The following chart shows the annual change in the semiannual average of new one family homes sold in the West Census Region.Click to enlarge.What's the worst that could happen from here? Okay, sure. The growth rate is currently negative and has been falling for 18 months. That's just this winter's East Coast's polar vortex temporarily rippling back through space and time though. Any rational optimist can see that.Further,...
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When Will the Next Auto Industry Bailout Occur?
The following chart shows the natural log of annual light auto sales divided by civilian employment. I'm using a natural log so that constant exponential growth (or in this case decay) can be seen as a straight line.Click to enlarge.Behold the two trend channel failures. The first was a massive failure to the downside and the next was a massive failure to the upside. Slow and steady recovery my @$$.And on that note,...
Building Permit Slowdown for Privately Owned 1-Unit Structures
The first chart shows the annual change in new privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits for 1-unit structures. I'm using quarterly averages to smooth out the noise a bit.Click to enlarge.Can't we just blame it the weather and call it good?The next chart shows just the data for Florida, Nevada, and Arizona (three of the previous housing bubble's largest hotspots).Click to enlarge.I guess it all depends...
The Good Fed/Bad Fed Routine
The following chart shows the real home equity loans at all commercial banks per civilian employed (December 2013 dollars).Click to enlarge.A linear trend failure *and* an exponential trend failure? All in the same chart? I think I just died and went to trend failure heaven!October 27, 2005Bernanke: There's No Housing Bubble to Go BustU.S. house prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years, noted Bernanke,...
Exponential Illusions vs. Linear Reality
Click to enlarge.The low points are following a linear trend, implying that growth is slowing over time. If it took 30 years for real net worth per capita to roughly double from 1982 to 2012, then it will take 60 years for it to roughly double again. That's assuming we even should extrapolate past history into the distant future of course. I for one am skeptical, especially now that we've entered a "QE Trap"."I sensed...
A Retail Sales Accident Waiting to Happen (Musical Tribute)
Click to enlarge.Monthly retail and food services sales per capita is shown in blue.Annual median household income is shown in red.Please factor in that neither series is adjusted for inflation. You are therefore looking at the raw data in all its grandeur.We must be incredibly optimistic as a society. I say this because the following is what Google offers me as search results.1. 8,870,000 search results for "Pent-Up...
The Three Little Pigs
Click to enlarge.BLOW IT DOWN... BUT, MAKE IT LOOK LIKE AN ACCIDENT.Source Data:St. Louis Fed: Custom Cha...
The Quote of the Year
November 21, 2012Macau grapples with booming casino economy“Macau is a complete illusion of prosperity because what we are building is only casinos, rooms and some shops with famous brands,” said lawmaker Jose Coutinho.Good thing we know bette...
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