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Tampilkan postingan dengan label linear trend failure. Tampilkan semua postingan

When 0.9997 Correlations Fail

The following chart shows the 20 year moving average of annual miles traveled per capita. A trend line in red has been added.


Click to enlarge.

This is definitely the most impressive "sure thing" failure yet. 0.9997! Sis boom bah!



Sis boom bah.
Describe the sound made when a sheep explodes.

January 12, 2014
Toyota Sees Auto Industry Growth Slowing in 2014

Continued sales growth will be more a result of economic gains rather than pent-up demand, he said. “That’s good, because pent-up demand can carry you just so far.”

You think?

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Linear Trend Failure of the Day


Click to enlarge.

It would seem that banks are not going to be paying people to take out mortgages after all. Who knew?

Strike one more economic tailwind off the list.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Origination Fees and Discount Points for 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

Personal Income Growth (Musical Tribute)


Click to enlarge.

It is not adjusted for inflation, population growth, or income inequality.



See Also:
Real Annual Disposable Personal Income per Capita Growth
Employment Hump Déjà Vu (Musical Tribute)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Personal Income Growth

When Will the Next Auto Industry Bailout Occur?

The following chart shows the natural log of annual light auto sales divided by civilian employment. I'm using a natural log so that constant exponential growth (or in this case decay) can be seen as a straight line.


Click to enlarge.

Behold the two trend channel failures. The first was a massive failure to the downside and the next was a massive failure to the upside. Slow and steady recovery my @$$.

And on that note, I'll leave the exact date of the next auto industry bailout as an exercise for the reader. Sigh.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Seahawks: A Tale of Two Super Bowl Linear Trend Failures

Seahawks: A Tale of Two Super Bowl Linear Trend Failures
12 seconds into the game, I opted to do some simple back of envelope extrapolation. The score was 2 to 0 and the game was 1/300th complete (barring overtime).

Expected Final Score: 600 to 0

25 seconds into the game, I saw the error of my folly. My model was breaking down! We were clearly losing momentum!

At halftime, I revised my estimate using a much larger data set. The score was 22 to 0 and the game was 50% complete.

Expected Final Score: 44 to 0

Imagine my surprise when Denver scored a touchdown. Nobody could have expected them to score, on a percentage basis, infinitely more points in the second half than in the first half! Black swan event!

Final Score: 43 to 8

Two linear trend failures and we still won? We sure dodged a bullet up here in Seattle. Nail biter to the very end! Whew!

Go Hawks! :)

Housing's Addiction and Recovery (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows owner occupied housing units.



Jane's Addiction - Mountain Song


Cash in
Cash in now honey
Cash in now
Cash in now baby
Cash in now honey
Cash in Miss Smith
Cash in now baby

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Owner Occupied Housing Units

A Workin' Man's Growth, Stagnation, and Crash Model

The following chart shows real monthly manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft per civilian employed (December 2013 dollars). I am using quarterly averages to smooth things out a bit.


Click to enlarge.

Green trend lines represent growth.
Yellow trend lines represent stagnation.
Red trend lines represent "soft patches."

What's the worst that could "unexpectedly" happen again?

January 28, 2014
Durable goods orders unexpectedly plunge in December

(Reuters) - Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods unexpectedly fell in December as did a gauge of planned business spending on capital goods, which could cast a shadow on an otherwise bright economic outlook.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The Good Fed/Bad Fed Routine

The following chart shows the real home equity loans at all commercial banks per civilian employed (December 2013 dollars).


Click to enlarge.

A linear trend failure *and* an exponential trend failure? All in the same chart? I think I just died and went to trend failure heaven!

October 27, 2005
Bernanke: There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust

U.S. house prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years, noted Bernanke, currently chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, in testimony to Congress's Joint Economic Committee. But these increases, he said, "largely reflect strong economic fundamentals," such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households.

Wikipedia: Good cop/bad cop

The good cop/bad cop routine is a common dramatic technique in cinema and television, where the bad cop often goes beyond the boundary of legal behavior. A common variant to subvert expectations is to seemingly introduce the 'bad cop' first, only to reveal that he's actually the 'good cop' despite his harshness and that the real 'bad cop' is even worse.

If credit is the lifeblood of this economy, then we just need to work through this "soft patch" and all will be well again. Right?

Investopedia: Soft Patch

This term gained popularity when former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan used it in his review of the overall U.S. economy. Central banks often cut interest rates in an attempt to spur the economy through the soft patch.

Two quick questions and I'll let you go.

1. Where the @#$% is the good Fed?
2. Is it normal for a soft patch to last more than 5 years?

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart