Click to enlarge.The Fed wants 2% inflation per year. If real household median income and real household debt per capita can't get us there, then oil will have to do.Here's the good news. If real household median income starts to fall again, then the Fed may help raise the price of oil to compensate again. In fact, the lower real median income goes, the more help they may offer! Genius!Put another way, the less you...
Tampilkan postingan dengan label stagflation. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label stagflation. Tampilkan semua postingan
5% Interest Rates and $500 Gold! Hahaha!
The following chart shows the natural log of the quarterly average of the 10-year treasury yield. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth (or decay) is seen as a straight line.Click to enlarge.I have added a parabolic trend channel in red that uses the data points shown in red. I have also added a parabolic trend in blue that uses all of the data points. Note that the correlation of the blue trend line...
Industrial Mining Production vs. Real Gold Price (Musical Tribute)
Click to enlarge.The black line shows the annual average of the industrial mining production index (left scale). Note that it recently set a new record.The blue line shows the annual average gold price adjusted by the consumer price index (right scale, December 2013 dollars). It grew exponentially starting in 2000 and very nearly set a new record. It has recently backed off though.Let's zoom in a bit.Click to enlarge.Satellite...
The Death Of Services Pricing Power
The following chart shows the consumer price index for services divided by the consumer price index for nondurables.Click to enlarge.Goodbye service economy tailwinds.Hello service economy headwinds.Perhaps Bernanke can give our service economy some inflation but he sure can't seem to target where it goes. As seen in the chart, we eventually managed to get back to the trend line in the aftermath of the 1970s. We're...
The $420 Question
The following chart shows real monthly exports per capita (September 2013 dollars).Click to enlarge.Got fork?Source Data:St. Louis Fed: Custom Cha...
Gold vs. Crude Foodstuffs & Feedstuffs
In theory, how far could gold drop in price relative to the basic necessity of food?In the following chart, I'm adjusting the price of gold for inflation but instead of using the CPI I'm using the producer price index for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs (which has doubled since 2000).Click to enlarge.It appears to me that gold could drop quite a bit more (relative to crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs). The exponential...
Peak Vehicle Miles Traveled per Capita (Musical Tribute)
Click to enlarge.Source Data:St. Louis Fed: Vehicle Miles Traveled per Capi...
ZIRP: How Long?
Click to enlarge.I'm not suggesting that World War III will soon break out, but I am suggesting that ZIRP may be here for far longer than most think possible. We're currently "only" four years into the chart.November 18, 2009Fed official: Rates could stay put until 2012Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said policy makers may not start to raise rates until early 2012 while facing a “too low for...
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