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The black line shows the annual average of the industrial mining production index (left scale). Note that it recently set a new record.

The blue line shows the annual average gold price adjusted by the consumer price index (right scale, December 2013 dollars). It grew exponentially starting in 2000 and very nearly set a new record. It has recently backed off though.

Let's zoom in a bit.


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September 23, 2007
Productivity Miracle


May 22, 2013
20 Insane Bitcoin Mining Rigs


Mining rocks to hoard? Mining bitcoins to hoard? It's all good if it adds to GDP! Right?

This is not investment advice. As always, just opinions.

And on that note, here are a few bonus opinions. I find it insane that we needlessly waste any of the world's resources to mine bitcoins. Is the world really going to be a better place because of it? Is this the kind of productivity miracle that will lead to future prosperity? It's shameful that bitcoins require any energy at all to create. Good grief. At the very least, they could have made a computer game out of it that's fun to play. But no, it's just automated computers (in ever greater numbers) mining virtual bitcoins (in dwindling numbers). Put another way, it requires ever increasing streams of energy to generate fewer and fewer bitcoins. What a frickin' long-term plan of wasted effort that is (not necessarily from a miner's perspective, but for society in general).

At least gold gives you something shiny to fondle once the mining's complete. I say this as one who owned gold from 2004 to 2006. It treated me very well over that period. No complaints. No desire to buy it again though (at these prices anyway). Your opinions may vary of course.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart (Long-Term)
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart (Short-Term)

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I'm experiencing a strange feeling of déjà vu.

September 18, 2013
Bernanke Is Terrified Of Higher Mortgage Rates And The Debt Ceiling Debate


See Also:
The Tapeworm Hungers!

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: 30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate (YoY)

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Source Data:
FRB: Z.1 Release

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Would you Kindly? a VG Quote Thread


No! No! No! What does he know? He's just some Roman General in a video game! Advance towards the enemy! Towards them! Swing for the fencers! Can't lose!

See Also:
Mish: Durable Goods Orders Plunge 7.3%, Nondefense New Orders for Capital Goods Plunge 15.4%; Plunge to Accelerate?

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of total vehicle miles traveled.


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What recovery? For what it is worth, I do not believe we will ever reach that peak again. If four full years of "recovery" combined with 4+ years of ZIRP hasn't made any progress towards returning to our former illusionary glory, then what can?

This chart implies that there will not be any long-term auto industry growth within the U.S. (other than the temporary pent-up demand created during recessions). How's that for greatly depressing?

The next chart shows the total vehicle miles traveled per capita.


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I know this sounds crazy, but ever since yesterday on the road, I've been seeing this shape. Shaving cream, pillows. Dammit! I know this. I know what this is! This means something. This is important. - Roy Neary, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, 1977

As seen in the chart, welcome to 1998. I turned into a permabear in the fall of 2004 (just as the upward trend was beginning to peak). I watched the stock market roar on without me into 2007. I then watched as the stock market come roaring back down. It's roaring back up again on the misguided hopes of luring me back in perhaps. I have but one thing to say.

Yawn.

July 19, 2013
Calculated Risk: DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 0.9% in May


Based on what? Put me down for never. Seriously. If we're driving even half as many miles per capita after our population has doubled, then I would be extremely surprised. It would mean that the virtual reality video games of the distant future, pardon my language, suck. It would also mean that Amazon.com hasn't figured out a way to automate most retail sales jobs (or for that matter, jobs in general). I'm certainly not betting on that outcome! This is assuming our population even will double of course. I have my doubts on that as well. Things happen to countries stuck in ZIRP.

Working Age Population in Japan

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July 9, 2013
Baby bust? National birthrate hits an all-time low due to weak economic recovery


Like I said previously, welcome to 1998.

I'll leave on this bonus thought. If the economy of the future really does stink then perhaps more people will start to carpool. Could there be any more single occupancy vehicles out on the road? I'm not being judgmental. I'm as guilty as the next person. I'm just saying that there is plenty of fat to cut when the fat needs cutting. And as a side note, Ben Bernanke desperately wants us to not cut the fat, lest we experience Great Recession II, return of the killer recession. Sigh.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Moving 12-Month Total Vehicle Miles Traveled
St. Louis Fed: Moving 12-Month Total Vehicle Miles Traveled per Capita
St. Louis Fed: Working Age Population: Aged 15 and Over: All Persons for Japan

August 7, 2013
Time for the gaming industry to take addiction seriously


Hey, perhaps this can be done in the tobacco and fast food industries too! Right there in the design stage!

As the new CEO of Philip Morris, it has come to my attention that cigarettes are very addicting. What can we do to stop that? I'm thinking the next generation cigarette could have a thin protective prophylaxis glued around it after it is dipped in breath freshening mouthwash. Let's brainstorm!

As the new CEO of McDonalds, it has come to my attention that Big Macs are very addicting. What can we do to stop that? I'm thinking that the next generation Big Mac could use unsweetened yogurt in place of the special sauce and the meat could be replaced with dried kelp. Let's brainstorm!

As the new CEO of 7-11, it has come to my attention that our Big Gulps are very addicting. What can we do to stop that? I'm thinking that the next generation Big Gulp cup and its straw could be mostly filled with resin to reduce both the quantity and the flow. Let's brainstorm!

Genius!

Here's the perfect ad campaign straight from Despair.com!

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I finally pulled into first place on the Playstation 3's version of the Rocksmith Scale Runner mini-game.

Note the "wide" margin of just 3,200 points out of 162,498,000 points. Hey, it sucks to be in second place right now. Not my problem! ;)

In all seriousness, it is not a coincidence that the margin is so small. I played for many, many hours today. I felt no great desire to pad my score once I reached my goal. I could have added roughly 100k had I improved just one of the 11 scales by just one note. It was certainly doable. What's the point though? I expect to improve my score in the months ahead anyway. I don't think I've peaked yet.

I've only hit 274 notes in a row twice so far. Fortunately, both were in the same game today (on two different scales). It made getting into #1 a bit easier. It still took most of the day to get there though. 8 hours of play? This marks the most I've ever played this game in one day. I'm definitely ready to face plant.

As if my posting activity wasn't low enough, don't expect much from me for the rest of the summer (unless the economy implodes again). I'll be spending more time outside. I should post my weight charts but I'm just not motivated enough I guess. I'm not even tracking my weight on a daily basis any longer (for those interested, I think the seasonal effects are finally working in my favor now).

Climbing an extra 20 flights (or more) every day has definitely become a permanent habit. It's not even a question of motivation. It's kind of like brushing my teeth. For what it is worth, I managed to climb 20 flights on the stair climber in just 2 minutes and 57 seconds on the 8th of June. I don't know what my previous record was, but that definitely blew it out. Hiking season here I come! :)

See Also:
Two
Four
Five
Nine

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At 5:00am I thought I'd practice Rocksmith's Scale Runner and call it a night. 5 hours and 15 minutes later I hobbled off to the couch and collapsed, lol.

I averaged 271.9 notes per scale on 11 scales (3 scales were 273 notes). Averaging 272.2 notes per scale would get the top score. A speed improvement of just 0.1% will get me there.

Rhetorical OCD question of the day...


See Also:
Four
Five
Nine