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The following chart shows the annual change in the semiannual average of new one family homes sold in the West Census Region.Click to enlarge.What's the worst that could happen from here? Okay, sure. The growth rate is currently negative and has been falling for 18 months. That's just this winter's East Coast's polar vortex temporarily rippling back through space and time though. Any rational optimist can see that.Further,...

The following chart shows the annual growth in the S&P 500 Index divided by the annual growth in retail sales (excluding food services). I offer two data sets. One starts at 2004:Q1 (in black) and the other starts at 2010:Q2 (in blue). A parabolic trend line has been added for each series.Click to enlarge.Note that both parabolic trends are nearly identical. So much for the "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice...

The following chart shows annual nonstore retail sales as a fraction of total retail sales (excluding food services).Click to enlarge.The growth trend is extrapolated out to 2050. I'm simply showing what the future will look like if the current trend continues. If 10% causes shopping mall pain now (which it clearly does), then what would 20% do in just 17 more years? Or 40% just 17 years after that?A 4.2% growth rate...

The following chart shows real GDP.Click to enlarge.Four exponential trend lines and their growth rates have been added.Note that each time an exponential trend fails, it is replaced with an exponential trend of lesser quality. What doesn't kill us, doesn't make us stronger. Go figure.The next chart shows the long-term trend of those growth rates. I'm using the midpoint of my hand-picked expansions as the x-axis.Click...

The following chart shows the US trade deficit with China divided by the price of crude oil (annualized billions of barrels).Click to enlarge.It shows the amount of oil China could buy if they were to use their entire trade surplus with us to do so. That's assuming the price of oil would not be driven even higher in response to increased purchases of course, which is no doubt a bad assumption.The next chart plots the...

The following chart shows the 6-month moving average of the annual growth in clothing and clothing accessory store retail sales per capita. Keep in mind that it is not adjusted for inflation.Click to enlarge.We've experienced a lot of weather over the past few years. I doubt there's any reason to worry about the trend.Source Data:St. Louis Fed: Custom Cha...

The following chart shows the retail sales at food services and drinking places divided by the sales at food and beverage stores.Click to enlarge.Our service economy apparently requires us to grow the amount we spend at restaurants compared to the amount we spend at food and beverage stores. Put another way, our service economy requires ever increasing amounts of service lest we slip into recession.I know what you may...

The following chart shows the annual change in beer, wine, and distilled alcoholic beverage wholesalers' sales.Click to enlarge.Don't let the trend line concern you. As seen in the next chart, I assure you that we are more than prepared to throw a legendary party!Click to enlarge.Just look at all that inventory accumulation. Yes, sir. Somebody must know something. The party's definitely coming!Saturday night - highSaturday...