The following chart shows the 20 year moving average of annual miles traveled per capita. A trend line in red has been added.Click to enlarge.This is definitely the most impressive "sure thing" failure yet. 0.9997! Sis boom bah!Sis boom bah.Describe the sound made when a sheep explodes.January 12, 2014Toyota Sees Auto Industry Growth Slowing in 2014Continued sales growth will be more a result of economic gains rather...
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Tampilkan postingan dengan label linear trend failure. Tampilkan semua postingan
Linear Trend Failure of the Day
Click to enlarge.It would seem that banks are not going to be paying people to take out mortgages after all. Who knew?Strike one more economic tailwind off the list.Source Data:St. Louis Fed: Origination Fees and Discount Points for 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortga...
Personal Income Growth (Musical Tribute)
Click to enlarge.It is not adjusted for inflation, population growth, or income inequality.See Also:Real Annual Disposable Personal Income per Capita GrowthEmployment Hump Déjà Vu (Musical Tribute)Source Data:St. Louis Fed: Personal Income Grow...
When Will the Next Auto Industry Bailout Occur?
The following chart shows the natural log of annual light auto sales divided by civilian employment. I'm using a natural log so that constant exponential growth (or in this case decay) can be seen as a straight line.Click to enlarge.Behold the two trend channel failures. The first was a massive failure to the downside and the next was a massive failure to the upside. Slow and steady recovery my @$$.And on that note,...
Seahawks: A Tale of Two Super Bowl Linear Trend Failures
12 seconds into the game, I opted to do some simple back of envelope extrapolation. The score was 2 to 0 and the game was 1/300th complete (barring overtime).Expected Final Score: 600 to 025 seconds into the game, I saw the error of my folly. My model was breaking down! We were clearly losing momentum!At halftime, I revised my estimate using a much larger data set. The score was 22 to 0 and the game was 50% complete.Expected...
Housing's Addiction and Recovery (Musical Tribute)
The following chart shows owner occupied housing units.Jane's Addiction - Mountain SongCash inCash in now honeyCash in nowCash in now babyCash in now honeyCash in Miss SmithCash in now babySource Data:St. Louis Fed: Owner Occupied Housing Uni...
A Workin' Man's Growth, Stagnation, and Crash Model
The following chart shows real monthly manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft per civilian employed (December 2013 dollars). I am using quarterly averages to smooth things out a bit.Click to enlarge.Green trend lines represent growth.Yellow trend lines represent stagnation.Red trend lines represent "soft patches."What's the worst that could "unexpectedly" happen again?January 28, 2014Durable...
The Good Fed/Bad Fed Routine
The following chart shows the real home equity loans at all commercial banks per civilian employed (December 2013 dollars).Click to enlarge.A linear trend failure *and* an exponential trend failure? All in the same chart? I think I just died and went to trend failure heaven!October 27, 2005Bernanke: There's No Housing Bubble to Go BustU.S. house prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years, noted Bernanke,...
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