Daily news sites

Click to enlarge.

Although we've been in ZIRP for more than 4 years so far, conventional wisdom now believes that we're in a long-term rising interest rate environment (and not just a cyclical short-term one). I am repeatedly told this by nearly every financial "expert" on CNBC. Call me skeptical.

I could be a believer if someone could convince me that disposable personal income will grow faster than the money supply well into the distant future. I'm not going to be easy to convince though. I've embraced the "the death of real yields" story for roughly a decade so far. The following sentence sums up that belief.


As seen in the chart, it appears that monetary policy is "tight" again. As of 8/19/13, interest rates are well above "normal" again. I believe that Ben Bernanke will someday regret the day he uttered the word "taper" in public. That's assuming he doesn't already regret it of course. There's certainly been a "whole lotta" back-pedaling since it was uttered.



And lastly, there are a "whole lotta rosy" outlooks regarding where this economy is headed long-term. I have but one thing to say. Shun the nonbeliever!

Three More Years of Goldilocks? - Larry Kudlow, November 21, 2007

Just opinions! This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Rugged Individualism And A Free America
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
***************

"Rugged individualism" is recognized today as some sort of mental illness in 21st century America.

Look. I am not a "togetherness" type personality.  I was reared by parents who insisted that I learn to fend for myself at an early age.  I was given my emancipation from my parents (by my parents) at what is thought of today as the "tender age" of sixteen.  I'll never forget that day.

We had a family conference on the back porch of our little country house.  Corn and sugar cane grew right up to the edge of the lawn.  In the distance one could hear the grunting of the hogs and in the near distance the clucking of the chickens happily pecking small grains of sand from the loose soil to aid in the efficiency of their gizzards.  It was the sound of breakfast being produced!

It was, for this ole country boy, the ideal setting to be told that today you are free ... free to carry responsibility for yourself... for myself.  I would make my own decisions with input from my parents only upon request.  It meant, also, that I would bear the consequences of decisions made with little or no experience on the matter being decided upon.

Frightening?  Damned right, it was!  Did I make mistakes?  You'd better believe I did, lots of them, and every single one a learning experience.  I carry many scars from those early mistakes -- my gray hair not the least of those reminders.  Many of those scars are still red, ugly, and extremely tender -- even today.

But -- I LEARNED!

Ultimately, I learned that in the end, everyone is accountable to themselves and responsible to (and for) themselves for the host of so-called "screw-ups" we all make.

As a teenager, I learned to choose my friends and associates wisely.  I didn't have a posse and I didn't become a part of anyone else's posse, either. 

My best friend from those teen years -- is still my best friend to this day.  We were then, and remain today, independent thinkers.  We often disagree with each other. And that's fine. Our friendship transcends disagreement.   Besides, it seems to me, friends OUGHT to allow independent thinking amongst them.

I learned that one should not allow oneself to be overly influenced by what others say and do. It's OK to look and listen and evaluate.  But in the end, one has the responsibility to form his or her own opinion and be ready, willing, and able to defend that position when, and if, it becomes necessary.

As you can see, nothing I learned is earthshaking or even worthy of note -- except -- that I learned them at an unusually early age.  Well, not so unusual for my generation, but simply unheard of in today's society.

That early emancipation created an "individualist."  We are better known today as "weirdos" or worse.

There was a time in America when individualists were prized.  No longer. 

Today in a communist leaning America, an individualist is an impediment to the so-called "greater good."  See, we have a way of saying things like: "Wait a minute!"  "Whoa!"  "Not so cussed fast!"  And the MOST dreaded -- "Let's think about this for a moment."

With our Neo-Leninist/Communist President herding America from one manufactured crisis to another in order to keep the populace off balance, off kilter, and vulnerable to frightening scenarios designed to elicit support for his communist agenda for America, the LAST thing Obama needs is for some NUT JOB, like yours truly, to insist that we "wait a minute," "think about this for a moment," or some such objection.  The very last thing Obama and his henchman need is for Americans to take time to actually THINK about what is going on in America today.

America was founded on and by individualism.Though in modern America you won't find much individualism expressed, at all.

"America was built on the social-political ideals of Individualism; the philosophy of self-reliance, in the face of peril, and in the name of  freedom. Our communities were forged by rugged personalities, adventurers and entrepreneurs, determined to secure their freedoms in a new land, far from the archaic ideas of statism that were popular throughout Europe. Indeed the Virginia Company of London, which founded Jamestown in 1607, the first permanent new-world English settlement, was an entirely entrepreneurial venture." SOURCE:  http://www.nationofchange.org/essentiality-individualism-modern-america-1354804096

That which is now described as the "soft despotism" of the American political left has driven America into a sort of collectivism.  Wholly un-American, it is the new or "NEO-Leninist/communism" we referenced earlier.  And it is smothering America and driving her into third world country status at an alarming speed.

In an article at The American Thinker, Daren Jonescu states the following:  "The fundamental battle to be waged concerns nothing less than the nature of man, and the moral implications of that nature.  If public disapproval of particular Obama policies is to become a lasting movement toward societal renewal, then the conservative's primary objective must be the restoration of American individualism." SOURCE:  http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/03/on_restoring_american_individualism.html#ixzz2brz3AVsB

 Mr. Jonescu continues:  "Those who wish to subvert the American republic, and to undermine its founding documents, have always understood that the primary obstacle is ethical individualism."  SOURCE:   http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/03/on_restoring_american_individualism.html#ixzz2bs0z5mwY

Look.  All the talk about reclaiming America, about restoring America, is all for naught -- IF we do not restore individualism FIRST.  To be honest with you -- I don't know how we can do that.  It takes generations to produce self reliant individualists.  Besides, I don't think America likes individualist anymore. 

From individualist to globalist Americans have forsaken that which made them -- and then made them great. 

Our ship of state now sails toward the rocky shoals with the white flag of surrender snapping from her mainmast.  The remains of her sun whitened carcass will lie scattered on the rocks as a warning to other nations not to stir the course America chose.   But, alas, if history is any predictor of the future, that warning will go unheeded.

© J. D. Longstreet

The following chart shows the total number of hours worked per week by all production and nonsupervisory retail trade employees divided by the population.


Click to enlarge.

First off, how about that parabola? I can just feel the employment growth about to pick up in the last half of this decade. No doubt about it.

If history is any indicator, then it is probably best not to swing for the fences when we're at the top of the channel. Note that we *are* already back to the top of the channel. Where does the time go? Perhaps it doesn't feel like we're near the top because the top has come down to meet us? Behold the power of upside down parabolas.

1973? Bad!
1989? Bad!
2000? Bad!
2007? Bad!

2013? Bad? Maybe?

Just a thought! Then again, perhaps it is different this time. How else can we explain the rise from 666 on the S&P 500 in 2009 to 1656 today? It must be different! Permanent prosperity has been achieved and *all* risk has been eliminated! No more recessions! Puzzle finally solved! Hurray!

BLS: Occupational Outlook Handbook: Retail Sales Workers


In my opinion (heavily based on the declining trend in the chart above), the only way we're going to make that 17% employment growth target is if each employee works fewer hours *and* we don't have a recession before 2020. Keep in mind that our population has only grown 9% over the past decade.

Well, there is one other way we could hit the 17% target I suppose. In 2020, we could make first contact with an alien race whose sole motivation is to purchase personal care products at our malls. Why the malls? Chances are the aliens would not have credit cards to make online purchases. They'd therefore probably start off selling their advanced technology in exchange for our paper dollars! So pull out those shovels and start digging up that hoarded paper from your backyards before the next person does!

Forehead. Desk. Whack. Whack. Whack.

This is not investment advice.

See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer
Trend Line Disclaimer

Source Data:
BLS: Employment Database
St. Louis Fed: Population

Consider The Source
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
************************

The Mainstream Media’s assault on evangelical Christian Conservatives is going to backfire on them. Some feel it has already begun.  Consider the number of major news outlets in financial trouble today.

First of all, it is wise to understand that the mainstream media in the US is the voice of the Democratic Party .... the propaganda wing of the Democratic Party, if you will.    You must keep that in mind to be able to interpret what they disseminate as “news.” 

The MSM is out of touch with real Americans, especially real Americans who subscribe to the Christian faith… and to parse it even more… real Americans who subscribe to the evangelical brand of the Christian faith.  This disconnect has existed for decades now.  And yet, the MsM continues to flail about either not recognizing the problem, or intentionally ignoring it - even to their own detriment.

If the MsM had even the least understanding of the Christian faith, especially the Evangelical Christian faith, they would know that perfection is not required to be a Christian.  Making the attempt IS required, however.

The one tenant of the evangelical Christian faith that runs through their faith, as a binding thread, is that piece of scripture that says:  “For ALL have sinned and fallen short ….”  It is the commonality of ALL Christians. All Christians were sinners before becoming Christians and, guess what… they remain sinners afterwards!  The difference is “forgiveness” of those sins, AND, the sinner’s never-ending quest to live a life as nearly in accordance to the teachings of Christ as a human being, with all the frailties of humanity, can ever hope for.

The hallmark of the evangelical Christian is their ability to instantly forgive the transgressions of others upon the transgressor recognizing his/her sins, confessing them, and seeking forgiveness.  The arms of the evangelical church are flung wide open to accept, support, and even nurture those fellow “imperfect” Christians who have “fallen short”.  It is a hallmark of the faith.  To condemn the transgressor as somehow, worse than the rest of us Christians, is nothing short of hypocrisy… and hypocrisy is frowned upon as an arch sin, if there were, indeed, such a thing.

But you see, the Leftists and the MsM, which of course, is one and the same thing, have bought into their Hollywood version of Evangelical Christianity and they have come to actually believe their version is the true version.  It, apparently, has never crossed their minds that they could be wrong!  On a scale of one to ten, with ten being the worse degree of “wrongness”, then the MsM and the Democratic Party would be stuck on ten!

There is nothing quite so amusing as to watch the finger pointing of the left as it tries, vainly, to justify it’s own short comings by pointing to the short comings of others.  They have honed it into a fine art. Having done so, they are totally unaware that it portrays them as kindergarten children seeking the acceptance of the adult in charge. But, finding an adult amongst the leftists is a near impossible task.  They are few and far between.  The end result is the increasing degree of pathos on the left.  They have become, absolutely, pathetic.

The Left, meaning the Democratic Party, and, of course, the Mainstream Media, have all made a devastating error in judgment by assaulting Christian conservatives. For in doing so, they have assured their own elitism, locked-in their self-perceived perfection, and validated what all us “bumpkins” out here in flyover country already knew… and that is… there are none quite so fallible as those who perceive themselves infallible.

So, we leave the MSM on the sidelines of this life to sneer and point fingers and catcall in the vain hope of drawing our attention away from their mistake riddled, pitiful existence, as morality judges.  They have become so captivated by their passion, that in their zeal they have forgotten their very own mantra: “Do Not Judge”! 

The scriptures teach us to “Judge not, lest ye be judged”.  The Great Teacher, Himself, the Rabbi, the Christ, also told us “Ye shall know a tree by the fruit it bears.”  In other words, “recognizing by simple observation” is NOT judging.  Therefore, this humble scribe, in order to cover his bases, asks your forgiveness for observing that the MsM is, once again, acting as the elitist hypocrites we already know them to be. That is, of course, a simple observation on my part. That said… alas, we must forgive them, too.

© J. D. Longstreet

Consider The Source
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
************************

The Mainstream Media’s assault on evangelical Christian Conservatives is going to backfire on them. Some feel it has already begun.  Consider the number of major news outlets in financial trouble today.

First of all, it is wise to understand that the mainstream media in the US is the voice of the Democratic Party .... the propaganda wing of the Democratic Party, if you will.    You must keep that in mind to be able to interpret what they disseminate as “news.” 

The MSM is out of touch with real Americans, especially real Americans who subscribe to the Christian faith… and to parse it even more… real Americans who subscribe to the evangelical brand of the Christian faith.  This disconnect has existed for decades now.  And yet, the MsM continues to flail about either not recognizing the problem, or intentionally ignoring it - even to their own detriment.

If the MsM had even the least understanding of the Christian faith, especially the Evangelical Christian faith, they would know that perfection is not required to be a Christian.  Making the attempt IS required, however.

The one tenant of the evangelical Christian faith that runs through their faith, as a binding thread, is that piece of scripture that says:  “For ALL have sinned and fallen short ….”  It is the commonality of ALL Christians. All Christians were sinners before becoming Christians and, guess what… they remain sinners afterwards!  The difference is “forgiveness” of those sins, AND, the sinner’s never-ending quest to live a life as nearly in accordance to the teachings of Christ as a human being, with all the frailties of humanity, can ever hope for.

The hallmark of the evangelical Christian is their ability to instantly forgive the transgressions of others upon the transgressor recognizing his/her sins, confessing them, and seeking forgiveness.  The arms of the evangelical church are flung wide open to accept, support, and even nurture those fellow “imperfect” Christians who have “fallen short”.  It is a hallmark of the faith.  To condemn the transgressor as somehow, worse than the rest of us Christians, is nothing short of hypocrisy… and hypocrisy is frowned upon as an arch sin, if there were, indeed, such a thing.

But you see, the Leftists and the MsM, which of course, is one and the same thing, have bought into their Hollywood version of Evangelical Christianity and they have come to actually believe their version is the true version.  It, apparently, has never crossed their minds that they could be wrong!  On a scale of one to ten, with ten being the worse degree of “wrongness”, then the MsM and the Democratic Party would be stuck on ten!

There is nothing quite so amusing as to watch the finger pointing of the left as it tries, vainly, to justify it’s own short comings by pointing to the short comings of others.  They have honed it into a fine art. Having done so, they are totally unaware that it portrays them as kindergarten children seeking the acceptance of the adult in charge. But, finding an adult amongst the leftists is a near impossible task.  They are few and far between.  The end result is the increasing degree of pathos on the left.  They have become, absolutely, pathetic.

The Left, meaning the Democratic Party, and, of course, the Mainstream Media, have all made a devastating error in judgment by assaulting Christian conservatives. For in doing so, they have assured their own elitism, locked-in their self-perceived perfection, and validated what all us “bumpkins” out here in flyover country already knew… and that is… there are none quite so fallible as those who perceive themselves infallible.

So, we leave the MSM on the sidelines of this life to sneer and point fingers and catcall in the vain hope of drawing our attention away from their mistake riddled, pitiful existence, as morality judges.  They have become so captivated by their passion, that in their zeal they have forgotten their very own mantra: “Do Not Judge”! 

The scriptures teach us to “Judge not, lest ye be judged”.  The Great Teacher, Himself, the Rabbi, the Christ, also told us “Ye shall know a tree by the fruit it bears.”  In other words, “recognizing by simple observation” is NOT judging.  Therefore, this humble scribe, in order to cover his bases, asks your forgiveness for observing that the MsM is, once again, acting as the elitist hypocrites we already know them to be. That is, of course, a simple observation on my part. That said… alas, we must forgive them, too.

© J. D. Longstreet
***********************

VISIT J. D. Longstreet's "INSIGHT on Freedom" Face Book Page!!:   (Just click on the link for more conservative commentary by J. D. Longstreet and other popular conservative writers!) **************************************************Hypersmash.com

Ignacio (last name unknown)

Click to enlarge.

Surely we can get this to 6% if we give it one more shot! Just throw the whole kitchen sink at it Ben! For the love of all that is holy, do not taper! We need it all!

It peaked at 5.951% in November of 2000. Good times.

It peaked at 5.950% in May of 2007. What a party.

In July of 2013, it reached 5.872%. So close! At the rate it's climbing, it's practically a "sure thing" to breach 6% by June of 2014, although a new record could be set as early as February. There's only one Christmas season left between us and the ultimate goal! With nearly 19 million jobs at stake, what could possibly go wrong (again)?

There's nothing magical about the 6% barrier of course, other than the fact that we've failed to go through it twice so far. Maybe the third time's the charm? Or maybe it isn't? Who knows?

And as for 6%, I wake up every day thinking that for every 16 humans or so that I know (including babies and the elderly), at least one needs to be a professional & business services employee (accountant, lawyer, janitor, landscaper, groundskeeper, financial manager, office clerk, security guard, and so on). That's the only way our country can truly prosper. Never mind that we only needed about 1/3rd as many 60 years ago. Those were crazy times and not at all as prosperous as what we have now.

If we don't have very nice places for lawyers to do their lawyering and for financial managers to do their managerizing, then what will become of this great country of ours!

This is not investment advice.

See Also:
BLS: Industries at a Glance: Professional and Business Services

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Professional & Business Services Employees per Capita

Trend Forecast today: The Skirt(s)
In variations of shapes, colors and prints, these skirts are definitely a key piece in every closet and for all seasons. I'm looking forward to wear something like this in the Fall, paired with sweatshirts or sweaters but until then here are a few suggestions for this last month of Summer.
These colors are as a bag of jelly beans and I want them all!!
Happy Weekend!








                                                                                                Top: Roksanda Ilincic/ Here 

Click to enlarge.

If you are an optimist, I bet you were hoping that the parabola would be right side up. No such luck.

Should the 2nd order polynomial trend continue to its logical conclusion, then say goodbye to 1 million health and personal care store employees someday. Sigh.

Mall Rat Rap


Sorry, just a bit of e-commerce and monetary policy gallows humor, in very poor taste I might add.

This is not investment advice, but damn.

This post inspired by the following comment (as seen here).

I think "hanging out" and "being seen" account for a good deal of mall traffic. - Luke Smith

See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Two issues barely addressed by immigration reform activists, clergy, non-profit organizations, U.S. Congress and the Obama administration are the deportation of 800 ill patients by hospitals and U.S. Veterans.

El Paso, Texas - On Wednesday, Sandra Ávila Beltrán, 52, aka, "Pacific Drug Cartel Queen" was transferred from a South Louisiana Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention center to an El Paso ICE removal center for deportation. She is expected to be deported by next Tuesday or Thursday. Ávila Beltrán will be flown from Texas to Mexico City along with more than 130 other undocumented immigrants ordered to be removed from the U.S. under a program that discontinued turning them over to Mexican immigration authorities across the border from El Paso.

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

Julian Assange may very well be correct. However, his recent statement that "The only hope as far as electoral politics… presently, is the libertarian section of the Republican party,..." will undoubtedly displease the liberal progressives democratic party as well as the the republican party, perhaps especially the RINO's and the militaristic MIC wing of the GOP. Which of course gives one EVERY rational reason to believe Assange is absolutely RIGHT.

Campus Reform - “The only hope as far as electoral politics… presently, is the libertarian section of the Republican party,” said Assange, in response to a question about the recent swell of college-aged and youth-based support for libertarianism.

“The libertarian aspect of the Republican Party is presently the only useful political voice really in the U.S. Congress,” said Assange. “[I] am a big admirer of Ron Paul and Rand Paul for their very principled positions in the U.S. Congress on a number of issues.”

Assange, who was speaking in an online video forum, hosted by the transparency organization OurSay.org, also praised American Journalist Matt Drudge saying he is responsible for breaking down the “self-censorship” of the American mainstream media.

"Matt Drudge is a news media innovator... It is as a result of the self-censorship of the establishment press in the United States that gave Matt Drudge such a platform and so of course he should be applauded for breaking a lot of that censorship,” said Assange.

Assange is refreshing in his honesty and understanding of the fatal flaw present in not only the American political landscape but the politics of nations in the universal sense.

The story's completion.

Via: Memeorandum

August 16, 2013
Amazon’s Secret Plan to Sell You Everything!


Have I mentioned lately that we live in the era of exponential trend failures?

Bill Melendez

Click to enlarge.




See Also:
When "Sure Things" Break (Musical Tribute)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Click to enlarge.

Some trends are just not what they appear to be.



See Also:
Gold vs. Crude Foodstuffs & Feedstuffs

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

In theory, how far could gold drop in price relative to the basic necessity of food?

In the following chart, I'm adjusting the price of gold for inflation but instead of using the CPI I'm using the producer price index for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs (which has doubled since 2000).


Click to enlarge.

It appears to me that gold could drop quite a bit more (relative to crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs). The exponential trend in blue has failed and the median is a long ways away. That doesn't mean that gold will drop of course. I'm simply saying that it could.

How to Live on a Deserted Island


Note that there is no mention of borrowing money to buy gold.

Monex: How to Buy Gold


I love the term "exclusive" to describe the account. Who would Monex exclude? Investors who would fold under the massive weight of a margin call?

As of 2006, I no longer own gold nor do I have any desire to buy it back at these prices (relative to the price of toilet paper anyway). That said, I figure it never hurts to buy a few extra large bags of rice at Costco though. Things happen.

In my opinion, we've replaced risk-free investments with risky free lunch investments. I'm not referring to gold specifically. I'm referring to the entire system. For example, here's another exponential trend failure. Check out dividends compared to crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs. Kind of ominous don't you think? That one definitely requires its own post. Coming soon to a blog near you! (Well, within 24 hours more than likely anyway.)

There is no safe store of value. - Alan Greenspan (1966)

We live in an era of epic exponential trend failures. Be careful out there. This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart