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The following chart shows real annualized private office construction spending per capita (October 2013 dollars).


Click to enlarge.



Correction:

I originally posted that this was real monthly private construction spending per capita. The data is monthly but it is a seasonally adjusted annual rate. The chart remains the same, only the description changes.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The following chart shows the 6-month moving average of the monthly commercial and industrial loan growth at all commercial banks.


Click to enlarge.



April 14, 2009
FRB: Speech--Bernanke, Four Questions about the Financial Crisis


Update:

I originally posted that this chart was showing the annual change. It is showing the monthly change. Sorry about that! The conclusions and the data remain the same though, as only the description of the chart changes.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of annualized production and nonsupervisory sign (durable goods) employee minutes worked per capita.


Click to enlarge.

New businesses need signs. Right?

The signs aren't looking so good, both short-term and long-term.

Update:

After further review, I noticed that the chart's data was per capita and not per 1,000 people. That's been fixed.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment
St. Louis Fed: Population

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of annualized production and nonsupervisory investment advice employee minutes worked per capita.


Click to enlarge.

As seen in the long-term trend, the "expert" advice is spewing exponentially. It's as if the floodgates have been opened. That said, it looks like we're starting to run out of greater fools again though. Oh oh.

The next chart shows the 12-month moving average of how much these financial "experts" are paid per hour in inflation adjusted terms.


Click to enlarge.

Is it any wonder they are so optimistic? Stocks for the long run, blah, blah, blah. Now cough up $38.20 (February's recent peak) or forever be priced out!

As a side note, who really believes the advice is nearly twice as good as it was in 1991? We might need to hedonically adjust that advice inflation to factor in dotcom bubbles, housing bubbles, subprime fiascos, debt crises, higher unemployment, $100 oil, perma-ZIRP, and what not. Few "experts" could have seen that coming! Can't blame them for the perfect despair storm. The view out the rear view mirror looked fantastic!

This is not investment advice.

Update:

After further review, I noticed that the first chart's data was per capita and not per 1,000 people. That's been fixed.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment
St. Louis Fed: CPI
St. Louis Fed: Population

For the Optimists:

Click to enlarge.

It's a sure thing! Can't lose!

For the Pessimists:

Click to enlarge.

It's a sure thing! Can't win!

I sure wish there was a way to break the tie between the optimists and the pessimists. I could probably start by pointing out that the optimists have at least one thing wrong. Constant growth really should be using an exponential trend and not just a linear one. Here's the problem with a linear trend. If it takes roughly 20 years for median income to double once (as seen in the first chart for the most part), then it will take an additional 40 years for it to double again. See why linear trends kind of stink when it comes to growth?

That's what makes the pessimist case slightly more believable. Growth is definitely slowing. Both charts clearly show it. It's just that the first chart shows it in a much more subtle way. What would happen if the growth continues to slow?

September 9, 2013
Study: Demographics to Drag Down Median Income


Oh oh. Why?


Women! I knew it! The *real* men among us will just need to convince women to each work 2 jobs! That seems totally doable in this increasingly automated and outsourced world with chronically high unemployment. I suggest, "I bet you can't work *two* jobs! You're just a woman!" That's sure to be a big hit in any household!

And when I say big hit, I mean that the future's so bright I gotta prepare a cold compress for my eye. I'll have quite the shiner! Although optimism means that I can expect the best possible outcome, I just don't have it in me. I'm clearly planning for more of a pessimistic worst-case bodily injury type of outcome, lol.

In all seriousness, we're so @#$%ed long-term. This is not investment advice.

This post inspired by Revolting as seen at Retirement Blues.

Update:

I originally stated that this data was in inflation adjusted dollars. It was pointed out to me in the comments by mab that this data didn't look inflation adjusted though. After further review, he was absolutely right. Although the data source used inflation adjusted data for the 2-year and 3-year median income averages, it did not use it for the single year averages (which I was using). I have added the "my personal blunders" tag to this post. I should have spotted it. All the conclusions here remain valid. In inflation adjusted terms, things are much, much worse.

Source Data:
U.S. Census: Income