Daily news sites

by:Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

For whatever it may be worth the following is something to seriously consider. rEpublicans especially should consider the implications of the article. It may very well hold the key to any hoped for future success by the party of blinders.

CBS DC - The median net worth of American households has dropped to a 43-year low as the lower and middle classes appear poorer and less stable than they have been since 1969.

According to a recent study by New York University economics professor Edward N. Wolff, median net worth is at the decades-low figure of $57,000 (in 2010 dollars). And as the numbers in his study reflect, the situation only appears worse when all the statistics are taken as a whole.

According to Wolff, between 1983 and 2010, the percentage of households with less than $10,000 in assets (using constant 1995 dollars) rose from 29.7 percent to 37.1 percent. The “less than $10,000″ figure includes the numerous households that have no assets at all, or “negative assets,” which is otherwise known as “debt.”

Over that same period of time, the wealthiest 1 percent of American households increased their average wealth by 71 percent.

As noted by Daily Finance, from 1983 to 2010 the share of total wealth held by the richest 10 percent of American households increased from 68.2 percent to 76.7 percent. Meanwhile, all the rest of Americans lost financial ground.

An August Pew Research Center study found that many in the middle-class are divided on how they believe his gap widened.

Fully 85 percent of self-described middle-class adults say it is more difficult now than it was a decade ago for middle-class people to maintain their standard of living. ... {Read More}

Serious considerations for serious people. No?

Via: Memeorandum

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

As we approach "the cliff" as in fiscal, the nation's Representatives and President remain more concerned about their political viability/legacy than about the interests of thew American people.

I don't know about anyone else, but I find myself wondering just what the Founders of this Great Nation might think about our current situation. As the Children in Congress and the President are playing mind games with the American people the following is as close to a common sense analysis as I have heard of late.

TownHall - ... Simpson-Bowles, for all its faults, was conducted in an open and transparent manner and brought disparate political players into a room to forge a serious compromise. It overhauls and streamlines our byzantine tax code, takes some important first steps on entitlements, and reduces and caps federal spending. On substance, I'd wager that it would be considerably better than anything Obama and Boehner might produce after weeks of behind-closed-doors acrimony with the proverbial gun to their heads. Politically, it paints Democrats into a tough corner. Republicans could make a grand show of reluctantly supporting Simpson-Bowles for the betterment of the country. Ideally, the press conference would be led by Paul Ryan, who might explain why he voted against the plan as a commissioner, but is now willing to set aside some of his strong ideological preferences to move the nation forward. They would remind viewers that the proposal they're now backing only exists because President Obama specifically and publicly asked for it. Plus, more Democrats than Republicans voted for it, including Harry Reid's top lieutenant in the Senate. Put simply, Simpson-Bowles represents the very embodiment of bipartisan collaboration and problem solving -- precisely the sort of thing "moderates," the media, and the public are always demanding. It would be exceedingly difficult for Democrats to paint the plan as radical or draconian in light of the commission's origins and participants. The GOP's "party of no" problem would also be hugely diminished; after all, they would have just signed on to the president's commission, with the previously recalcitrant Paul Ryan magnanimously leading the way. It would be fascinating to watch the president and his allies try to denounce and reject the very proposal he called for.

Of course, all of this would require significant coordination and buy-in from Congressional Republicans -- no small thing, to be sure. Many House members in particular find major swaths of the plan rather unpalatable. They would need to be convinced that this idea would still be the best chess move for conservatism, both strategically and tactically. Paul Ryan's agreement and cooperation would also be essential. Furthermore, Republicans would have to be willing to stomach quite a bit of political stagecraft in unveiling their announcement. The reveal would be big, hyped, and dramatic -- out of necessity. Why? To capture the media's attention and earn heavy coverage. Basically, the public would need to know that it happened. They wouldn't need to internalize all the specifics, but they'd have to hear that Republicans offered a "historic" compromise by agreeing to the controversial plan authored by Obama's bipartisan fiscal commission.

Best case scenario: Republicans catch Democrats off-guard, and (much or most of) the plan is adopted. At the very least, GOP negotiators would gain major leverage in fashioning a less horrific final compromise. Worst case scenario: Democrats firmly reject the plan, further talks stall, and the we go over the cliff... {Read More}

My bet, we go off the cliff. Why, because either the dEmocrats or the rEpublicans will once again prove their inability to think beyond their own...(fill in the blank).

Via: Memeorandum

Today is an exciting day for me as my little cottage is on Feature Friday over at 6th Street Design School. Kirsten was one of the first blogs I got hooked on and I've always loved this series. Head on over and check it out.



Happy Weekend!

I know that lately I embrace the vivid colors combination in my outfits, so I decided to make a radical switch. Pastels are always a great alternative, no matter the season and Jil Sander gives us the perfect example in F/W collection, where pale pink looks better that ever in the Winter season. I was happy to approach this delicate palette a few days ago, and here is the result!
Grey jeans and ankle boots, pale lilac shirt, covered up with this wonderful pink -antique wool coat (found it in a vintage shop). From the same vintage shop, I bought these rhinestone necklaces, back in the Summer, and wore it for the first time now.
I hope you like it !



                                                                              Coat: vintage/ option Here
                                                                              Jeans: Mango/ similar Here
                                                                              Ankle boots: Asos
                                                                              Bag: Phillip Lim/ option Here
                                                                              Ring: Vince Camuto
                                                                              Necklaces: vintage
                                                                              Shirt: Express
                                                                              Sunglasses: thanks to zeroUV/ Here

Click to enlarge.



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Velocity of M2 Money Stock

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

“If once the people become inattentive to the public affairs, you and I, and Congress and Assemblies, Judges and Governors, shall all become wolves. It seems to be the law of our general nature, in spite of individual exceptions.”

Thomas Jefferson quote

And so it seems...!

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

Going back to school at 60 is to say the very least, insane. However, education aimed at opening up new opportunities that are about as far removed from ones prior 40 + year experiences can be invigorating and exciting. It does come at a cost however. For me it is the cost of not having the amount of time to blog that I really desire. But then again there is something about priorities, right?

Anyway, my current focus is on educating myself in the field of heath and fitness so that I become qualified to help others who are desirous of improving their health and fitness achieve their goals and lead a longer and healthier life. At least that is my goal at 60, having achieved most of my goals set earlier in life.

With the preceding explanation aside I must say that I find it almost comical that within a month of the 2012 election the analysts an pundits are already concerning themselves with the 2014 mid term elections. I mean do we NOT have immediate and pressing problems that need to IMMEDIATELY be resolved? Maybe it's just me. I don't know, and maybe it has come to the point because of the political insanity of the two major parties I no longer care. The stress of caring is not worth the possible health expense of the obviously futile effort. But then again when the stress gets too great we will have ObamaCare, right?

The rEpublican party it seems is hell bent on insuring they remain the minority party. Perhaps even becoming extinct in the next 25 - 50 years. Focusing right now on why the party lost and strategy for the future, as the following article does, does not help solve the problems that exist today. Smart, and or wise people know the latter is more important than the former. For certain that is my never humble opinion anyway.

Sabato's Crystal Ball - As the 2012 election fades into the history books, we begin our first look at the 2014 contests for Senate, House and Governor. Let’s start with the Senate, which will be the site of an intense battle for control once again.

Before looking ahead at the Republicans’ prospects to gain the six seats they need to win control of the Senate, it is first important — though for Republicans, painful — to look back at the past two Senate cycles.

In 2010, Republicans probably threw away three seats when they nominated weak candidates in Colorado, Delaware and Nevada. Then, in the just-concluded election, they threw away, at a minimum, two more seats in Indiana and Missouri (thanks to the disastrous candidacies of Richard Mourdock and Todd Akin). And that’s not counting other Senate races where different Republican candidates might have performed better or even won in Florida, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio and Virginia.

So instead of having a tied Senate, or a tiny majority for one side or the other, Republicans are in the unenviable position of needing to levitate out of a deep hole they’ve dug for themselves. Only then can they end Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-NV) six-year (and counting) leadership of the Senate.

The 113th Congress is slated to open in early January with Democrats holding a 55-45 edge in the U.S. Senate. (The number includes two independents, Sen.-elect Angus King of Maine and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who will caucus with the Democrats.) This assumes that the composition of the Senate does not change; it’s always possible that a senator will leave office prematurely, perhaps to take another position — for instance, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) might join the Obama administration as secretary of state or defense.

Skip

At first blush, the 2014 Senate map presents some promising opportunities for Republicans. Of the 33 seats that will be contested in November 2014, Republicans only have to defend 13 while Democrats have to defend 20. And the Republican seats — as is obvious from Map 1 — are almost entirely situated in deeply Republican states. In 12 of the 13 states currently represented by Republicans on this map, President Obama won 45.5% of the vote or less in all except Maine (which he won easily).

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney captured seven of the 20 states where Democrats will defend seats: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota and West Virginia. Of those seven, only North Carolina, where Romney won by about two points, was even close at the presidential level. In the other six states, Obama’s best performance was in Montana, where he secured just 41.7%. Given that midterm electorates are typically smaller, older and whiter than presidential electorates — which generally will make them more Republican — and given that Democrats are dangerously exposed in several Romney states, Republicans have a multitude of juicy targets, while Democrats have few.

That said, let’s recall that at this time two years ago, Republicans also had an attractive playing field: They had to defend only 10 seats, while Democrats had to defend 23. And yet Democrats actually ended up netting two seats. Not to be overly cruel, but the GOP had to try hard to blow the Senate in 2012 — and their efforts were amply rewarded.

In order to capitalize on the new opportunities presented by the 2014 Senate map, Republican voters are going to have to make wiser choices in primaries than they made in 2010 and 2012. But has the party base learned its lesson? It is not at all clear, and efforts by the Republican leadership in D.C. to impose preferred candidates likely won’t be met well in many states in the next go-round either. ... {Read More}

Okay, I get it. The party is licking it's (well earned) wounds. Understandable. But the important thing is to address the pressing issues of today, right now. By that I mean resolve, or at least partially resolve them before moving on to 2014. One thing is for certain, if the rEbublican party demonstrates an active willingness to reach across the aisle and resolve the very real and pressing problems that confront America today, and then present a viable and better alternative than the dEmocrats for tomorrow, they will succeed in remaining relevant and maybe even becoming the majority again. A new age demands a new approach to solving old problems.

On the other hand pundits and analysts have a job to do. Whether it helps resolve the problem or not. Or Maybe it's just me.

Now back to other priorities...


VIA: Memorandum

Click to enlarge.


Click to enlarge.

Want really extreme? I will be extremely surprised if we ever manage to resume that trend in red again. Sigh.

See Also:
Extreme Initial Claims Danger v.24

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims
DOL: Initial Claims

    The last but not the least outfit in my Lulu's.com project is inspired by Fauvism art. I let this outfit the last one because is the most colorful and fun from this series of 4( you can see Baroque insipred HERE, Art Deco inspired HERE and Impressionism inspired HERE).
Red neoprene pants, a floral top, mustard shoes and my Land's End fuchsia coat are a wild mix and make a perfect sense why "les fauves" translated means "the wild beasts".
I hope you enjoyed this miniseries of "wearable art"as much I loved wearing them!



                                                                        Neoprene pants: Alice Moon thanks to Lulu's.com/ Here 
                                                         Top: Under Skies thanks to Lulu's.com/ Here
                                                                        Shoes: Toi et Moi thanks to Lulu's.com/ Here
                                                                        Coat: Land's End/ option Here
                                                                        Shirt: J.Crew/ similar Here
                                                                        Clutch: New York & Company/ option Here 

Click to enlarge.

I started with nonfarm payrolls which already exclude the long-term decline in farm labor. I then subtracted the declining long-term trend in manufacturing employees. I then subtracted the awful construction employment numbers of late. And lastly, retail trade employment hasn't been performing well at all since the success of Amazon.com.

What's left? All that cherry picked employment trend goodness! That's what!

Oh, crap. It's still a massive exponential trend failure? 29.6 million jobs below trend? Seriously? Can't say I didn't try. Hey, at least there has been some growth since 2000. That's something I guess. Sigh.

And people wonder why I'm a permabear?

This post inspired by Rob Dawg's comments found here.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Click to enlarge.


Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

I know at this time of year there are more gift guides than Justin Bieber tweets, but you can stop the hunt. to & from has the very best one. Remember when the Sears catalog would arrive in the mail when you were a kid and you'd go thru each and every page of the toy section? This is just like that, only way better stuff.

The common theme out there is that the Fed is trying to create a wealth effect with its monetary policy. The wealthier we are the more we spend. I think that's safe to say.

Investors of the past made money in bonds. They also made money in stocks. Right?

If the Fed comes in and buys up bonds then that forces interest rates down. Right?

If interest rates on bonds are driven down then at some point investors can no longer get wealthy owning bonds though. Nobody's getting rich off of a -0.74% 10-year TIPS held to maturity. Right?

That would mean that the Fed has put a stop to any wealth building that bonds once did. Right?

If the Fed has removed one of the two most obvious ways for investors to get wealthy then perhaps someone can tell me how this is supposed to create a permanent wealth effect.

Oh, wait. I remember. Never mind.

It's all about inspiring confidence. What have confident investors been doing for the past few years? Doubled their money! That's what. It's a sure thing (again). Can't lose (again). No doubt about it. That's the one thing we can always count on. The stock market only goes up.

Let's look at this another way.

The Fed bought Investment A (bonds) but not Investment B (stocks). Clearly everyone needs to pile into Investment B then. That's just common sense.

Forehead. Desk. Whack. Whack. Whack.

As always, just opinions of course.

Matterhorn


Source Data:
Wikipedia: File:Matterhorn Riffelsee 2005-06-11.jpg
St. Louis Fed: All-Transactions House Price Index for Florida / Consumer Price Index

Click to enlarge.

Didn't I already post this chart this month? It sure rings a bell.

November 7, 2012
Exponential Trend Failure of the Day


Click to enlarge.

Let me redo it with a starting point of 1992.


Click to enlarge.

Oh, yeah. That's definitely the chart I was thinking of. Never mind. Sigh.

Source Data:
EIA: Weekly U.S. Product Supplied of Petroleum Products
USDA: Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
St. Louis Fed: Population

50 People You Wish You Knew In Real Life


One word: Hilarious!

Jamie's Septic Service: About Us


I offer the following facts to support my 1 star (out of 5 stars) review of his service.

On June 24, 2010, I paid Jamie to install a new pump and new wiring.

On October 26, 2012, I paid Jamie to pump out my tanks and fix the problem I was having with the wiring he installed in 2010.


Click to enlarge.


Click to enlarge.

The photo shows the "waterproof" box that Jamie originally installed. When he opened it up roughly half a cup of water was found inside. He told me he was not qualified to rewire it. This begs a question. How can one be qualified to wire a box without also being qualified to rewire it?

Did I ask Jamie this question? No. Did I complain? No. I was friendly and very understanding. It had been 2+ years. Water got in. @#$% happens. He called an electrician he works with and told me if that the electrician didn't call me by Monday that I should call him. Once again, no complaints from me. I just wanted the problem fixed.

On October 29, 2012 (Monday), there was still no response from the electrician. I called him directly. No answer. I called Jamie and asked if he'd heard from him. He said that he had and that I should call again. I called and left a message.

On October 30, 2012, the electrician left me a message. I called him back and left another message. Phone tag began, or so I thought.

On November 1, 2012, I called the electrician again. There had been no response. His voice mail inbox was full. I therefore couldn't leave another message. That's never a good sign. I then called Jamie and asked if he could recommend someone else. I was still being very friendly and reasonable. Once again, I just wanted the problem fixed.

On November 2, 2012, there had been no response from either the electrician or Jamie. I called Jamie again and asked him to please return my phone call (which his voice mail claims is done within the hour in most cases). All I wanted was a recommendation of someone else who could fix the problem, or at the very least a reply that said he couldn't offer another recommendation. Keep in mind that I did not have a functional septic tank. I was therefore on borrowed time. Once that third tank fills back up again, it was no more water usage. Period.

On November 8, 2012, a professional electrician came out to fix the wiring problem. My girlfriend found a company that specializes in septic systems and it seemed good to me. I think there's a much better chance that this wiring job will stand the test of time.

It is now November 27, 2012. There's been no further word from Jamie. He ignored my phone calls asking for help. He hung me out to dry just like he hung my waterproof box out to dry. The photos above are exactly how he left my site.

All Jamie would have needed to do was simply call me back and say that he did not know of another electrician to help me. That's it. That was the bare minimum in my opinion. I would not have given him a 5-star review for it of course, but he would have definitely avoided a 1-star review (complete with pictures).

And lastly, I was tempted to give him 2 stars because he did promptly pump out my tanks. Then again...

Jamie's Septic Service: Services Provided

Jamie's Septic Service is a full service company here to cater to your needs. Our services include but are not limited too;

...

Digging out of septic tank manhole covers

Emphasis added.

Jamie told me on the phone that he would really prefer me to dig the holes, even though I said I was sick and taking NyQuil. I didn't complain until now. I simply grabbed a shovel and started digging. It doesn't inspire me to give him a 5-star review though. My needs were not exactly catered to.

I have tried to keep the opinions to a minimum and the facts to a maximum. I documented it as it went along. None of this is from memory. I took notes as it was happening. If Jamie has a problem with what I wrote here, then perhaps he should have stood behind his work.

Click to enlarge.

The record was last set in October of 1978. Unless someone is going to push the record to 1,000 mph soon, I think it is relatively safe to say that we've had an exponential trend failure here.

Water Speed Record


This post inspired by Craig M. Brandenburg's following comment found here.


Check out the following chart in support of the theory. It shows inflation adjusted average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory manufacturing employees (October 2012 dollars).


Click to enlarge.

As seen in the chart, real manufacturing pay peaked in December of 1978. That's within two months of the last water speed record. Go figure.

Click to enlarge.

I'd love to ask a permabull what will be driving personal consumption expenditures exponentially higher from here. This chart would imply that it is important if we expect household net worth to grow.

Inflation? More debt? An ever dwindling supply of Americans not on food stamps?

Seriously, what is it?

This post inspired by Rob Dawg's comment found here.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

...that is the question.

Hey everybody! First off I want to thank you all for your sweet comments and emails about the living room. I'm so happy to have accomplished everything on my list. You'll notice that I didn't say the room is 'finished' as there is always more I want to do, but we won't go there today.

We had a great time with family in Chicago over the Thanksgiving holiday and I also got a chance to visit with some very good friends whom I don't get to see often enough.

Such a good time was had in fact, that it made me think about Christmas cards. Well, the visit and the fact that every other car we passed on Sunday had a christmas tree on the roof.

Last year I didn't send out Christmas/holiday cards (gasp) and I have to tell you, if felt pretty damn good. It was on my list, but I simply just ran out of time. But after the initial guilt wore off, it was rather nice to have one less thing to feel obligated to during this crazy time of year.

Big but though, I LOVE getting Christmas cards. I'm an enigma I know. I love seeing how much everyone's kids have grown (even though I see all of that already thru Facebook) and I'm thrilled to get something in the mail that isn't a bill or a solicitation. And, they are just so damn cute!

Tiny Prints: Chic Colors

Tiny Prints: Gingham Grosgrain

Shutterfly

Shutterfly

Shutterfly

So, what do you think? Are you sending out holiday cards this year? Are they necessary in our social media world where we know all of everyone's everything? Do you have a method or place to get them from that removes the stress? Do I need to save you a seat next to me in 'I didn't send out Christmas cards' hell?