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The following chart shows the retail sales at food services and drinking places divided by the sales at food and beverage stores.


Click to enlarge.

Our service economy apparently requires us to grow the amount we spend at restaurants compared to the amount we spend at food and beverage stores. Put another way, our service economy requires ever increasing amounts of service lest we slip into recession.

I know what you may be thinking. It was very cold. People stayed home. Okay, let's go with that and try a thought experiment. I shall be your consumption guinea pig. Buckle in. It's going to be an laboratory adventure!

I'm sitting at home. The weather is too awful to leave the house. I'm a consumer, and man have I got some pent-up consumption demand. I'm sipping my hot chocolate. I'm looking over at my computer. I take a few more sips. I look at my computer again. I take another sip. I see a smart phone on the coffee table. I drink the last sip from a now empty mug. Empty! Bah! Say it isn't so! I can't stand it! I'm going to make a purchase and have it delivered to me! Snow be damned! It's the only way to end the agony!

The following chart shows the annual growth in nonstore retail sales. We should definitely see the cold weather surge in all its glory! It must be there!


Click to enlarge.

Hmmm. There's a Christmas surge within a declining trend channel and a hangover to go with it. That's not quite what we were looking for with our optimistic cold weather theory. Oh, well. Can't say we didn't try!



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #1
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #2

iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF


Perfect!

It is just like cash, only it isn't cash. It's a professionally managed bond fund! Genius!

Check out the fund's chart. What's not to like? $2.4 billion in assets! Very popular!

July 20, 2009
Focus on short end of yield curve, PIMCO says

Focus as you patiently await the end of ZIRP! 5 years so far! But we really, really, really mean it this time!




This concludes today's sarcasm report. :)

The following chart shows the annual change in beer, wine, and distilled alcoholic beverage wholesalers' sales.


Click to enlarge.

Don't let the trend line concern you. As seen in the next chart, I assure you that we are more than prepared to throw a legendary party!


Click to enlarge.

Just look at all that inventory accumulation. Yes, sir. Somebody must know something. The party's definitely coming!




Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #1
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #2

Click to enlarge.

The blue line (left scale) shows the civilian labor force participation rate of those aged 25 to 54. It peaked in the late 1990s and it has been pretty much going down ever since.

The red line (left scale) shows the civilian labor force participation rate of those aged 55 and over. It bottomed in the early 1990s and it has been generally going up ever since (recent flattening notwithstanding).

The green line (right scale) shows the civilian labor force participation rate of those aged 25 to 54 divided by the civilian labor force participation rate of those aged 55 and over.

In a truly healthy economy, should those aged 25 to 54 really be dropping out of the labor force at faster pace than those aged 55 and over (as seen in that green line since the early 1990s)?



Wikipedia: Giant Sucking Sound


In space no one can hear you scream suck.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The following chart shows annual food services and drinking places employment growth.


Click to enlarge.

3.7% annual growth! Very impressive. Each time we get a recession (the deeper the recession the better), we get more growth. More recessions for the win! Genius!

We just need to stay in that strong, resilient, predictable, and consistent trend channel long-term, preferably near the top. The long-term trend is so obvious that I don't even feel the need to add a trend line. Did I mention how stable and sustainable the channel is? Just look at it! A few more years of this and it will be almost impossible to leave the channel no matter what happens. Who doesn't love certainty?

The annual data in the first chart doesn't include 2014 yet, but I can give you a glimpse of how the year is starting off using monthly data.


Click to enlarge.

There are a whopping 10.5 million people employed in this rapidly growing industry. Growth appears to have peaked back in July. As of January, the growth is still above 3% though and there's nothing but biscuits and gravy on the horizon! Can't you see it? And with average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers in this industry coming in at $10.96 (December 2013), what's not to like?

In honor of the charts, I suggest we all try to work Chipotle into our conversations (more than we already do). Start the day off right. When we wake up each morning we should exclaim, "What a great day to Chipotle!" Or alternatively, "The future's so bright I gotta Chipotle!"

January 30, 2014
Traffic jump boosts Chipotle restaurant sales, stock soars


People braved the extreme weather to eat burritos? It's a frickin' polar vortex miracle!



See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #1
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #2

Long-time reader mab offers the following comment in this post:


In my opinion, this really deserves its own Christmas ship musical tribute!



Sing along! You know the tune!

Out in the Harbor

Out in the harbor, cruise ship ills
In through the dust mask, doctor bills
Down with economies, it destroys
Spreading little bugs, with sick bellboys

Oh, no, no! Who could've known?
Oh, no, no! Who wouldn't groan?
Out in the harbor, sick, sick, sick
In through the dust mask, it's ick, ick, ick

First came the sickness of little Bill
Oh dear God ships make him ill
Gave him a virus to choke and wheeze
One that fevered him to high degrees

Oh, no, no! Who could've known?
Oh, no, no! Who wouldn't groan?
Out in the harbor, sick, sick, sick
In through the dust mask, it's ick, ick, ick

Next came the sickness of little Mitt
Have we ever seen so much vomit?
Here was some fluid for what he lacked
Also a drug some say acts like crack

Oh, no, no! Who could've known?
Oh, no, no! Who wouldn't groan?
Out in the harbor, sick, sick, sick
In through the dust mask, it's ick, ick, ick

No day is complete without at least a little gallows humor. Sigh.

The following chart compares the trillions of dollars the monetary base has grown (in blue) to the trillions of dollars household net worth has grown (in red) since the first quarter of 2009.


Click to enlarge.

Each dollar the Fed spends gets us back ten! Why on earth is the Fed tapering the sure thing? We need even moar leverage! Not less!



Why hasn't anyone else thought of this? Genius!

December 17-18, 2013
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee


Oops. Please disregard my crazy theory above. It would seem that I was offering the very thing the Fed is most worried about. You have to admit that it seemed like a darned good theory on paper though. I just hadn't factored in any unintended consequences. In my defense, it's really easy to do once I went down the "excessive risk-taking" path (gambling $10.8 trillion on a "sure thing" would definitely qualify).

Marrakesh Night Market



See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Click to enlarge.

It is not adjusted for inflation, population growth, or income inequality.



See Also:
Real Annual Disposable Personal Income per Capita Growth
Employment Hump Déjà Vu (Musical Tribute)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Personal Income Growth