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It is So Comfortble to Not Need to Give a Rat's Arse Anymore About What Idiots Think...

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny



I have my share of disagreements with the progressive mindset. Especially, and particularly with the far out leftists that haven't a clue about what liberty and individual freedom means or the value of retaining the same.

However, every once in a while a person with a considerably (and I mean considerably as in a boatload of) more overall progressive viewpoint than my own comes along that makes a whole lot of sense. When these occasions arise I think I would be remiss if I did not consider the author's views as well as passing them on to a different and broader conservative libertarian audience than might be otherwise reached.

Tao Speaks - I am not a big fan of either of the two major political parties that exist today in the United States and the minor parties that do exist seem to cherish being extreme and exist for no other reason.

I do understand the economic policies of the Republican Party and I believe they are fundamentally flawed. I honestly can say that as far as the Democratic Party goes its policies are not all that much different.

In all honesty I think the concept of “fundamentally flawed” is based on the fact that I believe that an economic system, especially capitalism, has at its core a goal of creating wealth, creating an opportunity for wealth, and creating an environment for economic equality, that is equal to none.

Jobs should be a pathway to wealth and increasing income equality; our economy cannot create jobs.

Do you realize that from December 1999 until December 2009 our economy created a net of ZERO JOBS? Did you know that since December 1999 to December 2008 that middle-income households suffered a NET INCOME LOSS, when adjusted for inflation?

With the passage of NAFTA and the repeal of Glass-Steagall coupled with the supply side economics and anti-unionism of the 1980′s we have witnessed to slow but total destruction of our economic system in our country. This is reflected in our GDP where corporate, after tax profits, make up 11.1% of our GDP while wages and benefits have dropped to 43.5% of our GDP: Corporate profits have been growing and wages have been shrinking as a percentage of our GDP and there is no way to change that trend.

I want to know whose side are we on? {Read More}

After reading Tao's article this fiscally conservative social libertarian site would be most interested in your comments.

Being reasonable and of active mind is far superior to being locked into any ideological dogmatic drumbeat.

The Sarcasm Report v.177

August 8, 2013
Obama Urges Greece to Grow Its Economy

In a meeting in the Oval Office, Mr. Obama told Antonis Samaras, the Greek prime minister, that policies focused only on spending reductions would not help Greece return to economic prosperity.

This isn't rocket science. Greece just needs to crank up the monetary passenger car registration printing presses.


Click to enlarge.

Phase 1: Print 30,000 passenger car registrations
Phase 2: ?
Phase 3: Economic prosperity restored



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Household Net Worth vs. Wages

July 17, 2013
Bubbles Forever by Robert J. Shiller

Because bubbles are essentially social-psychological phenomena, they are, by their very nature, difficult to control.

As seen in the following charts, the bubbles are definitely getting increasingly difficult to control. In my opinion, it's not a coincidence that the housing bubble was worse than the dotcom bubble.


Click to enlarge.

The high points form an exponential trend. The low points form a 2nd order polynomial trend. In addition to the extremely high r-squared values, both trends have plenty of data points to support them. If current trends remain in place then the following is what we can expect to see in the distant future.


Click to enlarge.

The risks do not end here. Real wages per capita have fallen since 2000. These charts would imply that wages are very important to real net worth per capita, especially if we ever start to hug that blue trend line again. I could definitely see that happen. Just look at the period from 1952 to 1980 on the charts. There was no growth in the household net worth to wages ratio. The 1980s and 1990s are over. What comes next is anyone's guess.

In my opinion, this is long-term uncertainty of biblical proportions, especially for those who thought we were past the worst of it and have gone all in on risk. I can't speak for others, but baby most definitely does not need new shoes.



This is not investment advice.

See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Leisure and Hospitality

The following chart shows leisure and hospitality employment as a percentage of all nonfarm employment.


Click to enlarge.

This exponential trend shows no signs of stopping any time soon. Apparently this is where the jobs of the future will be. We keep cranking out college graduates with massive student debt though. Woohoo! Sigh.

The next chart shows leisure and hospitality earnings as a percentage of total private earnings. I'm only including production and nonsupervisory employees.


Click to enlarge.

Generally speaking, these jobs pay about 41% less. It's actually a bit worse than that. Average private earnings are being pulled down by these low paying jobs (more and more so as these jobs expand). Put another way, if leisure and hospitality jobs grow to 100% of employment (which they clearly won't), then leisure and hospitality jobs would pay the same as overall employment. They'd be one and the same thing.

The next chart shows how many years the typical leisure and hospitality production and nonsupervisory employee would have to work to buy a house with cash, assuming 2,000 hours worked per year and no other expenses (like interest on a mortgage loan, home maintenance, appliances, property taxes, income taxes, food, clothing, furniture, gasoline, new car purchases, auto maintenance, health care, and so on).


Click to enlarge.

As seen in the eyes of a leisure and hospitality employee, hello Housing Bubble II. Fantastic. This is where many of the jobs are being created and yet these employees cannot afford to make a median new home purchase. Hello?

The next chart shows how many hours the typical leisure and hospitality production and nonsupervisory employee would have to work to fill a 15 gallon gas tank (assuming no payroll taxes of any kind).


Click to enlarge.

4.6 hours! Is it any wonder that vehicle miles traveled per capita has peaked? This "new and improved" economy apparently requires workers to move very close to where they work. Unfortunately, the old economy was all about trapping people in the 'burbs.

Let's summarize. Leisure and hospitality is apparently the "growth" engine of the future. Production and nonsupervisory leisure and hospitality employees currently earn an average $11.76 per hour. They make roughly 41% less than the typical production and nonsupervisory employee. They have seen their real inflation adjusted earnings fall throughout most of this "recovery" (other than an initial dead cat bounce). They are working 4.6 hours to fill a 15 gallon gasoline tank (with additional hours to pay the payroll taxes on those earnings). They'd have to work 11.3 years to pay for the median house with cash (assuming no other expenses or taxes of any kind).

This is not investment advice. If it was, I'd suggest that the nearly 1.3 million leisure and hospitality employees added since the bottom should probably not be looking at new homes to purchase in the weeks ahead, especially if they have massive student debt. That's just the crazy opinion of a permabear though. What do I know?

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Leisure and Hospitality Employment Analysis
St. Louis Fed: Leisure and Hospitality Earnings Analysis
St. Louis Fed: Leisure and Hospitality Housing Analysis
St. Louis Fed: Leisure and Hospitality Gasoline Analysis

Floral Opulence


Baroque trend, BCBGeneration, bittersweet colours, floral prints, Floral trend, Monet, Paul & Joe sister, street style, vintage,

Baroque trend, BCBGeneration, bittersweet colours, floral prints, Floral trend, Monet, Paul & Joe sister, street style, vintage,
Baroque trend, BCBGeneration, bittersweet colours, floral prints, Floral trend, Monet, Paul & Joe sister, street style, vintage,
Baroque trend, BCBGeneration, bittersweet colours, floral prints, Floral trend, Monet, Paul & Joe sister, street style, vintage,
Baroque trend, BCBGeneration, bittersweet colours, floral prints, Floral trend, Monet, Paul & Joe sister, street style, vintage,
Baroque trend, BCBGeneration, bittersweet colours, floral prints, Floral trend, Monet, Paul & Joe sister, street style, vintage,
Baroque trend, BCBGeneration, bittersweet colours, floral prints, Floral trend, Monet, Paul & Joe sister, street style, vintage,
Baroque trend, BCBGeneration, bittersweet colours, floral prints, Floral trend, Monet, Paul & Joe sister, street style, vintage,
Baroque trend, BCBGeneration, bittersweet colours, floral prints, Floral trend, Monet, Paul & Joe sister, street style, vintage,
Baroque trend, BCBGeneration, bittersweet colours, floral prints, Floral trend, Monet, Paul & Joe sister, street style, vintage,



A quick Hello to all of you and a bold printed outfit that captures a visual floral opulence in full bloom. A modern take of Baroque inspired prints for a day out at the Art Museum. Obviously I can't help myself popping prints & colours every day:) I hope you like it!





                                                                      Dress: Paul & Joe Sister/ similar HereHere and Here 
                                                                      Heels: BCBGeneration/on sale Here and Here 
                                                        Clutch: vintage/ great option Here and Here 
                                                                      Necklace: Monet/ similar Here and Here 
                                                                      Sunglasses: Betsey Johnson/ option Here and Here 





Goodwill Disabled Workers Get Less Than 25 Cents An Hour In 13 Franchises

Goodwill executives make more than six figures while disabled workers are paid less than 25 cents an hour, not even a cost of living wage available to disenfranchised workers with disabilities.

August 11, 2013

Milwaukee, WI (HNNUSA) - U.S. disabled workers are paid 25 cents or less an hour while executives get 6 figures in 13 states of Goodwill Franchises including Wisconsin under Section 14 (c) of the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938, NBC News reported. Disabled workers have been discriminated for years, even in modern day America.
The vintage act should be repeal or revoked, act now! What a shame that the GOP and Democrats in Congress, including the Obama administration look the other way.

Long-Term Motor Fuel Trends

The following chart shows total vehicle miles traveled divided by total motor gasoline supplied.


Click to enlarge.

The next chart shows fuel efficiency standards.


Click to enlarge.

Like generals fighting the last war, the government is finally adapting to higher oil prices. It only took them 10 years or so to spot the trend.

August 10, 2013
The Illusion of an Auto Industry "Recovery"

The next chart shows the total vehicle miles traveled per capita.


Click to enlarge.

The typical American is adapting much faster than the government. Big shocker. Here is the question of the day. Now that they are both on the same page, what will their combined efforts do going forward?

August 10, 2013
Calculated Risk: Forecasts: Oil and Gasoline Prices expected to decline

I'm not going to lose any sleep thinking about peak oil tonight. I shall dream of perma-ZIRP instead. It's the gift that keeps on giving!



Source Data:
EIA: Motor Gasoline
St. Louis Fed: Vehicle Miles Traveled
Wikipedia: Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE)

Convicted Druglord Who In 1985 Ordered DEA Agent Camarena's Murder Freed From Mexican Prison

Rafael Caro Quintero and Enrique "Kiki" Camarena

Quintero won an appeal and a federal court overturned his conviction and 40 year sentence for the 1985 murder of DEA Agent Camarena in Jalisco.

By H. Nelson Goodson
August 10, 2013

Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico - On Friday, Rafael Caro Quintero, 58, a reputed druglord and former founder of the Guadalajara Cartel walked out a free man from prison after a federal court overturned his 40 year prison sentence and conviction for the 1985 murder of DEA Agent Enrique "Kiki" Camarena in Guadalajara, Jalisco. After serving 28 years in prison, the court found that Quintero should have been prosecuted in a state court and not a federal court. The court's decision and Quintero's released was kept secret until Quintero had been released indicating the three judge panel was bought off. 
Media outlets were notified after his release and the U.S. government (DEA) learned of Quintero's release from the Mexican media.
Also, Mexican lawyers representing two other men convicted for Camarena's murder have submitted the same appeal arguments used in Quintero's release. Both Miguel Angel Felix Gallardo and Ernesto Fonseca Carrillo, known druglords in Nothern Sinaloa are also expected to be release from prison after their appeals are processed. 
The U.S. has indicted Quintero for drug laundering, but it is not clear yet, if the U.S. will seek extradition.
Quintero and the other suspects ordered Camarena killed after their $10 billion dollar marijuana and drug manufacturing ranch called the Baffalo was raided and confiscated by Mexican federal authorities. Camarena and his pilot were kidnapped in Guadalajara and then their bodies were discovered in a shallow grave a month later. Both Camarena and his pilot's bodies showed signs of torture before being killed. 

One Theory for the Recent TIPS Buying Opportunity

The following chart shows the spread between the 30-year TIPS yield and the 20-year TIPS yield.


Click to enlarge.

The spread was clearly following the surface of Jeremy Siegel's head. I factored in something that most investors did not though. Yields would bounce off his left ear! Genius!

In all seriousness, we almost experienced an inverted yield curve between the 20-year TIPS and the 30-year TIPS. In hindsight (at least so far), the 20-year TIPS therefore became a relatively good buying opportunity. If the bond market is the stock market's smarter brother, then it would be hard to see it in this chart. Once the panic began, crazy things happened.

Some investors might find it difficult to invest in TIPS with his eyes peering at us like that, but all I see is Kilroy!

According to one story, it was reported that German intelligence found the phrase on captured American equipment. This began leading Hitler to believe that Kilroy could be the name or codename of a high-level Allied spy.

I'm not suggesting that Professor Kilroy is a high-level Allied spy, but there have been days when I've been convinced that he's working in counter-intelligence.



Jeremy Siegel

Some have criticized Professor Siegel for being bullish on the stock market back in 2000. In a BusinessWeek interview in May 2000 when asked about the stock market, he replied: "Seven percent per year [average] real returns on stocks is what I find over nearly two centuries. I don't see persuasive reasons why it should be any different from that over the intermediate run. In the short run, it could be almost anything."

Shame on me for creating this chart. I just couldn't help myself! I have a twisted sense of humor and this was way too good to pass up. :)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Help a Mom Caregiving a Young Daughter with Extremely Debilitating Cerebral Palsey – Just a Vote – No Money

Grumpy Opinions notified me that one of his readers and an occasional contributor to his site has an 9-year-old granddaughter with Cerebral Palsy. She has never walked without assistance. She cannot speak without a specialized computer program. Now she has also been diagnosed with “mitochondrial degeneration.” Her name is Alexa Savage and her devoted Mom, Kimberly has been nominated to receive a “caregiver” cruise. If she wins, she can take the whole family along, including Alexa. All you have to do is visit this site and cast a vote for Kimberly Savage. When I voted, I was not asked to donate, didn’t even see a place to donate.

It’s just your vote and it will mean so much to this family
.
 Please bookmark the site and vote once a day through August 24th. Here’s what Alexa’s grandfather sent to Grumpy Opinions:

To help her mother, Kimberly Savage, win a caregiver cruise (and take along the entire family) click the photo and vote. You will NOT be asked for a donation.
Alexa Savage is 8 years old. She has had cerebral palsy since birth. She has never been able to walk or speak without assistance, but she can use a computer, and goes to school in 2d grade. She speaks thru a specialized talking computer. She likes to read, but has trouble with math. She likes to swim, but has to watch others run and play. Most days she plays with her video collection on her free time. Her parents do all they can with their time and resources to get Alexa the therapy and support she needs.
Alexa has recently been diagnosed with “mitochondrial degeneration”. Basically, the “engines” inside her cells that process nutrients are breaking down. As new cells grow, there are fewer and fewer working mitochondria. Eventually this will mean that she can’t sustain life and will go into seizures and her heart will stop. We don’t know how much longer Alexa may last. She is already 3 years past the doctors’ best-case estimates.

Her parents would like to take Alexa on one last adventure, a cruise, as long as she is still functioning rather well. It would mean a lot to the entire family. Alexa would be able to take along her sister and brother on this cruise as well, which would do them all a lot of good. We need a little help from you, however. Please do all you can. Click on the link below and that is all we ask. No donation, just a vote. This is not a phony gimmick or some marketing ploy, but a real request to help a real girl and her family, and it won’t cost you anything. Just a vote.

http://cruise.caregiverstress.com/view-vote-for-entries/?k=Kimberly+Savage
Please vote once a day till August 24.
The following was written by Alexa’s grandfather at the Caregiving Cruise website:
My daughter, Kimberly Savage, has been caring for her 9 yr old daughter with Celebral Palsy (who doesn’t walk or talk) for 9 years. In addition she is now working 40-60 hrs a week at a full time job since her husband, Jason, was layed off in January 2013.
Alexa requires 24 hr assistance as she can not do anything for herself. My daughter, works like Superwoman to accomplish everything she does everyday. She’s an incredible human being. Her stress level is beyond the stroke level and she so very very much deserves this time away.

In addition she has two other school age children ages 6 and 11. She is constantly helping others with special needs to get things to help them. She is a huge advocate for others. She goes way out of her way to help so many children and adults, I’d love to think someone could help her. God bless you and your caregiver award committee.
Please vote every day. There is time to get Mrs. Savage to the No. 1 spot from her current 91. Bloggers, please feel free to take this post and use it from your site to help this family. 

Linked at Wake Up America! Thanks Susan!
and
Maggie's Notebook  Thanks Maggie
and
Monkey in the Middle  Thanks Findalis

The Illusion of an Auto Industry "Recovery"

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of total vehicle miles traveled.


Click to enlarge.

What recovery? For what it is worth, I do not believe we will ever reach that peak again. If four full years of "recovery" combined with 4+ years of ZIRP hasn't made any progress towards returning to our former illusionary glory, then what can?

This chart implies that there will not be any long-term auto industry growth within the U.S. (other than the temporary pent-up demand created during recessions). How's that for greatly depressing?

The next chart shows the total vehicle miles traveled per capita.


Click to enlarge.

I know this sounds crazy, but ever since yesterday on the road, I've been seeing this shape. Shaving cream, pillows. Dammit! I know this. I know what this is! This means something. This is important. - Roy Neary, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, 1977

As seen in the chart, welcome to 1998. I turned into a permabear in the fall of 2004 (just as the upward trend was beginning to peak). I watched the stock market roar on without me into 2007. I then watched as the stock market come roaring back down. It's roaring back up again on the misguided hopes of luring me back in perhaps. I have but one thing to say.

Yawn.

July 19, 2013
Calculated Risk: DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 0.9% in May

With all these factors, it might take several more years before we see a new peak in miles driven.

Based on what? Put me down for never. Seriously. If we're driving even half as many miles per capita after our population has doubled, then I would be extremely surprised. It would mean that the virtual reality video games of the distant future, pardon my language, suck. It would also mean that Amazon.com hasn't figured out a way to automate most retail sales jobs (or for that matter, jobs in general). I'm certainly not betting on that outcome! This is assuming our population even will double of course. I have my doubts on that as well. Things happen to countries stuck in ZIRP.

Working Age Population in Japan

Click to enlarge.

July 9, 2013
Baby bust? National birthrate hits an all-time low due to weak economic recovery

The recession has been over for four years, but the birth rate in the U.S. continues to fall as many people struggle with a sluggish economy and financial uncertainty.

According to a recent analysis by the Pew Institute, since 2007 when there were a record 4,316,233 births, the number of births has been steadily declining, with 4,007,000 births in 2012 - the lowest number since 1998.

Like I said previously, welcome to 1998.

I'll leave on this bonus thought. If the economy of the future really does stink then perhaps more people will start to carpool. Could there be any more single occupancy vehicles out on the road? I'm not being judgmental. I'm as guilty as the next person. I'm just saying that there is plenty of fat to cut when the fat needs cutting. And as a side note, Ben Bernanke desperately wants us to not cut the fat, lest we experience Great Recession II, return of the killer recession. Sigh.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Moving 12-Month Total Vehicle Miles Traveled
St. Louis Fed: Moving 12-Month Total Vehicle Miles Traveled per Capita
St. Louis Fed: Working Age Population: Aged 15 and Over: All Persons for Japan

Most Amusing Quote of the Year!

Most Amusing Quote of the Year!
August 7, 2013
Time for the gaming industry to take addiction seriously

Thinking about addiction at the design stage would be a far more significant move. Online videogame developers and publishers need to look into the structural features of their games during the design process, including the character development, rapid absorption rate and multi-player features that make them addictive in the first place.

Hey, perhaps this can be done in the tobacco and fast food industries too! Right there in the design stage!

As the new CEO of Philip Morris, it has come to my attention that cigarettes are very addicting. What can we do to stop that? I'm thinking the next generation cigarette could have a thin protective prophylaxis glued around it after it is dipped in breath freshening mouthwash. Let's brainstorm!

As the new CEO of McDonalds, it has come to my attention that Big Macs are very addicting. What can we do to stop that? I'm thinking that the next generation Big Mac could use unsweetened yogurt in place of the special sauce and the meat could be replaced with dried kelp. Let's brainstorm!

As the new CEO of 7-11, it has come to my attention that our Big Gulps are very addicting. What can we do to stop that? I'm thinking that the next generation Big Gulp cup and its straw could be mostly filled with resin to reduce both the quantity and the flow. Let's brainstorm!

Genius!

Here's the perfect ad campaign straight from Despair.com!

Customer Disservice

Because we're not satisfied until you're not satisfied.

Chicago Mexican Consulate Has A Two Month Backlog To Get Documents

Carlos Martín Jiménez Macías, Consul General of the Chicago Mexican Consulate

Photos: HNG/HNNUSA

Mexican nationals residing in Wisconsin advocating for Mexico's Secretary of Exterior Relations (SRE) to open a Consulate in the state.


By H. Nelson Goodson
August 9, 2013

Milwaukee, WI - On Friday, hundreds of Mexican nationals and non-nationals gathered at South Division High School to meet the newly appointed Consul General Carlos Martín Jiménez Macías to the Chicago Mexican Consulate. Consul General Macías said that he supports the Milwaukee's Mexican community need to have a Consulate in Wisconsin and backed his statement by confirming that the Chicago Consulate has a two month waiting period for any Mexican national seeking documents, including passport requests.
Macías also confirmed that the Consulate staff is now facing another major work load for processing thousands of requests for the Matricula Consular (MX ID). More than 250,000 Mexican nationals residing in Illinois are expected to apply for a license or state ID this year and will most likely need a Matricula Consular as a form of ID.
In January, Illinois Governor Pat Quinn (D) signed into law a bill allowing more than 250,000 of non-citizens to become eligible for state driver's licenses. The law takes effect in November and non-citizens can begin to apply for licenses.
Some other concerns that Macías heard from Wisconsin Mexican nationals, were the long waiting periods at the Consulate when someone goes for an appointment, the lack of respect and unwarranted treatment that some Consulate staffers give clients and the extortions that some Mexican nationals face when returning to Mexico without the proper Mexican government legal documents due to the backlogs of Consulates.
Salvador Sánchez, a Milwaukee community advocate and former U.M.O.S. Director told  Consul General Macías that some of the Mexican Consulate staffers in Chicago should be trained by taking sessions on how to treat people with repect. Sánchez's adviced drew major applause by those attending the gathering. Other people allowed to speak supported Sánchez's allegations. Sánchez has advocated for opening a Consulate in Milwaukee for years.
A resident from Waukesha, Eulogio Longoria said, that hundreds of Mexican nationals returning to Mexico through the bordertowns of Reynosa, Nuevo Laredo and Matamoros face extortion by Mexican officials for not having the legal documents required to be allowed to continue into the interior of Mexico. Longoria says, people have to pay between $20 to $100 to corrupt officials at checkpoints near the Mexican border.
A woman also said, that co-nationals take a risk to drive to Chicago from Milwaukee without documents and then have to wait long hours for services from the Consulate. Consul General Macías adviced people to leave their children home because the Chicago Consulate is small and can't acommodate space or daycare for children.
Consul Luis Angel Castañeda Flores for Community Affairs for the Chicago Consulate said, that last year, more than 16,000 documents including passports were issued to Wisconsin Mexican nationals and so far this year, more than 13,000 documents have been issued and they expect to break their record for 2013. 
Several years ago, the Mexican Consulate in Chicago generated more than $5 million dollars in revenue from Mexicans nationals paying for services and document requests, according to Consulate sources. Consul Flores or Consul General Macías would not give an actual estimate of how much revenue it has generated per year, since Macías confirmed that the Chicago Mexican Consulate falls between second or third in generating the most revenue from nationals living in the U.S. The Mexican Consulate in Chicago serves the tri-state area in the Mid-West, which includes Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana.
Also Franciso De La Torre Galindo, the executive director for the Mexican Institute of the Exterior said, that New Jersey Mexican nationals had been advocating for a Consulate in their state for the last twelve years and that Mexican nationals residing in North Carolina had advocated for a Consulate for almost twelve years and finally opened one in Raleigh about seven years ago. 
The time line to get a Mexican Consulate open in Milwaukee seemed very remote, but Consul General Macías believes it can be done sooner. Macías acknowledged a two month backlog to get any type of documents from the Consulate in Chicago. The estimated revenue alone generated by the Consulate per year, which is not easily made public indicates that Consul General Macías has a big task to reconstruct and provide innovative ways and services to correspond with the millions of dollars in revenues generated by the Consulate. Which today, some Consulate services seem to be slacking, according to the Mexican nationals that pay with U.S. dollars instead of pesos for services not easily made available to them on a timely manner.

Health Care vs. New-Autos

August 1, 2013
New-Car Sales Continue Strong Pace in July

“July car sales suggest that shoppers are willing to make their car purchases a priority over other goods,” says Edmunds.com Sr. Analyst Michelle Krebs.

But how far would shoppers be willing to go for a great deal? Let's compare how much shoppers are spending on health care and compare that to the amount shoppers are spending on new cars.


Click to enlarge.

The long-term trend is over! First, the exponential trend failed to the upside. Now it is failing to the downside! It can mean only one thing. Although shoppers recently made health care a priority (during the recession), they are finally permanently making new cars a new priority! It's about time! Hurray! Just say no to kidney operations!

Let's look to see just how much below the trend line we are. I'm using a 4-quarter moving average to smooth out the data.


Click to enlarge.

Oh, yes. That's totally sustainable. We're no doubt ushering in a whole new era of U.S. economic prosperity! I have never been quite so optimistic (except perhaps in 2000 and 2006 of course).

Reuters adds, “Monthly [car] sales are regarded as an early indicator of the U.S. economy's health.

In all seriousness, I'm just not sure that conventional wisdom has an accurate understanding of what it could mean. I'm not a well-respected economist with vast credentials, but I would argue that the hangover from binge buying could offer up some serious headaches again at some point. But hey, that's just me.

In related news, let's see if all this new found optimism will translate into more driving to JC Penney and Sears. The following chart shows long-term vehicle miles traveled per capita growth.


Click to enlarge.

Perhaps not.

Why do all the long-term charts I create look so painful? I must be very unlucky. I'll never get a guest spot on CNBC if I can't figure out what I'm doing wrong!

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
St. Louis Fed: Vehicle Miles Traveled per Capita Growth

Husband Gets Life With Eligibility For Parole For Wauwatosa Officer Sebena's Murder

Jennifer Lynn Sebena and Benjamin Sebena

Husband gets life in prison with possible parole after 35 years for killing his wife, a Wauwatosa Police Officer on Christmas Eve.

By H. Nelson Goodson
August 9, 2013

Milwaukee, Wisconsin - On Friday, Benjamin Sebena, 30, of Wauwatosa was sentenced to life in prison with the possibility of parole after serving 35 years in prison by Milwaukee County Circuit Court Judge David Borowski for the homicide of his wife, Wauwatosa Police Officer Jennifer Lynn Sebena, 30, on Christmas Eve 2012. Benjamin will be at least 65-years-old when he is eligible for parole. 
Benjamin received a light sentence by Judge Borowski, because he claimed that he was suffering from post-traumatic stress when he in cold blood ambushed his wife while she was coming out from a firehouse after her break.
The criminal complaint states, that Benjamin had waited for almost two hours at the Wauwatosa Fire Station One for his wife on December 24. He spotted her squad nearby the station and when Officer Sebena emerged from her break at the fire station, Benjamin got close and pulled out a 9MM Cal. handgun and shot her twice in the back of the head from a distance. Sebena tried to reach for her service weapon, but Benjamin disarmed her and then shot her three times in the face (head) with her .40 Cal. service handgun. Police confirmed, Sebena was shot five times.
Her body was found outside the fire house at Underwood Avenue around 4:28 a.m. by another officer.
Benjamin told police, he shot Sebena in the head because he wanted to make sure that she was dead and wouldn't suffer. He then took her service weapon, including his gun and hid them in the attic of their residence where authorities recovered them.
Benjamin actually went to the police station asking about his wife because he was worried. On Christmas Day while being questioned by police, he broke down and was detained after stating, "How could I do that to her." He then confessed to police that he killed her.
Officer Sebena who was seeking a divorce from her husband, on December 6, apparently told another officer that she was a victim of domestic violence when her husband took out a handgun during an argument and then put it to her head, according to the criminal complaint. There is no indication that the officer alerted other officers or the Wauwatosa Police Department (WPD) command about Sebena's abuse by her husband and that she might be in danger. Chief Weber indicated, the domestic abuse was never reported by the officer or Officer Sebena.
Benjamin's outburst resulted from a jealousy rage brought upon his believe that his wife was seeing other men. He admitted of stalking Officer Sebena for days leading to her murder.
It was never determined that Officer Sebena was actually cheating on her husband.
Benjamin is a Marine Iraq War Veteran who received a Purple Heart for his injuries during his tour of military service. He served two tours in Iraq and was severely injured.
He met Sebena on MySpace and later married her. Officer Sebena is the first to be killed in the line of duty in the 96 year history of the WPD.
She had served in the WPD for several years and had no children. 

Set up Multi Foscam IP Cameras On Your System

Set up Multi Foscam IP Cameras On Your System
Reposted From This Link:

Foscam Forum Post

Complete Foscam setup-multiple Foscams
« on: April 08, 2011, 04:52:39 PM »
Not sure if this is a good place to post this info but wanted to share so others benefit. It is one way to setup multiple Foscams (F18918W) that can be accessed over the internet. Tried to write what I learned from multiple forums into this one forum in the most simple language as possible.
No doubt there are probably other ways to make these cameras work but this one simply works.
First, there are multiple variables any one of which will result in the same thing. No image.
For the record here’s how to do it for homes with a single Cable Modem (Not DSL), single Router and multiple Foscam IP cameras:
There is an order of how things are setup:
1.   Get a Dynamic Host Name (Domain server) for each camera
2.   Setup Camera #1 to a Static IP address…then setup Camera #2…#3….
3.   Setup your Router to match your Cameras and Dynamic Host Name (Domain server)
Router setting for these cameras to work over the Internet:
1.   Must use Port Forwarding.
2.   Must use a Static IP for each camera
3.   Must establish a unique Port for each camera.
4.   Don’t use uPNP. It is inconsistent.
5.   Don’t use your router DHCP for these cameras. It only works for locally attached devices. It’s OK to have a “Mixed” setup of static and DHCP devices in your LAN (Subnet). Leave your router DHCP turned on for other devices but also setup a few “Static” addresses specifically for these cameras.
1.   Define this info for each camera:
a.   Camera MAC address (Foscam has a three labels on the bottom. The one with the default log in info contains the “Real” MAC Address for the camera).
b.   Unique Dyndns.org “Name”
c.   Device/Camera Name
d.   IP address-Wire
e.   IP Address-Wireless
f.   Port # for wire. Port # for Wireless
2.   Go to Dyndns.com and setup a Dynamic Host Name. I set one up for each camera. I selected dyndns.com create account and from within selected dyndns.org. ( [a unique number/name]dyndns.org) but you may select any of the domains as long as you are consistent.
3.   Write down the MAC address of each camera in your map.
4.   Camera 1: Connect the “hardwire” connection from your router (Cat5 cable) to the camera. Forget about wireless for now).
5.   Plug in power and network wire all cameras and do NOT hit their reset buttons. These things are setup “Out of the box” to work.
Router Setup:
1.   Enter router setup utility with your admin name and password. (Don’t know it? Ask your search engine of choice by entering What is my default login for my [Router brand name] ? in your browser search engine.
2.   Look for and verify DHCP is turned. (Your router is your LAN DHCP server. It “Serves" addresses automatically to any device on your local home network that also have DHCP turned on.
3.   Most routers use either 192.168.0.1 0R 192.168.1.1 For clarity I will use 192.168.1.1 for the rest of these instructions.
4.   Under your LAN settings you should be able to reserve addresses for devices.
5.   Verify the address “range” of your LAN is from 192.168.1.2 through 253 (Note: Your Router by default is assigned to the first address of your subnet (LAN) 192.168.0.1 or 192.168.1.1).
6.   Reserve an IP address of your LAN for each Camera. I started with 192.168.1.10 for the Wire connection and 192.168.1.20 for the Wireless connection of the camera. You will need the MAC address for each camera and a separate port number.
7.   Find uPNP setting. Turn it OFF. It’s just plain unreliable.
8.   Find Port Forwarding. Assign a port to each Foscam (2 unique port #'s- Wire and Wireless access) If asked for a range of ports enter the same port number for the beginning and end of range. Examplefor wire: 5200/5200. The camera will always be accessible by the hard Wire through this specific port 5200. Use port 5201 for the Wireless access.
9.   For Wireless, enter wireless settings and note the encryption method you are using Example: WPA2 Personal (TKIP+AES), and the Shared key. If one is not defined then you need to learn about home network security. (For another day) and set this up to get wireless access to the camera(s).
10.   Save the new router setup.
11.   Enter the router once again and backup the router setup.
Camera Setup:
1.   Load “Easy Config” software.
2.   Connect the “hardwire” connection (Cat5 cable) on the camera. Forget about wireless for now).
3.   Access Foscam #1 by selecting the Camera in the IP Camera Tool (This will be a local access connection and cannot be seen over the internet)
4.   Log in with the default login and password for the foscam.
5.   Select: Administrator.
6.   Select: Alias Settings and enter a unique camera name. Example: Kitchen1 (Submit to save changes).
7.   Select Date & Time. Set your timezone, Select: Sync with NTP Server, Select: time.nist.gov (Submit to save changes)
8.   Under User Settings Add your camera’s admin name and password, select: Administrator.
9.   Under uPNP settings: Turn it OFF. It’s just plain unreliable. (Submit to change)
10.   Select Basic Network Settings
11.   Turn OFF Obtain IP from DHCP server.
12.   Enter the IP address you reserved for this camera (The Wire) In my example I used 192.168.1.10
13.   Enter the Subnet Mask 255.255.255.0
14.   Enter the Gateway (Which is your router subnet IP) in my example it would be: 192.168.1.1
15.   The DNS server is the same as the Gateway (Router) 192.168.1.1
16.   Http Port is the port number you reserved for camera #1 In my example this would be 5200 (Note: DO NOT use 80 or 8080). (Submit to save changes).
17.   If you are going to use this as a wireless camera then enter Wireless Setup.
18.   Scan, Select the network of choice that pops up in the box (Autofills the info below) SSID= The name of your Home network Typically it is MSHOME (Not a good practice but that’s for another day). Encryption MUST match whatever encryption method defined in your router. Enter Shared Key. (Submit to save changes).
19.   Repeat steps 2-18 for all cameras in your network.
20.   Done. You will now have Internet Viewing capability.
How to test:
1.   There are a number of ways to get your “external” IP address. Use your Search Engine of choice and locate one. Your external address will be something like 60.91.29.65. It will NOT be 192.168.x.x.
2.   Open a new browser and enter http://60.91.29.65:5200 (Specific camera Port numbers.)
3.   If your Foscam software access window appears you have correctly configured your camera over the Internet and it can be accessed remotely via a web browser from anywhere in the world that allows this type of access.
4.   Unplug the wire from the camera.
5.   192.168.1.20
6.   Open a new browser and enter http://60.91.29.65:52001(Specific camera Port numbers.)
7.   If your Foscam software access window appears you have correctly configured your camera over the Internet (and it is accessible via the Wireless port) can be accessed remotely via a web browser from anywhere in the world that allows this type of access.
8.   You can leave the wire connected to the camera. It will not affect your wireless access. You can only setup the camera over a wired access to the camera.
9. Your actual address for your cameras using dyndns.org to ensure continued connection (If your ISP changes your external IP address) will be: [uniquenameCam1.dyndns.org:[port]
10. save them in your browser "Favorites".

Dividends Minus Borrowing


Click to enlarge.

It would seem that corporations are already back to borrowing a dollar for every dollar paid in dividends. I wonder what they are doing with it all.

May 1, 2013
Why Fantastically Wealthy Apple Is Borrowing Money

That means Apple can pay out a penny or more for every dollar it raises in bonds, or lose about one-third of every foreign dollar it brings back home. “It’s not hard to do the math there,” Blouin says.

Not every company is as fantastically wealthy as Apple of course.

May 21, 2013
J.C. Penney Said to Reduce Rate on $2.25 Billion Term Loan

The ratings company has a “negative” outlook on J.C. Penney, noting the retailer would “continue to experience a sizable cash flow burn in the second and third quarters of 2013.”

It burns.

Source Data:
FRB: Z.1 Release
St. Louis Fed: CPI

"The Street Was Covered with Blood and Bodies" Remembering The Sbarro Bombing August 9, 2001

Hat Tip to Yid With Lid


Twelve years ago Palestinians blew up a pizza place in the heart of Jerusalem. One month later, other Islamist terrorists blew up the World Trade Centers in NY, the Pentagon Building in Washington DC, and were foiled in their attempt to destroy the Capital building by the brave passengers of Flight 93.

It is important to remember these acts not simply to memorialize the innocent victims who's only crime was to be at the wrong place at the wrong time, but as a reminder that terrorism still suckles at the teat of political correctness and Western World appeasement.

Her eyes, I think, will stay with me forever. Imploring, beseeching, full of so much sadness. I think the shock of where and how she was, was sinking in. I can't begin to describe all that was in those eyes.

Yesterday; Thursday, August 9th the 20th of Av, on my way to work, I found myself walking down Yaffo street. Hungry, I decided to stop and grab a quick bite... at Sbarro's Pizza.

In the past 5 years I have frequented this establishment exactly twice. Walking into Sbarro's there is a larger area for sitting in the front, but the back looked a bit cooler and quieter, so I decided to grab a seat in the back. That decision saved my life.

Waiting on line, when they brought me the baked Zitti I asked for, it was cold. So I asked the woman behind the counter if she'd mind warming it up. "Ein Ba'ayah", no problem, she said with a smile. I will always wonder if that was her last smile on earth... A couple of moments later, a fellow from behind the counter came to the back with my baked Ziti. Then he started to speak to someone at one of the tables... That baked Ziti saved his life.


At about 2PM, I both felt & heard a tremendous explosion, and day turned into night. And then the screaming began. An awful, heartrending sound; the sound of people coming to terms with a whole new reality, of people not wanting to comprehend that life has changed forever. Those of us sitting in the back were spared, but I was afraid of panic, so I started yelling at everyone to quieten down; not to panic. The ceiling looked like it might cave in, but there is always the danger of a second explosion, detonated on purpose shortly after the first... But then I smelled smoke, and was suddenly afraid the restaurant mightbe on fire. So we started climbing our way through the wreckage to the front.

Would there be another explosion? Would the roof collapse? Were we making the wrong decision, climbing through? There are moments that last a lifetime... There are no words to describe what the front of Sbarro's Pizza looked like in the immediate aftermath of that explosion. A woman was lying near the steps to the back. Her eyes were staring straight at me, following me. So full of pain and longing, sadness and despair. I dropped down becide her trying to ellicit a response to see if she could speak. And then I watched the life just drain out of her. I tried to get a pulse, to no avail. She died there, on the steps in front of me. She was lying by the table I had decided not to sit at...

There were bodies everywhere, and those images are in my mind; they won't let go. A child's body under the wreckage; a baby-carriage; limbs and a torso; A woman holding a motor-cycle helmet and screaming next to a person on the floor who had obviously been someone she was with... And then the mad rush to help the ambulance and emergency crews get the wounded out. They were obviously afraid of a second bomb, so there was no medical effort inside beyond getting the wounded on to stretchers and out. A religious Jew missing at least two limbs in tears and shock; what do you say? "yehiyeh Be'Seder" it'll be all right? Will it?






I happened to sit a bit to the left as you walk towards the back, and so the wall behind me shielded me from the blast. Another fellow whom we went back in to get wasn't so lucky. Sitting only 5 or 6 feet to my left, he caught the full force of the blast and was thrown in the air. When we got him on the stretcher he was bleeding profusely and was missing a leg... There are no words to describe what that man's hand, clenched around my arm, felt like. He just kept looking from me to his leg and back again. I started saying Tehillim ...

So many mixed emotions fill my head today. I came home last night and gave each of my children a very long hug... But there are so many families today who are waking up to the reality that life will never be the same. 17 funerals with friends and families saying goodbye to those they loved so, whose only crime was a desire for a slice of Pizza on a beautiful Jerusalem afternoon... A Personal Account of the Bombing, by Rabbi Binny Freedman




Click here if the video fails to load.
This horrible bombing was part of what has become known as the second intifada. Israel and the Palestinians had been close to a peace deal where Arafat would get almost everything he asked for, but neither the terrorist or his people were ready for peace so Arafat authorized a wave of horrible homicide bombings.

Although Secretary of State Kerry has forced the Palestinians into talking, they still have no desire to make peace. Those "peace-loving, moderate" terrorists of Fatah, run by Palestinian Authority's (PA) President Abbas, claim to the world they are looking to make peace with their Israeli neighbors. The truth is the moderates do not run the PA, it is the radicals who still run Fatah, its ruling party.

Witness the fact that the PA almost nothing has been done to prepare the Palestinians for a compromise peace and two-state solution alongside Israel. In fact Jews and Israel are demonized and terrorists are honored. In schools, children are taught that the anti-Semitic Protocols of the Elders of Zion is true and there are TV programs glorifying those who participated in mass-murder.

Terrorist Ahlam Tamimi


Terrorist Ahlam Tamimi has been described as the person who drove drove the suicide bomber to the Sbarro pizza shop in Jerusalem in August 2001. But that is an understatement.

On the day of the massacre (9th August 2001), she personally transported the bomb (10 kg) from a West Bank town into Jerusalem, concealed inside a guitar case. Taxi cabs brought her and an accomplice by the name of Al Masri, a young, newly-religious fanatic, to an Israeli security checkpoint and from there into Jerusalem.

To reduce suspicion, they dressed as Israelis and the bomb was not detected. Tamimi, who inspired, planned and engineered the Sbarro attack, personally led her "weapon" - Al Masri - to the target she had carefully selected at Jerusalem's busiest intersection.

The target was the Sbarro pizza restaurant,because it was located in the heart of Jerusalem and on a hot summer vacation afternoon it would be teeming with women and children. Tamimi instructed Al Masri to wait fifteen minutes before detonating the explosives to give her sufficient time to flee the scene safely. He followed her orders. As to this being (as some journalists have implied) an act of momentary madness or lack of sound thinking, take into account that a short time prior to Sbarro attack.

Tamimi carried out a 'dry run', placing an explosive inside a downtown Jerusalem supermarket (Hamashbir Lazarchan) which exploded causing damage but resulting in no injuries.

Fifteen people were murdered in the attack, 7 of them children. Ahlam Tamimi was captured, jailed for the murders, but released as part of the Giliad Shalit deal despite the fact she showed no remorse for her mass-murder.



The names of the dead are:
  • Giora Balash, 60, of Brazil
  • Zvika Golombek, 26, of Carmiel
  • Shoshana Yehudit Greenbaum, 31, of the U.S.
  • Tehila Maoz, 18, of Jerusalem
  • Frieda Mendelsohn, 62, of Jerusalem
  • Michal Raziel, 16, of Jerusalem
  • Malka Roth, 15, of Jerusalem
  • Mordechai Schijveschuurder, 43, of Neria
  • Tzira Schijveschuurder, 41, of Neria
  • Ra'aya Schijveschuurder, 14, of Neria
  • Avraham Yitzhak Schijveschuurder, 4, of Neria
  • Hemda Schijveschuurder, 2, of Neria
  • Lily Shimashvili, 33, of Jerusalem
  • Tamara Shimashvili, 8, of Jerusalem
  • Yocheved Shoshan, 10, of Jerusalem


When Yassir Arafat started on his murderous rampage in 1964 (three years before the 6 day war), he was treated like the animal he was. Then slowly through a combination of Arab Oil power and the world's continued hatred of Jews, the murderous rampage was treated with appeasement, and the Islamic world was taught that terrorism is a legitimate means of political expression.

And they learned well. That appeasement of Palestinian Terror directly lead to 9/11/11 and the War on Terror the Western World still fights today.

The Sbarro bombing was not the first of these horrible murders, or the most deadly. A little over a month later another terrorist attack, this time in the United States captured the world's attention, and the United States became actively involved in the war against terror.

After 9/11 for the first time in its history, the US treated a terror attack in Israel as n act of war against civil society in the entire world (at least until the Republicans lost congress in 2006 when things began to revert).

After election day 2008 under the leadership of new President Barack Obama the US seemed to revert back to the pre-9/11 mentality. This country stopped fighting the war against fanatical Islamists, at least the stopped fighting to win. Twelve years after Sbarros, and almost 12 years after 9/11/11 it seems the Islamists have the United States on the run.

This President does all he can to force Israel to make one-sided concessions to "moderates" in Fatah who continue in their refusal to recognize Israel as a Jewish State. Via his secretary of state Obama does all he can to force Israel to make one-sided concessions to a Fatah who still promotes mass-murderers like the one who blew up a Sbarros pizza place in Jerusalem as heroes.



Islamist hatred is fed with dollars and euros. They continue to close their eyes to the fact that the "Palestinian problem" is all about the Western World, funding a people who are being taught by their leaders that blowing up innocent men, women and children having a slice of pizza, is a heroic act.

Until the world recognizes the fruits of their appeasement, horrors like the Sbarro bombing will continue to happen in Israel, Europe, the US and elsewhere throughout the world.