Daily news sites

February 24, 2014Coffee Reaches 16-Month High as Sugar Gains on Brazil DroughtPrices rallied 59 percent this year, the best performer in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities. But what can wake the sleeping giant?Click to enlarge.The chart shows the 10 year moving average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its...

The following chart shows real nonfinancial corporate business credit market liabilities per capita (September 2013 dollars).Click to enlarge.An exponential trend channel did not fit the data well at all but a parabolic trend sure did.Parabolic moves are not sustainable over the long-term. This is a mathematical certainty. About the only thing open for debate here is the timing of the failure(s).There's a reason that...

The following chart shows the natural log of annual change in the CPI less food and energy. When using logs, exponential growth (or in this case, decay) is seen as a straight line.Click to enlarge.No matter how hard the Fed tries, it cannot seem to break through the top of the decaying trend channel. So what's the latest tactic? Taper! Good luck on that. Maybe it works. Maybe it doesn't.As seen in the following chart,...

The following chart shows real GDP.Click to enlarge.Four exponential trend lines and their growth rates have been added.Note that each time an exponential trend fails, it is replaced with an exponential trend of lesser quality. What doesn't kill us, doesn't make us stronger. Go figure.The next chart shows the long-term trend of those growth rates. I'm using the midpoint of my hand-picked expansions as the x-axis.Click...

Click to enlarge.The line in black shows real net corporate dividends.The line in blue shows the real trade deficit (same scale).The red line shows the exponential trend in real dividends from 1947:Q1 to 1987:Q1. Note the exponential trend failure (to the upside).Will real dividends stay permanently elevated? Will profit margins stay permanently elevated? Can we be assured that the worst is behind us? Can we expect...

The following chart shows the annual change in the semiannual average of the producer price index for finished goods.Click to enlarge.1. Heckle the Fed for achieving long-term "stable price" certainty?2. Heckle Jeremy Siegel for warning us that the Fed would raise rates well before 2014?3. Heckle CNBC for warning us what the taper would do to interest rates?4. Heckle Shadowstats for misguided hyperinflation theories?So...

The following chart shows the 6-month moving average of the annual growth in clothing and clothing accessory store retail sales per capita. Keep in mind that it is not adjusted for inflation.Click to enlarge.We've experienced a lot of weather over the past few years. I doubt there's any reason to worry about the trend.Source Data:St. Louis Fed: Custom Cha...

The following scatter chart compares annual disposable personal income per capita growth (bottom scale) to the annual increase in the consumer price index (left scale).Click to enlarge.From 1960 to 2013:1. 2009 was the worst year for disposable personal income growth per capita. It was also the record low year for consumer price inflation.2. 2013 was the second worst year for disposable personal income growth per capita....