The following chart shows industrial capacity per capita (industrial production index adjusted for capacity utilization and population).Click to enlarge.That's a 0.998 correlation over 27 years of data (Jan 1967 to Jan 1994). And then... Boom! Trend broken big time. That has to be one of the most impressive trend failures I've ever posted on this blog. It was so incredibly consistent and predictable right up until it...
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Tampilkan postingan dengan label parabolic trend failure. Tampilkan semua postingan
Parabolic Trend Failure of the Day: Retail Hourly Earnings
The following chart shows the average hourly earnings for retail employees (not adjusted for inflation). I'm using quarterly averages to smooth out the data.Click to enlarge.The parabolic trend line in red uses the data points in red. As a side note, I first tried to use an exponential trend line but it turns out that the data was not growing exponentially (not even remotely). Parabolic is so much more fun anyway though!...
Rome Did Not Fall in a Day
The following chart shows the natural log of real disposable personal income per capita. Once again, constant exponential growth shows up as a straight line when using natural logs.Click to enlarge.There are at least a few things worth considering.1. Due to rising income inequality, the typical person isn't doing nearly as well as this chart would suggest.2. As automation takes on more and more human work, how will...
Channeling the Teenagers of Christmas Past
In my last post, I presented the following chart that showed the fraction of the civilian noninstitutional population aged 16 to 19 who are employed.Click to enlarge.It is disturbing to me that we can't and quite possibly won't ever get back to the trend channel. I therefore propose a desperate solution. If the teenagers can't come to the mountain, then let's bring the mountain to the teenagers! All we need to do is...
The Signs of Recovery
The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of annualized production and nonsupervisory sign (durable goods) employee minutes worked per capita.Click to enlarge.New businesses need signs. Right?The signs aren't looking so good, both short-term and long-term.Update:After further review, I noticed that the chart's data was per capita and not per 1,000 people. That's been fixed.Source Data:BLS: EmploymentSt....
Our Used Merchandise Growth Industry
The following chart shows employees working at used merchandise stores divided by all retail trade employees.Click to enlarge.The "sure thing" parabolic trend has been replaced with the "sure thing" exponential trend.The future's so bright I gotta buy used rose-colored glasses.Source Data:BLS: Employme...
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel
Click to enlarge.Economics is not rocket science. It just looks like it sometimes.Jet FuelOil prices increased about fivefold from 2003 to 2008, raising fears that world petroleum production is becoming unable to keep up with demand. The fact that there are few alternatives to petroleum for aviation fuel adds urgency to the search for alternatives. Twenty-five airlines were bankrupted or stopped operations in the first...
Social Insecurity (Musical Tribute)
The following chart shows the 10-year moving average of personal current transfer receipts divided by private production and nonsupervisory employee earnings. I have added a parabolic trend line in red.Click to enlarge.Can you say epic trend failure?AC/DC - Down Payment BluesGet myself a steady jobSome responsibilityCan't even feed my catOn Social SecurityHiding from the rent manThey make me wanna crySheriff knockin'...
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