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This is an update to a post I did several years ago.September 23, 2011An Employment Trend that Has Not FailedI promised an exponential trend that has not failed. Here it comes!We can get this ratio to infinity simply by continuing to shed manufacturing jobs faster than we shed financial activities jobs. It might not be as easy as it looks though.In hindsight, it has not been easy.The following chart shows the natural...

The following chart shows annual nonstore retail sales as a fraction of total retail sales (excluding food services).Click to enlarge.The growth trend is extrapolated out to 2050. I'm simply showing what the future will look like if the current trend continues. If 10% causes shopping mall pain now (which it clearly does), then what would 20% do in just 17 more years? Or 40% just 17 years after that?A 4.2% growth rate...

The following chart shows industrial capacity per capita (industrial production index adjusted for capacity utilization and population).Click to enlarge.That's a 0.998 correlation over 27 years of data (Jan 1967 to Jan 1994). And then... Boom! Trend broken big time. That has to be one of the most impressive trend failures I've ever posted on this blog. It was so incredibly consistent and predictable right up until it...

The following chart shows the annual average of the Dow Jones Industrial Average adjusted for inflation (December 2013 dollars). It does not account for dividends (which over the long-term can be very important clearly).Click to enlarge.This is not 1982. We know this because the Dow Jones Industrial Average is not trading at roughly 1916 levels (adjusted for inflation).I'm just pointing it out for those who truly believe...

The following chart shows the annual change in manufacturing employees. I'm using semiannual data to filter out some of the noise.Click to enlarge.How can people be optimistic about the future of long-term employment when looking at that chart? Is it because they are looking at the following chart instead (and cherry picking just the good stuff)?Cherry Picked Goodness1. The growth rate is still positive! Hurray!2. It's...

Click to enlarge.The data in blue shows the annual inflation adjusted rail transportation corporate profits after tax (left scale, billions of December 2013 dollars).The data in black shows the number of rail transportation employees (right scale, thousands).It's almost like each additional boxcar on a train does not require an additional worker.July 24, 2013Forget the Google Car. The Future is Robotic Trucks.Everyone...

The following chart shows the inverse of manufacturing employment.Click to enlarge.Yes! The Ultimate Super Bowl! That's what I'm talking about.Did you really think that I was going to post something about the Seahawks just because I live in the Seattle area? I'm not even going to dignify that question with a long response.Go Seahawks!And um, well, go manufacturing employment too I guess. Yeah, that's right. I'm sure...

January 16, 2014Time: How Amazon Crushed the Union MovementAlthough Amazon has a high-tech image, blue-collar employees do most of the work. Invariably, they earn much less than high-paid computer programmers.On the one hand, this is absolutely shocking. Who would have guessed that high-paid white-collar employees invariably earn more than low-paid blue-collar employees? Time hasn't shocked me this much since they declared...