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The following chart shows the 20 year moving average of annual miles traveled per capita. A trend line in red has been added.Click to enlarge.This is definitely the most impressive "sure thing" failure yet. 0.9997! Sis boom bah!Sis boom bah.Describe the sound made when a sheep explodes.January 12, 2014Toyota Sees Auto Industry Growth Slowing in 2014Continued sales growth will be more a result of economic gains rather...

February 24, 2014Coffee Reaches 16-Month High as Sugar Gains on Brazil DroughtPrices rallied 59 percent this year, the best performer in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities. But what can wake the sleeping giant?Click to enlarge.The chart shows the 10 year moving average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its...

This is an update to a post I did several years ago.September 23, 2011An Employment Trend that Has Not FailedI promised an exponential trend that has not failed. Here it comes!We can get this ratio to infinity simply by continuing to shed manufacturing jobs faster than we shed financial activities jobs. It might not be as easy as it looks though.In hindsight, it has not been easy.The following chart shows the natural...

The following chart compares the growth in the number of retail production and nonsupervisory employees (in black) to the growth in the aggregate weekly hours worked by retail production and nonsupervisory employees (in blue).Click to enlarge.We have "successfully" transitioned to a "weaker than appears" retail employment economy. Get out the party hats.See Also:Sarcasm DisclaimerSource Data:St. Louis Fed: Custom C...

The following chart shows the annual change in the semiannual average of new one family homes sold in the West Census Region.Click to enlarge.What's the worst that could happen from here? Okay, sure. The growth rate is currently negative and has been falling for 18 months. That's just this winter's East Coast's polar vortex temporarily rippling back through space and time though. Any rational optimist can see that.Further,...

The following chart shows real nonfinancial corporate business credit market liabilities per capita (September 2013 dollars).Click to enlarge.An exponential trend channel did not fit the data well at all but a parabolic trend sure did.Parabolic moves are not sustainable over the long-term. This is a mathematical certainty. About the only thing open for debate here is the timing of the failure(s).There's a reason that...

The following chart shows the natural log of annual change in the CPI less food and energy. When using logs, exponential growth (or in this case, decay) is seen as a straight line.Click to enlarge.No matter how hard the Fed tries, it cannot seem to break through the top of the decaying trend channel. So what's the latest tactic? Taper! Good luck on that. Maybe it works. Maybe it doesn't.As seen in the following chart,...

The following chart shows the average of new private housing units authorized by building permits and new privately owned housing units started.Click to enlarge.If cold weather is responsible for the exponential trend failure then, as seen in the chart, it sure has been cold over the past year.Source Data:St. Louis Fed: Custom Cha...