Fast-Food Restaurants That Require Few Human Workers

Introverts of the world unite! I say this as an introvert who generally enjoys gallows sarcasm of course. Deep sigh.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The following was a comment left for me on the last post.


It included a link to an extended auto warranty website.

Turing Test


Human? Machine? You make the call.



Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt. - Abraham Lincoln

Click to enlarge.

Let us pray that the wages of production and nonsupervisory manufacturing workers will finally be able to keep up with the price of lettuce over the long-term.


Click to enlarge.

Let us also pray that the remaining 12 million manufacturing employees (down from nearly 20 million in the late 1970s) will not soon be replaced by even more automated systems and outsourcing.

And lastly, let us pray that SNAP benefits will be cut for all participants in November 2013. May this new era of American manufacturing employment provide all that we could possibly ever want or need and may we remain recession-free well into the distant future.

In Ted Cruz' name we pray. Amen.

October 26, 2013
How Washington’s “Crucifixion” Of Ted Cruz Made Him A Tea Party Saint In Iowa


Source Data:
BLS: CPI Database
St. Louis Fed: Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: Manufacturing
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Manufacturing

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of annualized production and nonsupervisory apparel (nondurable goods) employee hours worked per capita.


Click to enlarge.



Source Data:
BLS: Employment
St. Louis Fed: Population