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Linear Trend Failure of the Day
Click to enlarge.
It would seem that banks are not going to be paying people to take out mortgages after all. Who knew?
Strike one more economic tailwind off the list.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Origination Fees and Discount Points for 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
Posted by Unknown
at 09.06,
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The Future of American Baby Manufacturing (Musical Tribute)
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Wikipedia: Optimism
Optimism is a mental attitude or world view that interprets situations and events as being best (optimized), meaning that in some way for factors that may not be fully comprehended, the present moment is in an optimum state. The concept is typically extended to include the attitude of hope for future conditions unfolding as optimal as well.
Hey! Look! A parabola! Woo-hoo!
See Also:
St. Louis Fed: Japan's Working Age Population
Sarcasm Disclaimer
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
Posted by Unknown
at 11.13,
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Housing's Addiction and Recovery (Musical Tribute)
The following chart shows owner occupied housing units.
Jane's Addiction - Mountain Song
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Owner Occupied Housing Units
Jane's Addiction - Mountain Song
Cash in
Cash in now honey
Cash in now
Cash in now baby
Cash in now honey
Cash in Miss Smith
Cash in now baby
Cash in now honey
Cash in now
Cash in now baby
Cash in now honey
Cash in Miss Smith
Cash in now baby
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Owner Occupied Housing Units
Posted by Unknown
at 01.06,
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You Can't Handle the Truth!
The following chart shows the semiannual average of the 30-year conventional mortgage rate.
Click to enlarge.
I have added an exponential decay trend line in blue and an exponential decay channel in red. To create the top of the channel, I multiplied the interest rate in blue by 1.2 (+20%). To create the bottom of the channel, I multiplied the interest rate in blue by 0.8 (-20%).
Over the long-term, does that look like a rising interest rate environment to you? Is there any indication, any indication at all, that the long-term trend is failing? As of the 2nd half of 2013, we're sitting right on the long-term trend line in blue.
This is not investment advice.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
Click to enlarge.
I have added an exponential decay trend line in blue and an exponential decay channel in red. To create the top of the channel, I multiplied the interest rate in blue by 1.2 (+20%). To create the bottom of the channel, I multiplied the interest rate in blue by 0.8 (-20%).
Over the long-term, does that look like a rising interest rate environment to you? Is there any indication, any indication at all, that the long-term trend is failing? As of the 2nd half of 2013, we're sitting right on the long-term trend line in blue.
You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that hits housing walls and those housing walls have to be guarded by men with continually falling interest rate policies.
Did you see the stock market turn red?
I did the job.
Did you see the stock market turn red?
You're goddamned right I did!
Did you see the stock market turn red?
I did the job.
Did you see the stock market turn red?
You're goddamned right I did!
This is not investment advice.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
Posted by Unknown
at 04.57,
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Building Permit Slowdown for Privately Owned 1-Unit Structures
The first chart shows the annual change in new privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits for 1-unit structures. I'm using quarterly averages to smooth out the noise a bit.
Click to enlarge.
Can't we just blame it the weather and call it good?
The next chart shows just the data for Florida, Nevada, and Arizona (three of the previous housing bubble's largest hotspots).
Click to enlarge.
I guess it all depends on how much annual polar vortex activity there was in Florida, Nevada, and Arizona. As seen in the chart, the growth trend has been decelerating at a consistent pace for a full year. We'll therefore need a whole year's worth of polar vortex activity in three of the warmest states. Totally doable with the right spin!
Further, just look at all that volatility in the data since 2005. I can't even begin to tell you how much that fills me with confidence. Slow and steady is so overrated. Anarchy! Random profits and losses! That's what makes the casino life right for me!
This is not investment advice (especially that part about casino life being right for me).
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Building Permits for 1-Unit Structures (National)
St. Louis Fed: Building Permits for 1-Unit Structures (Florida + Nevada + Arizona)
Click to enlarge.
Can't we just blame it the weather and call it good?
The next chart shows just the data for Florida, Nevada, and Arizona (three of the previous housing bubble's largest hotspots).
Click to enlarge.
I guess it all depends on how much annual polar vortex activity there was in Florida, Nevada, and Arizona. As seen in the chart, the growth trend has been decelerating at a consistent pace for a full year. We'll therefore need a whole year's worth of polar vortex activity in three of the warmest states. Totally doable with the right spin!
Further, just look at all that volatility in the data since 2005. I can't even begin to tell you how much that fills me with confidence. Slow and steady is so overrated. Anarchy! Random profits and losses! That's what makes the casino life right for me!
This is not investment advice (especially that part about casino life being right for me).
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Building Permits for 1-Unit Structures (National)
St. Louis Fed: Building Permits for 1-Unit Structures (Florida + Nevada + Arizona)
Posted by Unknown
at 11.14,
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The Sarcasm Report v.183
January 22, 2014
Forbes: Protect Yourself From A Treasury Bond Crash
January 27, 2014
Wall Street Journal: Treasurys Swing Higher After New-Home Sales Lower
Forbes: Protect Yourself From A Treasury Bond Crash
How do you make money from this crash—or at least lessen your losses from it?
January 27, 2014
Wall Street Journal: Treasurys Swing Higher After New-Home Sales Lower
The newly revealed weakness in the nation's housing sector underscored the dependence of the economic recovery on cheaper financing, a key factor that will hold interest rates from racing higher this year.
U.S. Treasurys rallied strongly last week, as a selloff in global equity and currency markets prompted investors to flee risky assets and take shelter in the safe-haven market. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury notes fell to 2.737% at Friday's close, the lowest level in two months.
U.S. Treasurys rallied strongly last week, as a selloff in global equity and currency markets prompted investors to flee risky assets and take shelter in the safe-haven market. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury notes fell to 2.737% at Friday's close, the lowest level in two months.
Posted by Unknown
at 10.02,
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An Alternative Housing Recovery Story
The following chart shows new home sales divided by existing home sales.
Click to enlarge.
1. New home sales create construction jobs.
2. Existing home sales do not create construction jobs.
The next chart shows residential construction employees per capita.
Click to enlarge.
Note the exceptionally weak recovery in residential construction employment.
rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: New Home Sales / Existing Home Sales
St. Louis Fed: Residential Construction Employees per Capita
Click to enlarge.
1. New home sales create construction jobs.
2. Existing home sales do not create construction jobs.
The next chart shows residential construction employees per capita.
Click to enlarge.
Note the exceptionally weak recovery in residential construction employment.
rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic
To do something pointless or insignificant that will soon be overtaken by events, or that contributes nothing to the solution of a current problem.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: New Home Sales / Existing Home Sales
St. Louis Fed: Residential Construction Employees per Capita
Posted by Unknown
at 08.00,
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