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What I love about September


What I love about September...









Hello September!!
A new month, a NEW reason to look forward to. I'm sure I'm not the only one feeling this way, right?
Here is my wish list:

TO GO:
New York Fashion Week is just around the corner and I'm very excited to head in the The Big Apple tomorrow as a Community Corespondent for Polyvore.

TO WEAR:
Shades of bloody red on almost everything ( I predict a lot of monochrome outfits this season).

TO BUY:
Every season I try to update my closet with a few essential pieces. Now I 'm focused on colored and printed jackets/ coats/. (And some bitter colors heels :)

TO ENJOY:
Last but not least I want to walk through colored falling leaves in my favorite places...

I hope you all enjoy this beautiful season!
Thank you for your visit.




                                                                                               Burgundy everything:

                                                                  Sweaters: Miu Miu & Proenza Schouler/ option Here and Here
                                                                  Pants: Tory Burch/ Here
                                                                  Skirt: The Row/ option Here
                                                                  Hat: Otte Alexis/ Here and Here
                                                                  Gloves: French Connection/ option Here
                                                                  Makeup: Lipstick NYX Here , Nail lacquer: Tom Ford/ Here , Eye Brow: NYX/ Here



                                                                                             Paste Coloured & Printed Coats:

                                                         
                                                                  Pastel coat: Max Mara/ option Here 
                                                                  Check coat: Ganni Mother of Pearl/ Here and option Here 
                                                                  Animal print jacket: Topshop/ Here

                                               
                                                                                              Bitter -Colours Shoes:



                                                                  Slipers: Zara/ option  Here
                                                                  Blue Heels: Sergio Rossi/ Here
                                                                  Burgundy Heels: Sam Edelman/ Here















War On Terror LOST ... J. D. Longstreet

War On Terror LOST   ...   J. D. Longstreet
War On Terror LOST
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet

*****************************

America has lost the War on Terror.

I can hear the exclamations now: "Whoa!  Wait a cussed minute, Longstreet!"  How EVER did you come up with that idea, huh?"

It's not exactly an Idea.  It's more like a fact.   In fact, it IS a FACT!

All America has accomplished, so far, anyway, is to "wall" ourselves in. Heck, we have barely scratched the enemy, the terrorists.  Each week, or so, we take out a few desert dwelling bomb-makers and terrorists out in the wilderness of the Middle East with Hellfire missiles from a circling drone, pat ourselves on the back, and then go right back to monitoring the phone calls, and email of American citizens.

The average American citizen has had far more freedom taken from him, denied him, refused him, since the so-called War on Terror was declared than any of the countries aiding and abetting the terrorists themselves.

In the dozen years since 9-11-01, America has become a police state, a surveillance state, a state in which citizens are as surely caged in as any criminal in any prison in the country.

All the "walls" America has built, electronic and otherwise, intended to keep the terrorist out have the equal and opposite reaction of keeping Americans in! Each of the new national security laws forces American citizens to give up more and more of our freedom and liberty in exchange for promised security.

It strikes me that national security laws are in many ways akin to gun control laws.  They limit the freedom of the citizen but do next to nothing to deter crime or terrorism.  Summed up, it is the American citizen being shafted - not the terrorist.

Look.  All governments seek power and then MORE power.  It is what they do.  It is the nature of the beast.  Anything that will assist them in accruing more power is sought after continuously and vigorously.

The citizens of any country are most at risk when their country is under threat of war.  Sadly, those citizens are equally at risk from the enemy AND from their own government.

The at risk citizen's government quickly learns that fear of a looming threat knocks down all sorts of walls erected to hold a government at bay and protect the freedom of citizens.  Oft times they will embellish and inflate the threat to create a sense of fear and a longing for security which they can then use and manipulate to expand the power of government.  That power will outlast the threat and eventually become a part of the so-called "New Normal."  We have seen it -- right here in the United States -- since 9-11-01.

Ted Koppel, in a piece he wrote for the Wall Street Journal in August, said the following:  "Terrorism, after all, is designed to produce overreaction. It is the means by which the weak induce the powerful to inflict damage upon themselves—and al Qaeda and groups like it are surely counting on that as the centerpiece of their strategy."  SOURCE:  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324653004578650462392053732.html

Our beloved constitution has been steamrolled in the name of national security.  Law abiding citizens are monitored by the government 24/7.  For the first time in our lives, and in the life of the country, we have a sense that Big Brother is hovering, just over our shoulder, watching and listening to everything we say and do.  As we now know, the feeling was/is correct.

Terrorists live to create mayhem, mischief, and discord within their enemy's camp.  They have been wildly successful in doing just that in the camp we call America.  They have met with success in their efforts while we are in a state of denial seeking more and more security provided by the federal government.  The federal government could not be happier!

The terrorists have clearly won.

Americans have surrendered our most precious freedoms in the name of fighting terrorism.  In the past decade we have called for -- and gotten -- some of the most anti-freedom and anti-liberty laws in the history of America.

I'm not alone in my assessment of America's defeat in the War on Terror.  Consider the following:  "And the terrorists have won. If a primary purpose of terrorism is to induce fear, and Americans are willing to give up their most precious freedoms in the name of fighting terrorism, how is this anything less than a monumental victory for our enemies?"  SOURCE:  http://dailycaller.com/2011/12/02/the-terrorists-have-won/#ixzz2dZKTrIqs

Freedom, once lost, is almost impossible to regain. I didn't say that.  One of our Founding Fathers (and later President) , John Adams, said that!  The freedom and liberties we are giving up today in the name of security are, for all intents and purposes, gone forever.

It has long been thought that the demise of America would be at her own hand.  By voluntarily giving up freedom, some dating  to the Magna Carta, Americans are making certain that a new America is aborning.  It is not an America your father, nor your grandfather would recognize.  Alas, it will not be included among the "free" nations of the world.

© J. D. Longstreet  

The Sure Wild Thing!


Click to enlarge.



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The Year 2092


Click to enlarge.

Assuming that the Fed has permanently put a stop to all future recessions and recent trends can therefore remain in place, then 2092 is looking to be quite the year! That's when residential construction employment per capita will have made a full recovery!

I'm only bringing it up because, as seen in the following link, party hats are still in such short supply! Reserve yours early!

September 1, 2013
America resilient 5 years after worst GDP loss since ’30s

The signs of resilience are everywhere: Households continue to spend. Businesses are investing and hiring. Home sales are rebounding, and the automobile industry is surging. Banks have healthier balance sheets, and credit is easing. All this coincides with the economy shedding the excesses of the past, such as unmanageable levels of consumer and corporate debt.

Sales are "surging" as we shed the excesses of the past! And credit is easing so we can borrow even more! Hurray!

“We are in a much better place than we were five years ago,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pa. “Consumers are feeling much, much better; certainly investors are.”

It is Mark Zandi's vast knowledge of the inner workings of our economy that I admire most. Take his decision to purchase Florida real estate near the peak. Genius! What a relief it must be to him, both as a consumer and as an investor, to directly participate in one of the healthiest and most robust dead cat bounces in all of recorded history! Is it any wonder he's filled with such optimism?


Click to enlarge.

See Also:
When "Sure Things" Break Part II (Musical Tribute)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Residential Construction Employees per Capita
St. Louis Fed: Florida House Price Index / CPI

you must read lonny

I'm interrupting this holiday weekend to tell you that you must read the September issue of Lonny. It is so good. Extra good. Crazy good.

Jonathan Adler




Like I said, crazy good. I've read it twice already and probably will pour over it once more before the day is thru. Go over to Lonny and check it out.

Carry on.

Stock Market Risk


Click to enlarge.

As seen in the chart, the unsustainable exponential growth party ended in the first quarter of 2000. In my opinion, those who think our problems all started during the Great Recession are therefore quite mistaken.

Welcome to the new normal! It involves all kinds of exponential trend failures!

Since 2000, we've revisited the median twice. Let's hope we don't revisit the realistic worst case (as seen in the 1950s and 1970s). I say realistic worst case in that historical perspective rear view mirror looking way. Should you be looking out the front window, your realistic worst case may vary!

For what it is worth, I've been permanently bearish since 2004. As a retiree, I no longer have any desire to swing for the fences. I just don't think this economy can support sustainable fence swinging any longer, not that it ever really could. As seen in the chart, the 1980s and 1990s were just an unsustainable exponential growth illusion of prosperity. Those expecting to go back to that era are far more optimistic than I could ever be (especially from these already elevated levels).

This is not investment advice.

See Also:
Stock Market Analysis - The Bearish Case

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Auto Sales vs. Miles Traveled


Click to enlarge.

Oh, yeah. Totally sustainable.

See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The Constitutional Argument...

The Constitutional Argument...
by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny


Confronted with a series of wrenching choices over Syria, Obama chose the course that best reflects fidelity to the Constitution as written. Hopefully, in the days ahead, taking that less traveled road by presidents will make all the difference. Walter Shapiro,Yahoo News

President Obama, looking beyond the partisan arguments, in the final analysis made the right decision based on the letter of the Constitution he is sworn to uphold.

Article One, Section Eight of the Constitution reads as follows: "The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defense and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;

To borrow Money on the credit of the United States;

To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several states, and with the Indian Tribes;

To establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization, and uniform Laws on the subject of Bankruptcies throughout the United States;

To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;

To provide for the Punishment of counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States;

To establish Post Offices and post Roads;

To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries;

To constitute Tribunals inferior to the supreme Court;

To define and punish Piracies and Felonies committed on the high Seas, and Offences against the Law of Nations;

To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;

To raise and support Armies, but no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two Years;

To provide and maintain a Navy;

To make Rules for the Government and Regulation of the land and naval Forces;

To provide for calling forth the Militia to execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions;

To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining, the Militia, and for governing such Part of them as may be employed in the Service of the United States, reserving to the States respectively, the Appointment of the Officers, and the Authority of training the Militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress;

To exercise exclusive Legislation in all Cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten Miles square) as may, by Cession of particular States, and the Acceptance of Congress, become the Seat of the Government of the United States, and to exercise like Authority over all Places purchased by the Consent of the Legislature of the State in which the Same shall be, for the Erection of Forts, Magazines, Arsenals, dock-Yards, and other needful Buildings; —And

To make all Laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into Execution the foregoing Powers, and all other Powers vested by this Constitution in the Government of the United States, or in any Department or Officer thereof."

Credit to the President, after initially using the "Bully Pulpit" to make what I consider an erroneous case for military strikes against Syria he found the good sense to place the decision where it rightly belongs. With the Congress of the United Sates of America.

Read the full article HERE.

Via: Memeorandum

Willie G Signs 2010 Trike For Couple From Wisconsin

Photos: HNG/HNNUSA

Willie G took a momet to sign a Yellow H-D trike after this year's custom show at the Harley-Davidson Muesum during the 110th Harley's Anniversary. 

By H. Nelson Goodson
September 1, 2013

Milwaukee, WI - On Sunday, Willie G took some time to sign the froont of a Yellow H-D 2010 trike at the Milwaukee Harley-Davison Museum during Harley's 110 Anniversary. Randy, one of the owners of the Yellow trike says, his other Orange 2011 trike got second place this year and Willie G placed his signature in the rear trunk last year.


Lei Xiao, 35, from Beijing, China built his 2013 custom motorcycle and imported it to the U.S. to exhibit it in the custom show at the H-D Museum on Sunday. The Chinese custom bike was a popular attraction at the event.

 
On Sunday, H. Nelson Goodson, Carmelo Iglesias and Joselito Velez at the Juneau and Water block bash during the 110th H-D Anniversary weekend. Goodson and Joselito are co-founders of the Milwaukee Independent Riders in Wisconsin.

Milwaukee Police Officer Jesus Gloria

Rebecca Kveen and Kraig Kveen at the H-D biker Juneau block party bash

Quamire, Bobby Martinez and Ric Alva

Venessa Placencia and Eddie Alva

Bikers and their ladies enjoying the H-D 110th Anniversary.

Tito Rivera, founder of the Independent Riders in Tallahassee, Florida and Marta Bianchinni


Willie G at H-D Museum on Canal


H. Nelson Goodson and Milwaukee Police Sgt. Colón riding his department issued H-D motorcycle


Posing are Andi, Alfredo Dominguez (U.S.), Iwan, Noni, Dewo, Indra and H. Nelson Goodson (U.S.) from Indonesia. Eleven members of the Silver Hawk motorcycle club were at the 110th H-D bash. They represent six countries.


Alfredo Dominguez, Trisha Mattock, Jay Mattock and Jennifer Dominguez at the Milwaukee Street H-D block party


Three Purple Heart recipient U.S. Army Veteran Dario Scarlotti, H. Nelson Goodson, J.P. Marchan and Marisela Marchan

H. Nelson Goodson, Ray and Andres Orozco at the S. 60th and Layton 110th H-D Anniversary block party
Odette Martinez and Marla Gonis posed for a photo during the H-D bash


Ghost Spotted At The 110th Harley-Davidson Anniversary

Dario Scarlotti proudly showed his three Purple Heart patches on his biker vest.

Photo: HNG/HNNUSA

U.S. Army Veteran who earned three Purple Hearts spotted at the Milwaukee Harley-Davidson dealership 24 hours party location. 

By H. Nelson Goodson
September 1, 2013

Milw., WI - On Friday, Dario Scarlotti, 51, aka, "Ghost" of Hartland, WI, a U.S. Army Veteran who received three Purple Hearts in 1986, 1992, 2001 was taking part in the 110th H-D Anniversary celebrations. He served multiple tours and fought in Desert Storm, Kuwait, Gulf War and Afghanistan. Scarlotti says, a company was renamed Ghost in honor of the Veteran.
He served in the Army Special Forces and assigned as a covert marksman sniper during the wars. He said, that he went in to an undisclosed location, located the target, then made the kill and vanished without a trace gaining the alias "Ghost." Scarlotti didn't disclose how many targets were terminated during his career as a sniper in the Army.
Scarlotti proudly showed his three Purple Heart patches on his vest.
Scarlotti who speaks both English and Spanish says he is Puerto Rican and Sicilian. He is helping to direct parking for motorcycles at the Milwaukee Harley-Davidson dealership 24 hours party through September 2nd during the H-D 110 Anniversary at the Milwaukee Harley-Davidson, 11310 W. Silver Spring Rd.
The Amervets dot com has about 91 million registered listings for Purple Heart recipients.

GOLD finishes

3.1 Phillip Lim, animal print, bittersweet colours, I'alave shoes, Meredith Wendell, monochrome look, neon colors, personal style, street style, Tress Jewellery, vintage, Fall trends,

3.1 Phillip Lim, animal print, bittersweet colours, I'alave shoes, Meredith Wendell, monochrome look, neon colors, personal style, street style, Tress Jewellery, vintage, Fall trends,
3.1 Phillip Lim, animal print, bittersweet colours, I'alave shoes, Meredith Wendell, monochrome look, neon colors, personal style, street style, Tress Jewellery, vintage, Fall trends,
3.1 Phillip Lim, animal print, bittersweet colours, I'alave shoes, Meredith Wendell, monochrome look, neon colors, personal style, street style, Tress Jewellery, vintage, Fall trends,
3.1 Phillip Lim, animal print, bittersweet colours, I'alave shoes, Meredith Wendell, monochrome look, neon colors, personal style, street style, Tress Jewellery, vintage, Fall trends,
3.1 Phillip Lim, animal print, bittersweet colours, I'alave shoes, Meredith Wendell, monochrome look, neon colors, personal style, street style, Tress Jewellery, vintage, Fall trends,
3.1 Phillip Lim, animal print, bittersweet colours, I'alave shoes, Meredith Wendell, monochrome look, neon colors, personal style, street style, Tress Jewellery, vintage, Fall trends,
3.1 Phillip Lim, animal print, bittersweet colours, I'alave shoes, Meredith Wendell, monochrome look, neon colors, personal style, street style, Tress Jewellery, vintage, Fall trends,
3.1 Phillip Lim, animal print, bittersweet colours, I'alave shoes, Meredith Wendell, monochrome look, neon colors, personal style, street style, Tress Jewellery, vintage, Fall trends,
3.1 Phillip Lim, animal print, bittersweet colours, Fall trends, I'alave shoes, Meredith Wendell, monochrome look, neon colors, personal style, street style, Tress Jewellery, vintage,


Wild, wild things are happening here but everything is under control, I promise!
Center of attention? Those bright printed loafers that captivated me for a while and now I decided to "unleash" them. What a better way to make them "shine" then pairing them with 2 separates grey pieces that looks like one piece, a touch of neon and hints of gold jewelry ( I really love these creative pieces, gifted from my dear friend Alexandra).
Have a great Sunday everyone and thank you for stopping by!





                                                                                Shirt: vintage/ option Here 
                                                                                Shorts: 3.1 Phillip Lim/ Here and Here 
                                                                                Bag:c/o Meredith Wendell/  option Here and Here 
                                                                                Ring and necklace: thanks to Tres Jewellery/ Here and  Here 
                                                                 Sunglasses: Foster Grant/ option Here 
                                                                                Loafers: thanks to I'alave/ Here 





Milwaukee Police And Multi-Task Force Taking Photos Of Alleged Motorcycle Gangs, While In Covert Operation

Milwaukee police and a multi-task force along with feds were out conducting covert operations and surveillance on major alleged motorcycle gangs that came to the city in celebration of the 110th Harley-Davidson Anniversary.

By H. Nelson Goodson
September 1, 2013

Milwaukee, WI - So far since Wednesday, Milwaukee Police haven't been fully using its Intelligence Center publicly to profile, discriminate and kick people (Harley bikers) out of the Summerfest grounds for no wrong doing during the Harley-Davidson 110th Anniversary,  according to inside sources.
On August 23-25, police used its intelligence Center to actively profile and discriminate people, former, present and future Hispanic local gang members at Mexican Fiesta 2013. Those victims were unlawfully targeted without providing any prove. They were kicked out from Fiesta and banned for ever without just cause and no refunds were ever given.
Milwaukee Police, the Milwaukee County Sheriff's Department and feds were gathering more intelligence about he Hells Angels, Milwaukee Outlaws and other affiliated 1%'s considered outlaws or gangs associated with major criminal enterprises during the 110th H-D Anniversary, according to feds. 
On Saturday, the feds working along with a multi-police task force were out snapping photos of bikers at both the Milwaukee Street block party and Brady Street block party. Seven officers, including agents were spotted taking photos undected by crowds, three of them had high tech cameras while the other four backed them up. When spotted they quickly fled back into festival on Brady.


The Incredible Shrinking President ... J. D. Longstreet

The Incredible Shrinking President   ...   J. D. Longstreet
The Incredible Shrinking President
A Humiliating Debacle For America
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet

*****************

Well, Obama just finished off what little was left of America's credibility around the world.

As we have said so often before, he is the least qualified President we have ever had.  He just proved it.

No amount of excuses from the left will cover the fact that Obama blinked. Hell, he didn't just blink, he ran.  Putin and Assad must be bent double in laughter at Obama's high-stepping, backwards, away from a fight.

The national honor of the US has just suffered a tremendous blow.  We will pay for it for decades to come. 

I sincerely hope Bibi Netanyahu and the nation of Israel understand they are on their own with Iran.  Any influence Obama may have had in any kind of negotiations with Iran is totally gone. Now that Iran has seen just how serious a threat from this administration really is, they have zero fear and, I suspect, perceive this all as a green light for the go ahead to compete their nuclear program so they can attack Israel and the US with nuclear weapons as soon s possible. (When a US coastal city goes up in a mushroom cloud Americans will know where to place the blame.)

I hope the Israelis will take the bit firmly in their teeth now and go ahead and do what must be done to save the world from Iran.  It is clear there is no longer a US with the character, the intestinal fortitude, the guts, the cahones, to lead the world any longer.

It is fairly certain the Congress will NOT give Obama the OK to attack Syria.  Why? Well, it might be because some 80% of Americans don't want to attack Syria.  Most of us cannot define a single American interest in Syria.  Most of us understand there would be no victory in Syria.  And, frankly, many of us are tired of having our military used as some sort of political bludgeon.

And how must Secretary of State John Kerry feel now?  I mean, his boss just made a complete blithering fool of him before the entire world.  Does he resign?  Should he resign?  And he gave up a safe seat in the US Senate to become Obama's fool.  

In any event, Congress will not return to Washington for about another week.  Understand, nothing says thy must place a debate on military action against Syria at the top of their "to do" list.  You can bet the phone lines and the Capitol Hill switchboard  will be red hot as will their email inboxes.


In the meantime, a President the press is already trying to paint as the target of all sorts of humiliation, did not retire to the Oval Office to contemplate his next move to gain congressional approval for an attack on Syria. No.  He sped off to the golf course at Ft. Belvoir.  See, he is sure he WON'T get Congressional approval and with this move he can extract himself from the corner he painted himself into months ago with his over active mouth pronouncing "red line" markers.

It is extremely difficult for those of us on the right side of the political spectrum to believe that a president could deliberately make such wrong-headed decisions.  It is hard to wrap our minds around the possibility that a man could deliberately do what Obama has done to America.  And yet, there it is. He has taken America from the pinnacle to the gutter in four and a half years -- and played golf or was on vacation for a good portion of the time.

Can there be any doubt, any doubt at all, that under Obama's leadership America is headed down the same route as the city of Detroit?  When a nation's leader treats the nation as a banana republic, that nation will become a banana republic. 

I am shamed by the actions of my President today.  Shamed and humiliated.  I am also angry.  I'm angry that the electorate saw fit to give the man another four years to destroy the work it has taken some 238 years to build. 

Up to this past weekend, Americans had decades of work ahead of us repairing the damage Obama had already done.  After his cowardly actions of backing down from Assad and Putin, it will take at least a century to claw our way back. -- if we ever can.

© J. D. Longstreet

The Health of Our Service Economy

The following chart shows the ratio of service-providing employees to all non-farm employees.


Click to enlarge.

More than 86% now work in the service-providing industries! Hurray! Never healthier!

The next chart shows the year over year change in the total nominal amount we're collectively spending on services.


Click to enlarge.

There is still 2.5% growth!
Our service economy is therefore still healthy!
The present is still bright!
I still gotta wear shades!

I have mercifully spared you the pain and suffering of short-term and long-term trend lines. Oops. I probably should not have mentioned that. Sorry!

Hey, at least I didn't point out that the current 2.5% growth is almost entirely made up of smoke and mirrors inflation. That really won't add much to "real" services job growth from here if it continues. Oops. I did it again. Sorry!

I'm drawing the line. No amount of torture could make me confess what would happen to services employment if the growth rate in services continues to fall like it did as the dotcom bubble was popping or as the housing bubble was popping. @#$%! There's nothing I can say now to adequately express my remorse over implying the obvious. Shame on me!

I'm determined to end on an upbeat note though, so trust me on this. The future is still so bright! I gotta wear moonshades!

“I guess I just prefer to see the dark side of things. The glass is always half empty. And cracked. And I just cut my lip on it. And chipped a tooth.” - Janeane Garofalo

See Also:
Still Investing

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Service-Providing Employees / Total Nonfarm Employees
St. Louis Fed: Personal Consumption Expenditures: Services (YoY)