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Summer Short Suit


bittersweet colours, clear clutch, COLORS, DIY, Klear Klutch, Levis, metallics trend, mirrored sunglasses, ripped denim, short suit, Zara, Seth Damm necklace, street style,

bittersweet colours, clear clutch, COLORS, DIY, Klear Klutch, Levis, metallics trend, mirrored sunglasses, ripped denim, short suit, Zara, Seth Damm necklace, street style,
bittersweet colours, clear clutch, COLORS, DIY, Klear Klutch, Levis, metallics trend, mirrored sunglasses, ripped denim, short suit, Zara, Seth Damm necklace, street style,
bittersweet colours, clear clutch, COLORS, DIY, Klear Klutch, Levis, metallics trend, mirrored sunglasses, ripped denim, short suit, Zara, Seth Damm necklace, street style,
bittersweet colours, clear clutch, COLORS, DIY, Klear Klutch, Levis, metallics trend, mirrored sunglasses, ripped denim, short suit, Zara, Seth Damm necklace, street style,
bittersweet colours, clear clutch, COLORS, DIY, Klear Klutch, Levis, metallics trend, mirrored sunglasses, ripped denim, short suit, Zara, Seth Damm necklace, street style,
bittersweet colours, clear clutch, COLORS, DIY, Klear Klutch, Levis, metallics trend, mirrored sunglasses, ripped denim, short suit, Zara, Seth Damm necklace, street style,
bittersweet colours, clear clutch, COLORS, DIY, Klear Klutch, Levis, metallics trend, mirrored sunglasses, ripped denim, short suit, Zara, Seth Damm necklace, street style,
bittersweet colours, clear clutch, COLORS, DIY, Klear Klutch, Levis, metallics trend, mirrored sunglasses, ripped denim, short suit, Zara, Seth Damm necklace, street style,



Here is my yesterday's outfit, another transition look from Summer to early Fall days. Denim shorts,  silk top, eye catching accessories and a blazer( wore it before Here) work perfect in the Summer and can transition into the Fall as well. Simple and versatile: Voila!
Weekend is almost here!!! Have a great one!

P.S. Get 30% off all merchandise on Playwithfala.com with iluvfala promotional code (unlimited use until 8/31/2013) Enjoy!



                                                                       
                                                                        Blazer: Thrift store/ option Here and Here 
                                                                        Top: thanks to Fala by Fala ChienHere 
                                                                        Shorts: Levis( DIY) similar Here and Here 
                                                                        Clutch: thanks to Klear Klutch/ Here 
                                                                        Shoes: Zara/ great option Here and Here 
                                                                        Necklace: Seth Damm thanks to Favery/ Here 
                                                                        Sunglasses: Foster Grant/ similar Here 








my hydrangeas need help

Gardeners, l need your sage advice. I think the soil in my front beds is...unsavory. And I don't know why.

Let's take a walk outside and I'll show you.


I used to have nice healthy plants.  We planted all of this our first spring in the house (7 years ago) and  for a long time they grew like champions. (tear)

We always had a problem with that big bush on the far left - it would start to die, we'd transplant the half dead bush to the backyard and replace it with something new. The new bush would be fine and the half dead bush would perk right up and grow like crazy in the back. Very weird.

Then last summer we had a wicked drought and a crazy number of days of 100+ temps. All my bushes started to look a bit sad and I tried my best to keep them watered and happy but they went down hill fast. By the end of the summer there were firewood.

We dug them up, had a moment of silence to honor their years of service and waited for spring to plant something new.

I planted some lovely hydrangeas and for most of the summer they did pretty well. They didn't flourish as I had hoped but they were happy, alive and blooming. All you can ask for with a first year planting.


Then I came home from vacation to see this. Not good people.

They were starting to look a little funny right before we left but I thought they would hang in there. Our dear house sitter did her best to keep them watered but these suckers look worse than Amanda Bynes.  Look at that poor little thing, you can hardly tell it was even a hydrangea plant at one time.

What's weird is that they still have lots of green leaves on them. It's almost like they were burned or something? I have no idea what has happened to them or what to do. Gardening is not my strong suit and I can ill afford to have this yard looking like poo. Some things are going down at Chez Baumgartner and dead plants are not apart of the plan.

Any ideas? Are they salvageable? Anyone?

Happy Eid!

Happy Eid!

One of the most joyous days in the Islamic calendar, Eid al-Fitr, also known as Eid ul-Fitr or Eid, is a celebration that marks the end of Ramadan (a holy month of fasting observed by Muslims). This year Eid al-Fitr will most likely be observed on Thursday, August 8, 2013 in the United States. It is celebrated on the first day ofShawwal, the 10th month of the Islamic lunar calendar. Traditionally, the observance begins with the sighting of the new moon. While many will wait to see the moon or an announcement from Mecca, the Fiqh Council of North America has determined that Eid al-Fitr 2012 will fall on August 8, 2013, based on astronomical calculations.
According to a hadith attributed to Anas ibn Malik, a companion of the Prophet Muhammad, the two festivals of Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha were instituted by the Prophet after his journey from Mecca to Medinah. 

Sanjay Gupta had previously helped to "mislead" the American public about the effects of the drug.

Sanjay Gupta had previously helped to "mislead" the American public about the effects of the drug.
I mistakenly believed the Drug Enforcement Agency listed marijuana as a schedule 1 substance because of sound scientific proof. Surely, they must have quality reasoning as to why marijuana is in the category of the most dangerous drugs that have "no accepted medicinal use and a high potential for abuse."
They didn't have the science to support that claim, and I now know that when it comes to marijuana neither of those things are true. It doesn't have a high potential for abuse, and there are very legitimate medical applications. In fact, sometimes marijuana is the only thing that works.


31-year-old Miami Man Fatally Shoots Wife In Kitchen, Then Posted Photo And Confession On FB

Derek Medina and Jennifer Alfonso

Photos: Facebook

Miami man kills wife claiming repeated abuse by her and posted confession, including a photo of murdered wife on Facebook.

By H. Nelson Goodson
August 9, 2013

Miami, Florida - On Thursday, WUSA 9 dot com reported that Derek Medina, 31, turned himself to police after fatally shooting his wife, Jennifer Alfonso, 26, and then posting a confession, including a photo of her body on Facebook (FB). The FB page was removed about five hours after the murder.
Medina claimed that Alfonso had repeatedly abused him and got tired of it and just shot her. 
Medina posted around noon on Thursday, "I'm going to prison or death sentence for killing my wife. Love you guys miss you guys take care, Facebook people, you will see me on the news...My wife was punching me and I am not going to stand anymore with the abuse so I did what I did I hope u understand me."
On Alfonso's dead body photo, Medina added, "RIP, Jennifer Alfonso." When police investigated Medina's claim that he killed his wife, police found her body in the kitchen floor at their townhouse located at 5555 SW 67 Avenue in South Miami.
Medina after the homicide had gone to his father's home and told him that Alfonso had argued with him and began to repeatedly hit him. She then pulled a knife on him and he fatally shot her. The father took Medina to a police station where he turned himself in. His father told police that Medina had previously married Alfonso and had an abusive relationship, which ended in a divorced, but last year they got married again.
Medina married Alfonso in 2012 and his FB profile indicated he was a small time actor who landed an extra role with Burn Notice in 2009. His 10-year-old daughter from a previous marriage was at home when police arrived, but she was reported unharmed.
Medina is facing first-degree murder, according to police.

Long-Term Real GDP Growth Prediction

If GDP continues to fall relative to disposable personal income like it has since we fell off the gold standard...


Click to enlarge.

And if real disposable personal income growth continues to fall long-term...


Click to enlarge.

Then here is my long-term real GDP growth prediction in one word or less.

Down.

If "ifs" and "buts" were candy and nuts then we'd all have a Merry Christmas. Oh, man. I just had to bring up Christmas. I hope we're not all hanging our hopes on that one again. About the only long-term trend I can see with Christmas is that the retailers keep moving the starting date forward to capture those precious shopping dollars before the competition does, lol. Sigh.

February 2, 2011
More Dangerous Advice from Jeremy Siegel

These healthy rates were not a surprise, since economic theory predicted that real yields should approximate real gross domestic product growth, which averaged between 3 per cent and 4 per cent at that time. - Jeremy Siegel

And yet, the Wharton School wizard believes/believed that "risks abound with inflation-linked bonds". In all fairness, I wouldn't touch his precious "Stocks for the Long Run" with a 10' pole either I suppose, especially that 4th edition released on November 27, 2007 (just 4 days before the Great Recession officially began).

According to Pablo Galarza of Money, "His 1994 book Stocks for the Long Run sealed the conventional wisdom that most of us should be in the stock market."

Siegel argues that stocks have returned an average of 6.5 percent to 7 percent per year after inflation over the last 200 years. He expects returns to be somewhat lower in the next couple of decades.

Here's a little known conventional wisdom fact. We didn't even know what aluminum investing was all about 200 years ago. Why? Aluminum wasn't even discovered until 1825! I would have tweeted it at the time, but my Internet connection was down. Speaking of aluminum, Goldman Sachs apparently opted to disregard the professor's advice and "invest" in the the wondrous element that is used to manufacture empty soda cans. Talk about silly. Why the empty cans? Why not the heavily marked up precious fluids within? And here's an even more interesting conventional wisdom fact. I just browsed data going back to the 7th century. Turns out the U.S. Government has only bailed out General Motors in the last 200 years. There are no indications of previous bailouts as far as I can tell. It's truly baffling. You'd think that if the good professor can use 200 year old data to predict the future then surely I could use today's data to predict the past. Where were the @#$%ing bailouts? It makes no sense! Horses? Horses you say? People drove them back then? That's cool. What kind of mileage did they get? How much did General Motors sell them for? Why is this data so hard to get!

Unlike the wizards and their dreams of frolicking unicorns safely tucked away within enchanted forests, I continue to believe that we'll have ZIRP well past 2014. It's just a hunch. Don't hold me to it!

But hey, it's all biscuits and gravy for now, at least until the next downturn anyway. Have no fear. I'll just be in a figurative bunker awaiting the next rubicon event. Would you believe that it has been almost two years since the last one? I know! Where does the time go. As seen in the data within the link, it's hardly unprecedented though.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: GDP / DPI
St. Louis Fed: Real Disposable Personal Income Growth

Global Warming Makes People Mean! ... J. D. Longstreet

Global Warming Makes People Mean!   ...   J. D. Longstreet
Global Warming Makes People Mean!
Preparing for Obama's Carbon Tax
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet

****************
"Shifts in climate are strongly linked to increases in violence around the world, a study suggests.
US scientists found that even small changes in temperature or rainfall correlated with a rise in assaults, rapes and murders, as well as group conflicts and war.

The team says with the current projected levels of climate change, the world is likely to become a more violent place."
  SOURCE:  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23538771

So NOW we KNOW!  Hot dang! 

Yep!  According to scientists there IS a link between higher temperatures and an increase in crime GLOBALLY.  Who'd a thunk it?

The Greenies are scraping the bottom of the barrel seeking a way, any way, they can to save face and keep that gov'mint money rolling in.

Before we go any further, we need to understand that if this "theory" were true then crime rates the world over ought to be dropping since there has been no warming of temperatures on earth since the late 1990's.  

"The scientists say that with the current projected levels of climate change the world is likely to become a more violent place.

They estimate that a 2C (3.6F) rise in global temperature could see personal crimes increase by about 15%, and group conflicts rise by more than 50% in some regions." 
SOURCE:  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23538771

Look.  Even the Greenies will admit there hasn't been any rise in global temperatures in at least, well,  seventeen years.  

You might be interested to know that violent crime -- right here in the good ole US of A -- has been dropping for at least a couple of decades now.   Somehow, that doesn't seem to add a whole lot of credence to the "global warming - high crime" theory, now does it?

The article that aroused all of us "deniers" was published online recently by the journal Science.  In the article they thoughtfully provide a formula I call the "Hot/Hit" formula:

"The team of economists even came up with a formula that predicts how much the risk of different types of violence should increase with extreme weather. In war-torn parts of equatorial Africa, it says, every added degree Fahrenheit or so increases the chance of conflict between groups— rebellion, war, civil unrest — by 11 percent to 14 percent.

For the United States, the formula says that for every increase of 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit, the likelihood of violent crime goes up 2 percent to 4 percent."
  SOURCE:  http://sweetness-light.com/archive/tempers-crime-war-blamed-on-global-warming#.Uf0QHqwpiRQ

(If you are familiar with the LMAO abbreviation used often in text messaging then you will understand what I am doing as I write this!)

If this report seems sort of familiar, well, back in 2008 a similar report was made by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute which said climate change could lead to an increase in crime. The report's author, Anthony Bergin, deputy director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, predicted global warming would lead to an increase in violent crime and so called 'climate crime'.  Mr. Bergin is quoted as saying:  "I think as water becomes like liquid gold we're more likely to see examples of individuals stealing water or siphoning from river systems."   SOURCEhttp://www.abc.net.au/news/2008-10-23/global-warming-will-increase-climate-crime-risk/551654

I'll leave it up to you, the reader, to place whatever stock in the report you might think it warrants.  As for me, if I had a hard copy of the report it would go in the "round file."

I think it is just another case of the greenies dragging out the doomsday drum again. 

Look.  The Global Warming/Climate Change movement has been totally discredited -- and yet -- the political left has so much invested in it that they cannot allow it to fold up and disappear.  Besides, Obama has yet to get his carbon tax introduced and passed through the Congress.  So, global warming/climate change "awareness" MUST be kept at a high level until that damnable tax is levied on the American citizenry. 

The whole accursed carbon trading, carbon taxing, scheme is a Marxist/Communist plot ... period!  It promotes "redistribution of the wealth." 

On the website of the World Bank is posted a document that spells it out.  The document is titled:  “Inclusive Green Growth: The Pathway to Sustainable Development.”
In the article it is stated:  "... some observers, mostly in high-income countries, have argued against the need for more growth, suggesting that what is needed instead is a redistribution of wealth.” (Emphasis by underlining is mine.)  Source:   http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2013/03/21/here-comes-team-obama-carbon-tax/#ixzz2avBytHF3

The report in the article goes on to outline how a carbon tax could be used to drive a massive redistributive scheme such as the one Senators Henry Waxman and Barbara Boxer, both democrats from California, are advocating to the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee.

We all should be aware that plans to pursue a national carbon tax for America are very much alive and well in the US Congress and are quietly, but steadily, making progress.

Not to worry.  The President has made it clear that should his efforts to obtain a carbon tax in the Congress fail, he is more than prepared to get it done by an Executive Order.

For more on this we recommend you read:  "Here comes Team Obama's carbon tax" written by Phil Kerpen.  You'll find it at:  http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2013/03/21/here-comes-team-obama-carbon-tax/

Consider this:  "If the administration has its way, the legacy of ObamaAir could well be massive blackouts and soaring electricity bills for millions of people."  Source:  http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2013/06/20/white-house-preps-carbon-tax-lets-call-it-obamaair/

So.  All the talk about higher global temps causing higher global meanness and soaring crime rates is nothing more than propaganda to prepare you to accept another tax from hell.

© J. D. Longstreet

Pop Quiz: Bill Ackman vs. Eddie Lampert

Which whiz kid reigns supreme?


Click to enlarge.

Trick question! Too close to call!

August 8, 2013
‘Just a couple of quarters’ left for JCP?

Asked who might be able to turnaround the company's fortunes, Dunn said it was difficult to say.

I have a particular person in mind. Unfortunately, he was apparently crucified during the 1st century AD.

August 8, 2013
Tears for Sears

The store’s demise was an isolated closure and not part of any new announcement of shutdowns by the struggling retailer. In 2012, Sears Holding announced closure of up to 120 of its Sears stores across the country, but skipped over the East Wenatchee outlet to shutter larger stores in Walla Walla and Lacey as part of efforts to reduce expenses and move forward with a new business model.

The new business model apparently involves stealth closures. That's bound to work at least as well as putting a lid on same-store sales data.

Source Data:
Yahoo Finance: Historical SHLD Prices
Yahoo Finance: Historical JCP Prices

Real Disposable Personal Income per Capita


Click to enlarge.

Fail.


Click to enlarge.

Optimism may not be warranted at this time.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Real Disposable Personal Income per Capita

Decal Permits To Hunt Illegal Immigrants In U.S.A. Sold At Local Germantown Mobil Station

Photo: Courtesy of Sachin Chheda

Steven Krieser

Steven Krieser, the assistant deputy Secretary of the Department of Transportation fired by Governor Walker over Facebook comment comparing illegals to Satan.

By H. Nelson Goodson
August 8, 2013

Germantown, WI - On Thursday, Hispanic News Network U.S.A. (HNNUSA) contacted the Mobil Gas Station in Germantown, which is allegedly selling decal permits to hunt illegal immigrants in the U.S.A. A Mobil gas station employee who wouldn't identify himself would not confirm, if the decal was still being sold or taken off the shelves. The owner could not be reached for comment. The Mobil station is located at N96 W17500, County Line Road in Germantown. 
The decal is a novelty, but tasteless and feeds into racial hate, profiling and suggests that illegals can be hunted (killed) in the country. Someone with a lack of commonsense could actually believe it's legal to hunt illegals (undocumented immigrants).
The decal image was first posted in State Representative Gordon Hintz (D-Oshkosh) Facebook account and then it was linked to State Representative Joshua Zepnick's (D-Milwaukee) Facebook account. Sahchin Chheda, the Chair of the Democratic Party of Milwaukee County shared the hunting permit photo with HNNUSA. Chedda wrote, the photo was "taken from State Rep. Gordon Hintz' page. State Rep. Josh Zepnick has been very outspoken in raising awareness and calling for action to get people to stop selling these."
Zepnick on Thursday in his FB page wrote, "please check out the awful if not illegal selling of stickers, at a Germantown gas station, encouraging basically the hunting and "bagging" of "illegal immigrants"....another byproduct of the lousy Republican Party's arrogant, narrow minded, selfish push of being "patriotic" and an American...absolutely unacceptable/wonder if we can yank this station's license for endangering the public???!"
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (JS) writer Daniel Bice reported on Thursday that, a heated discussion caused by Hintz's posting the decal on his FB brought a response by Steven Krieser, the assistant deputy Secretary of the Department of Transportation. Krieser a Republican, who earned more than $96K a year. Krieser compared  illegals to Satan. The JS reported that Krieser wrote that a "stream of wretched criminals" is crossing the border without obstruction. These individuals, he said, "completely ruined" entire states and industries, breeding "the animus that many American citizens feel toward them."
Krieser's posting on FB cost him his job, he got fired by Governor Scott Walker (R) for his inappropriate comment. The JS also reported a statement from Walker's spokesperson, that "These comments are repugnant, completely unacceptable, and have no place in Governor Walker's administration," said Tom Evenson, spokesman for Walker. "Governor Walker condemns his views, and they do not represent the governor or his administration in any way."
Krieser since getting fired by Walker has apologized for his comments in FB and regrets doing so. He has removed his comments.
Apparently, the Mobil gas station in Germantown sold the last decal to a JS reporter for $6.00, Bice confirmed.
In May 2011, The same hunting stickers were sold at a Citgo Auto-Truck Stop Plaza in Sturtevent on Hwy 20 and I-94 for $4 to $5.00 a piece. To some the stickers are a form of speech, novelty, comical and to others it promotes hate and violence towards immigrants.
After a local immigrant rights group, Voces de la Frontera (VDLF) threatened to hold a protest at the business, the Citgo Truck Stop Plaza owner pulled the decals. Instead the owner was recognized by VDLF for being a good business owner for removing the decals.
The "Illegal Immigrant Hunting Permit" decals are distributed by Central States Novelty, LLC.

Stock Market Analysis - The Bearish Case

As seen in the following charts, it would seem that I can predict the inflation adjusted S&P 500 index reasonably accurately if you tell me current nonfarm payrolls, weekly initial claims, and real disposable personal income. Yep, that's it. You don't even have to mention treasury yields. If you are curious, my model is fully described within the charts below. Enjoy!


Click to enlarge.

Well, would you look at that. Let's make a scatter chart.


Click to enlarge.

How's that for exciting? I'd say it is far better to invest near the lower left corner than the upper right corner, but perhaps that's just me. As seen in the chart, we're very close to where we were at the height of the stock market bubble (July 2007) just before the Great Recession. That's very exciting, but only in a gallows humor sort of way perhaps.

As if that chart isn't bad enough, I'm not done yet. There are three things that make up my model. Let's look at each one individually to see how we're doing. We'll do nonfarm payrolls first. I haven't updated the chart lately, but I'm sure it is close enough to get the idea.

April 6, 2013
40.9 Million Missing Jobs (Musical Tribute)


Click to enlarge.

Ouch. That trend failed in an epic way and there's just no getting back to it. It's not even remotely possible. Sorry. My model suggests that the lack of historic nonfarm payroll growth going forward will put a serious damper on long-term stock market performance going forward. Big shocker.

Let's look at the inverse of initial claims. That's part of my formula too. The more initial claims go down, the higher the stock market will go. Everyone knows it. This is hardly rocket science.


Click to enlarge.

Ouch. I can't speak for you, but that most certainly does not inspire confidence in me. We're near the very top of a declining trend channel. I'd even go so far as to call it cyclical growth within a secular bear market. I'd definitely err on the side of caution here.

Let's look at real disposable personal income, or more importantly its growth. That's the last piece of the puzzle. It is seemingly our only hope at this point, at least over the long-term. Since it is a noisy series and all we really care about is the long-term, let's look at the semiannual data (averaged) to smooth it out.


Click to enlarge.

Ouch. Now that's just painful. Guess what? Although I locked in long-term rates on TIPS and I-Bonds whenever I could, ZIRP is not actually enhancing my real disposable personal income. Further, if it isn't enhancing my income then think what it is doing to those who did not lock in rates (as they were repeatedly told not to do!). Once again, big shocker.

So let's summarize. My model says that the stock market should be high. The components of my model are mostly aligned in what looks to be a brand new era of prosperity. Unfortunately, my model also says that these components are only temporarily aligned more than likely. It's just an illusion of prosperity.

Welcome to my permabear world. The stock market may go higher from here, but I have absolutely no desire to put my nest egg anywhere near it. None. Nada. ZIRP.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims Inverse
St. Louis Fed: Real Disposable Personal Income Growth

10-Year Treasury Yield Inverse

I was told on Bloomberg today that rising yields are obvious. It was just said as a matter of fact. That reminded me of a quote.

Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected. - George Soros

The following chart shows the inverse of the 10-year treasury yield. For example, a 5% yield would be a 20 on the chart (1 / 0.05 = 20).


Click to enlarge.

The downward trend in treasury yields has been predicted to fail for many years. As seen in the chart, the only thing that's truly failed so far is its exact opposite (its inverse) though. Further, when most trends fail they tend to fail in the opposite direction as the original trend. That was not the case here. For example, did the long-term upward exponential trend in job creation fail to the upside? I think not.

We're now simply back in the long-term channel. It's hard to read much into that. I wouldn't be willing to use the word "obvious" until we pass through 30 to the downside on this chart (and stay there for a full semi-annual period). Then we'll talk about the trend in falling yields being over. Until that point, I just don't see the "obviousness" of it that many seem to see.

1 / 30 = 3.33%

Now that's a target yield worthy of consideration. Based on the stock market's strength recently, I'm kind of surprised we aren't even closer to it than we are. On a relative basis (considering the long-term trend in the chart above), yields were very high heading into the last recession. Perhaps we're just not there yet, or perhaps many investors like myself are starting to really believe in the death of real yields story. You know, burn me once (dotcom bubble) shame on you. Burn me twice (housing bubble), shame on me. The saying just sort of stops there though. For what it is worth, I personally don't want to risk what happens after the third burning, lol. Sigh.

So why am I charting the inverse here? I have a fairly good reason actually.

I think many are failing to realize that the difference between a 0.2% yield and a 0.1% yield can be the same as the difference between a 20% yield and a 10% yield, especially in regards to an over-leveraged society.

Here's an example.

If I borrow $10,000 @ 10%, then I have to make $1,000 annual interest payments.
If I borrow half as much @ 20%, then I still have to make $1,000 annual interest payments.

If I borrow $1,000,000 @ 0.1%, then I have to make $1,000 annual interest payments.
If I borrow half as much @ 0.2%, then I still have to make $1,000 annual interest payments.

When seen in this context, the difference between 1% interest rates and 0% interest rates is infinite (0.01 / 0.00 = infinity), which is clearly not at all the trivial amount most would suggest. We could therefore continue to approach 0% without ever really reaching it.

Put another way, 0% is like a singularity. We may have already entered its event horizon. At 0%, the forces of leverage can become infinite. Just as in Japan, there may be no easy exit from such ultimate goal madness.

NASA: Event Horizon and Time

If you (in a space ship, for example) were to approach the event horizon and cross it, to a person watching you from a great distance it would look like you moved slower and slower as you got closer and closer to the horizon. To them it would look like you never quite reached the horizon. But this is an illusion caused by the fact that the light you emit from your space ship is taking longer and longer to reach the outside observer. This is due to the black hole's immense gravity. From your own point of view, you reach the horizon and cross it, with nothing special happening at the boundary. But of course, the gravitational forces of the black hole will crush you do death sooner or later!

Isn't that exactly what people have been saying about Japan since their housing bubble popped in the early 1990s? They've certainly been moving slower and slower to outside observers. Like most, I would also argue that their debt may crush them at some point. I'm only questioning the timing of when it may happen to us. If Japan is any indicator, sooner or later could be a very, very long time.

And now for the moral of the story.

In any event horizon, there's always a bull market in black holes. If indeed we've got another one, then try not to get sucked in like the Japanese did (Nikkei 225 Index Adjusted for Japanese CPI)! There are worse things in life than being slowly crushed to death by supposedly rising treasury yields, especially if held to maturity.

This is not investment advice. As usual, just opinions.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
U.S. Treasury: Daily Yield Curve

Togo's Ivory Smuggling Trade Boss N'bouke Arrested

Emile Edouwodzi N'bouke

N'bouke allegedly helped smuggle tons of ivory out of Togo.

By H. Nelson Goodson
August 8, 2013

Lome, Togo - On Tuesday, Emile Edouwodzi N'bouke, 58, aka, "The Boss" of the illegal ivory trade in Africa was arrested in Lome by the Togo Anti-trafficking police, according to BBC. N'bouke is considered the kingpin of the ivory smuggling trade in Togo, according to Col Yao Kondi, the head of the Anti-trafficking Squad. The Togo's Environment Minister Dede Ahoefa Ekoune confirmed N'bouke's arrest and says, the government is taking the illegal ivory smuggling trade seriously. N'bouke has been connected to the slaughter of more than 10,000 elephants, since 1970 through his illegal trade, according to Ekoune.
N'bouke was part of an investigative program aired on Wednesday by ABC News Nightline titled "White Gold in the Black Market." N'bouke owns a shop that had at least 500 pounds of ivory from 30 elephants for sale. He told undercover investigators that he got it legally before 2008 and that he could smuggle ivory to China and other parts of Asia without being detected by customs.
One of the investigators included Ofir Drori, a self-made wildlife crime fighter and founder of an organization called the Last Great Ape, which is attributed of providing undercover video and surveillance of illegal trafficking of ivory, birds, apes and large cats that led to 900 arrests. Drori says, N'bouke's arrest was the first of its kind in the West African country. He began investigating N'bouke in late 2012.
N'bouke had been hiding after he was alerted by corrupt officials from the Ministry of Environment that he was going to be busted. It took some time, but the anti-trafficking police discovered five elephant ivory tusks in N'bouke's shop. N'bouke has denied the charges, but says that he only deals with legal ivory and bones that are carve into items to sell.
In 2008, the ivory trade was outlawed in Togo and today about 60 elephants remain alive in a protected national park refuge in the country. Suspects caught trafficking ivory can face between 10 months to three years in prison. 
Drori has been fighting corrupted officials, police and military that look the other way while the illegal ivory smuggling trade flourish in the area.
Togo officials say, that the ivory is smuggled into Togo from the West African sub-region, including Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Ghana and the Ivory Coast, according to BBC.
The going rate per pound of ivory in the black market is $1,300, but a large carved piece can cost between $13,000 to $30,000 or more.
In July, Hong Kong customs officials seized $2.2 million (2 tons of ivory tusks) hidden in a cargo from Togo. Another shipment of illegal trafficking netted $12 million of ivory (6 tons of tusks from more than 700 elephants) hidden in a container of mahogany wood that was found by Malaysian customs. The ivory shipment was headed to China.
Nightline in its undercover investigative report also showed a poacher that claimed he killed his 500th elephant. The elephant suffered for hours before it died because the poacher didn't have enough bullets to spare, according to Nightline.

The Never Ending War ... J. D. Longstreet

The Never Ending War   ...   J. D. Longstreet
The Never Ending War
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet

******************

I used to feel comfortable saying that Democrats did not understand military power, or the application of military power. Now, as Republicans are showing the same weakness, I am no longer comfortable with that adage.

The baby boomer Republicans have joined the ranks of the crowd, that thinks nothing is worth fighting for. Never mind that some poor dog face soldier gave his life so the entire baby boomer generation could live, and prosper, in freedom. Talk about ingratitude!

We, as a nation, are going to have to do something. Americans no longer have the stomach for a fight. I mean a REAL FIGHT! Trying to fight a "politically correct war", "winning the hearts and minds of the enemy," and having a large portion of our troops assigned to "Nation Building" is NOT WORKING and it is getting our combat forces chewed up, resulting in the needless deaths of our servicemen and servicewomen.

The micro-managing of our war(s), by our politicians, is dragging out every conflict for years when they could have been finished -- decisively in our favor -- in months or even weeks.  American lives are being lost just to make a political point.

Add to the above this: maintaining a standing military force at a level about half (or even a third) the size it ought to be (for its mission) is grinding up our soldiers, sailors, Airmen and Marines in tour, after tour, after tour, in combat zones and producing mentally exhausted automatons in the ranks and mentally damaged civilians when the finally DO finish their enlistment and get to go home. 

Now add the social experiments the federal government is running on our captive service men and women such as homosexuals allowed to serve, and placing women an combat roles, and the stress level adjusts exponentially upward.  

We are in great danger of having the quality of our war fighting people degraded.  Thomas Sowell once said:  "If the battle for civilization comes down to the wimps versus the barbarians, the barbarians are going to win."

At the same, time the US is cutting the size of its military, across the board, which will bring much more stress on the troops.  At some point our military will have more on its plate than it can realistically handle and it will crumble under the weight. 

Not to worry. China and Russia are standing in the wings ready to take over from the US as policeman of the world.  Scary enough for you?  

Now for a little history:  When FDR decided the time was right to invade Europe and conquer the Nazis, the Supreme Allied Commander, General Dwight D. Eisenhower was given the job. The President relied upon Eisenhower to get the job done.  It was a clear case of allowing the military to do its job.  We all know how that turned out.

Even though we won WWII decisively, we STILL, to this day, have US troops in Germany. We fought to a tie in Korea, and we have thousands of troops in South Korea today, as well.  We lost in Vietnam.   Both those war efforts, Korea and Vietnam, were micro-managed by Washington at the cost of thousands of US lives, and… over half a century later…. we are STILL in Korea -- and -- we lost the war in Vietnam to an inferior opponent!  Clearly, our national leaders have learned nothing from their predecessor’s mistakes… or… from history.
 

There is something else that is abundantly clear. The philosophy of “Winning the Hearts and Minds” of the enemy is so much wimpy bunk!   Defeat them first, defeat them decisively, then make-upIF we really want to.

Today, in he Middle East, we are setting the stage for a regional war.  We have NOT decisively defeated our enemy there and there is a better than even chance that Iran will soon attempt to assert its hegemony over the entire region.  Once Iran acquires the nuclear bomb it will have the means to back up its breast beating and boasting.  It Will BE number one, at least within the Arab/Persian community in the Middle East and North Africa.

Soon our forces will be withdrawn from Afghanistan leaving it for the Taliban to "re-seize" and then visit their revenge upon the current leaders of that hapless country and anyone else who has the temerity to even look askance at them.

The US has what has been called (charitably) a "Reluctant Warrior" as President in Obama.  It is clear that he doesn't want to fight ... period.  It has also become clear that he is trying desperately to cloak any US operations in Syria in dark secrecy to preserve "plausible deniability." 

Unfortunately for the President, deniability is not plausible anymore and hasn't been, since, well -- before the Benghazi Betrayal!  Some of us told you then that the US was running guns to the Syrian rebels from Libya through Turkey to the rebels -- all handled by the CIA with the US Ambassador likely read-in to the operation.

Obama's efforts throughout the Middle East have been successfully countered by the Muslim countries and Muslim organizations and now -- Obama wants out.

Closing nearly two dozen embassies throughout the Middle East on the strength of some ethereal threat not only makes the US look wimpish, it also enhances the terrorist's claim that they are driving the US out of the Middle East.

Look.  It's no secret that, save for Israel, America would be glad to shake the dust of the Middle East off our feet and leave them to kill each other off.  Trouble is, their kind of hatred cannot be contained.  It cannot be placated nor passified. It must be met with force -- and obliterated. 

Chances are very high that sometime soon we will be at war, on some level, with Iran. Wishing the coming conflict with Iran away will not work.  The planet cannot allow Iran to gain nuclear weapons.

There are, currently, only two countries capable of taking on Iran:  the US and Israel. 

There is no way the US is going to be allowed a clean break from the Middle East. 
It is interesting to note, I think, that many theologians believe that all human life had its common beginning in the Middle East around the Tigress and Euphrates Rivers in current day Iraq.  Could it be that all human life will have its common end there, as well.   If so, then man will have come full circle on this planet.

The unending war WILL end -- but it will conclude on the last day of the End of Days.  

Look.  America's days as a warrior nation are ended.  It pains me to say this BUT -- Americans no longer take pride in their soldiers as a result of the social experiments the political left has forced upon our military.  Without the support of the American public the US military is in serious danger of losing its connection to the heart and soul of America and will likely become little more than a collection of mercenaries fighting -- not for flag and country -- but for the paycheck each month. 

Once our national economy begins to pick up, for real, we will see enlistment in the military begin dropping. Christians, especially evangelical Christians, are going to have to decide between serving their God or serving the US military.  There can be no question as to their decision NOT to serve in the military.  Many Christians already serving will not be re-enlisting when their current hitch is completed.

The plain truth is this:  More damage has been done to the US military in the past two decades by its own leadership, both military and civilian, than the damage done by all America's enemies combined.

In the meantime, the never ending war continues apace as a leaderless America blunders from one crisis to another, from one battlefield to another with victory always elusive, maddeningly close but just out of reach.

As the Hunkpapa Lakota Sioux Chief, Sitting Bull, watched his people and his nation crumble and fall to the white man he is quoted as wondering aloud:  "When I was a boy, the Sioux owned the world. The sun rose and set on their land; they sent ten thousand men to battle. Where are the warriors today? Who slew them? Where are our lands? Who owns them?

Apparently the old expression: "Everything that (What) goes around, comes around" has credibility, because in recent years I have found myself asking some of the same questions the old Sioux tribal chief,  asked himself.  Unfortunately, while the answers may be different, the end result appears to be the same. Apparently the laws governing the rise and fall of nations apply to both great and small nations.  The Fates, it would seem, don't really care who you are -- the Sioux or the Americans. 

© J. D. Longstreet

The 1980s and 1990s Are Over


Click to enlarge.

Welcome to the era of the new normal.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

At a Loss for Words...

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny


Planning on a lot of popcorn from now until 2016.



Oy Vey!!!

Article at HuffPo

Via: Memeorandum

Flower - Power

3.1 Phillip Lim, bittersweet colours, burgundy color, COLORS, floral prints, Floral trend, harlyn, miu miu, Parka Jacket, street style, Summer 2013, Summer to Fall transition,

3.1 Phillip Lim, bittersweet colours, burgundy color, COLORS, floral prints, Floral trend, harlyn, miu miu, Parka Jacket, street style, Summer 2013, Summer to Fall transition,
3.1 Phillip Lim, bittersweet colours, burgundy color, COLORS, floral prints, Floral trend, harlyn, miu miu, Parka Jacket, street style, Summer 2013, Summer to Fall transition,
3.1 Phillip Lim, bittersweet colours, burgundy color, COLORS, floral prints, Floral trend, harlyn, miu miu, Parka Jacket, street style, Summer 2013, Summer to Fall transition,
3.1 Phillip Lim, bittersweet colours, burgundy color, COLORS, floral prints, Floral trend, harlyn, miu miu, Parka Jacket, street style, Summer 2013, Summer to Fall transition,
3.1 Phillip Lim, bittersweet colours, burgundy color, COLORS, floral prints, Floral trend, harlyn, miu miu, Parka Jacket, street style, Summer 2013, Summer to Fall transition,
3.1 Phillip Lim, bittersweet colours, burgundy color, COLORS, floral prints, Floral trend, harlyn, miu miu, Parka Jacket, street style, Summer 2013, Summer to Fall transition,
3.1 Phillip Lim, bittersweet colours, burgundy color, COLORS, floral prints, Floral trend, harlyn, miu miu, Parka Jacket, street style, Summer 2013, Summer to Fall transition,



An autumnal vibe can be felt in this outfit today, maybe because this rich palette colors of the dress or maybe just because I secretly want a little change and Fall is what comes to my mind as a next natural change. Have a great day everyone!



                                                                        Dress: Harlyn/ I also love this one Here
                                                                        Shoes: Miu Miu/ option Here and Here 
                                                                        Parka Jacket: Green Envelope/ similar Here,  Here and Here 
                                                                        Necklace: Flea Market find/ option Here and Here 
                                                                        Clutch: 3.1 Phillip Lim/ Here
                                                                        Sunglasses: Ray Ban/ Here




refinishing the bench

When will I learn?! That's rhetorical by the way, as I think I am beyond help.

Ever since I wrote about the glory that is unpainted wood furniture (here), I've had a hankering to add some, somewhere. And since I've got extra furniture three rows deep in the basement, I figured buying something wasn't the way to go.


Luckily I've been eyeing my church pew. I've been thinking of changing the red for some time, as I talked about here, so why not go with the color it was originally meant to be anyway.

In theory anyway.

Quick history on the pew, it came from the small country chapel that my great-great-grandfather founded long long ago. My mom acquired it back in the early 80's when they renovated the chapel and at that time it was painted brown. Why in the world would someone paint wood furniture brown? That's exactly what I was thinking too! Anyway, she promptly painted it red and it has been that way ever since. The point being no one that I know knew what type of wood this was or how it would look.

I love to solve a good mystery so I tested a little spot with my Citristrip just to see what I was getting into. If it looked bad I could paint that spot again or worse yet just put a pillow over it.


What a tease. It was worse than Ryan Seacrest before a commercial break. It was all, oh, I'm bubbling right away, I'll come up with no problem. And the first layer did.

That's right, I said first layer. But it was the layer, upon layer, upon layer of brown...paint/natural stain/mystery McGuyver substance that wouldn't. go. away.

I don't really have any pictures of this phase as its hard to take a picture while banging you head but basically each day started with 'I'm sure this will be the last layer of brown goop, I can do this' and ended with 'Who in lucifer's reach made this #%$^!!!'.

This went on for a week.

It was the worst as it looked as if there wasn't any paint there but when I scraped off the Cirtristrip there was more and more dark brown goo. I never did find out what it was but I got as much off as I could.


I used my last bit of energy to sand and then I stopped. The bench and I needed some time apart.

Have you ever underestimated a DIY project? Have you wanted to beat a piece of furniture? Do you have any idea what that brown goop could have been?

Come back next week when we see how the old girl looks now.

Dr. Broderick Arrested At Italy Museum After Breaking Off 600-year-old Statue's Finger

Patrick B. Broderick, M.D.

Florence police took Dr. Broderick into custody after breaking pinky finger from statue.

By H. Nelson Goodson
August 7, 2013

Florence, Italy - Police in Florence identified Patrick B. Broderick, M.D., 55, of New Fairfield, Connecticut as the suspect who broke a pinky finger off the 600-year-old statue of the Virgin by Florantine sculptor Giovanni d'Ambargio inside the Museo deil'Opera del Duomo. Police say, a guard saw Broderick getting to close to the statue and tried to stop him, but Broderick had already broken off the pinky finger off the statue before the guard could get to him.
Broderick was detained for questioning and then released. He could face a fine and the cost of fixing the statue. The museum has not filed any charges yet. Dr. Broderick was visiting the museum with his wife and two adult children. He is expected back in the U.S. by Monday.
Tourists are warned not to touch the statues at the museum, but Broderick failed to keep his distance because he was trying to measure the statue's hand with his own, according to police. Broderick an emergency surgeon at Danbury Hospital did apologized, but it might become an expensive moment for him, if the museum bills him for the damage done to the statue.
The pinky that Broderick broke had been a replacement for the missing marble pinky finger, according to the museum director Timothy Vernon.

China's "Growth" Story in One Chart


Click to enlarge.

See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Jennifer Lopez Reached 25M Likes In Facebook Account

August 7, 2013

Miami, FL (HNNUSA) - On late Tuesday, singer and movie star, Jennifer Lopez posted a photo in her Facebook (FB) account with a sign thanking all her FB followers for reaching 25 million likes. 

Real Dividends per Capita


Click to enlarge.

The tree that stands above the others gets blown down - Chinese proverb

Okay, yes. Technically speaking, the tree was blown down in 2009. It's not going to happen again though. This new tree has a concrete base reinforced with rebar!

Root system? This new tree don't need no stinkin' root system. It's growing to the sky without one!

Wiktionary: no tree grows to the sky

There are limits on growth. Growth does not continue indefinitely, eventually it will halt or collapse.

Oh, please. Infinite ZIRP fertilizer equals infinite growth! Everybody knows it, except for those clueless Japanese.


Click to enlarge.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
St. Louis Fed: Interest Rates, Discount Rate for Japan

Prosperity Euphoric Reflux Disease

Prosperity Euphoric Reflux Disease
GERD -> BURP

PERD -> ZIRP

Got antacids? ;)

Driver Side-wiped Milwaukee Police Squad While Parked On S. Layton Blvd.

Photos: HNG/HNNUSA

A driver was pulled over after he hit a police squad while parked on S. Layton Blvd.

By H. Nelson Goodson
August 6, 2013

Milwaukee, WI - On Tuesday, a Milwaukee Police squad was hit (side-wiped) by a gray vehicle on its left driver's side while an officer was seating inside. An unidentified driver going northbound around 5:00 p.m. on S. Layton Blvd. at the 900 block hit the squad on the side causing door and rear view side door mirror damage on the squad driver's side. 
The male driver was immediately pulled over at the Walgreen's parking lot. A child accompanied the driver.
A woman in the area said, the police squad was parked in front of 940 S. Layton Blvd. facing North when the driver drove by to close and side-wiped the squad. The driver stopped after the incident.
Police would not give any additional details, other that the male driver was detained for questioning and pending an investigation.

An Up and Coming Progressive Site...

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny


Today's blog entry is a very special entry. It is special in that it features a relatively new, yet up and coming spokesperson for the progressive minded in blogistan general. There are too few words to describe the potential impact this canine lover could have on the progressive movement.

As I said there are too few words to describe this gentleman of the left. So, rather than try I will leave you with just a brief description of his talents. He is very focused on melodrama, fancies himself a sort of Sherlock Holmes, and he has an apparent obsession with misplaced periods.

The volume of his thought is voluminous, and his edgy razor sharp analysis is as blunt as a hoe. But nonetheless the herculean efforts he has put forth in developing his following has been impressive. For this he deserves recognition, and from the conservative (not republican) and libertarian thinkers and bloggers a huge thank you. Check out the links provided and then spend some time perusing the balance of his creative work. You will I believe be, well... I'll leave that for you to decide.


Without further ado, the left's up and coming Blogger Extraordinaire

Intellectually Honest? .... Oops misplaced periods! The prior is open to debate. Hope you enjoy your perusal.