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If the prosperity of the 1980s and 1990s taught us one thing, it is that the key to long-term prosperity is simple. We need to increase total debt relative to wages at a rate not less than 2.7% per year but not more than 2.9% per year. Sustainability above all else!

So let's put our thinking caps on and decide how we're going to keep the prosperity trend alive. Will it be more debt, less wages, or both?

Despair.com: Illusions


See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Mary Burke

Ron Giguere

The Obama shutdown has forced the people of Lake Mead to move off of their rented land, to come out of their little cabins, and to go quietly into the night.

It is only Monday morning and I already feel behind. How is that for the start of the week? Aces. I hope your weekends were delightful though. And thanks so much for all of your comments on Fess Up Friday. I now have quite a shopping list started for myself.

Today I wanted to share a recent experience I had with the good folks at Lamps.com. As I've eluded to in crazy code like ways (I promise I'll divulge more soon) I've been working feverishly to get a laundry list of items done to our little cottage and addressing the light over our kitchen window has been on that list for a while.

Our old light was a bit large for that small window and those that are blessed with long, tall legs (I don't have this problem) would often knock their heads on it. Not the best memory for guests to leave with. So when the team at Lamps.com offered to have me try something out I screamed "sign me up!" Actually, I think I typed it, but you get the point.

The decision was not an easy one and I even started plotting all of the other places I could add pendants just so that I wouldn't have to choose just one. But after a lot of back and forth, I landed on this hot little number - the Feiss Brushed Steel Urban Renewal Mini Pendant.

Lamps.com

As soon as it arrived I ripped open the box to find it looked even better in person (wahoo) and I cleared the hubs schedule so he could put it up for me right away. He's such a good sport.


Everything was laid out and easy to follow and as someone who has ordered a lot of lights in her day, I was thrilled that we didn't have to make a trip to Home Depot for any parts. Everything was included - hallelujah!


And in no time flat, I had a new light. She is so light and pretty. I just love her.


Her shape is so sculptural and I think adds just the right amount of fun to my kitchen window. Now if only my view was of the ocean rather than my neighbors. One thing at a time I guess.


Sometimes the little details make the biggest difference.

Have you made any little changes around the house lately? Do you have a pretty view out of your kitchen window? Have any wish list lighting items?

J.B. Van Hollen

The following chart shows the annual growth in real output per hour of the nonfinancial corporations sector. I'm using the semiannual data to smooth it out a bit.


Click to enlarge.



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Nonfinancial Corporations Sector: Real Output Per Hour

October 6, 2013
Mish: Reader Question on Robots: What are People Supposed To Do For Their Livelihoods?


As seen in the following chart, those who asked right before the internet boom-bust are still asking the same question, and rightly so.


Click to enlarge.

So here we are. Unless it's different this time, there will be another advance of some kind that is highly likely to create jobs. I cannot say what or when.

What if it is different this time? I'm certainly a believer that it is. Then what? I was hoping Mish would have an answer for that. No such luck. I therefore offer the following answer to fill in the gap.

1. God will provide.
2. Free markets will provide.
3. Got cardboard box?

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Total nonfarm

Click to enlarge.


Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Housing Output / Farm Output

Yesterday little Noam Glick, age 9, was shot by a cowardly Muslim terrorist in the neck.  It has come to light that the would-be murderer was going to enter the home and destroy the whole family living there.  But instead he shot a child and ran.

The perpetrator of a suspected terror attack Saturday on a 9-year-old Israeli girl in the West Bank settlement of Psagot has likely escaped the area, the IDF said early Sunday. The search continued throughout the day, and Psagot residents were told they could return to their normal routine, after overnight fears that the attacker was still hiding out in the settlement.

The girl, Noam Glick, was injured Saturday night while playing in the yard outside her home. She said she was shot by a Palestinian gunman at very close range.

“I went outside, and Noam told us there was an Arab there,” the victim’s father, Yisrael Glick, told Army Radio on Sunday morning. “I understood this was a security situation, dangerous to our lives, the most frightening thing that can happen to a family — that a terrorist came into the house.”

He said that he heard gunshots and was able to pull his daughter into the house. The assailant fired “three shots” at her from point-blank range, he said. By the time he emerged from the house again with his weapon, he said, the attacker had fled.

Glick said that the attacker was “startled” by the girl playing in the yard, “so instead of entering the house he shot her.”

Doctors at Jerusalem’s Shaare Zedek medical center said the girl, who did not lose consciousness during the incident, had sustained light injuries and was in good condition. It was “not clear” whether she had been shot or stabbed, according to hospital physician Dr. Danny Fink.

“The girl’s survival is a miracle,” Fink told Maariv Sunday. The victim, who underwent surgery overnight, had a deep gash along the base of her neck and her upper chest area and was wounded in one ear, he said. She was slated for release Sunday afternoon.

According to Noam Glick’s account, the distance between her and the attacker was basically “zero,” Fink said. “The wound does not look like a gunshot,” he added, “but there were testimonies that said there were gunshots.”

Defense officials said they believed the incident was a terror attack, but were not ruling out other unspecified possibilities.

Authorities said a breach in the Psagot fence was discovered overnight, with signs of forced entry and footprints nearby.

Shortly after the incident, Israeli forces numbering in the hundreds entered the neighboring Palestinian town of al-Bireh, where the shooter was thought to have come from. Security forces, said to include troops from elite IDF units, began the search on the outskirts of the town, near a soccer stadium, and Palestinian security forces had been called in to clear the area.

The Palestinian Ma’an news agency reported two Palestinians were lightly injured by rubber bullets in an altercation with troops that erupted during the incursion.

Shortly after the Psagot attack, shots were reportedly fired at a motorcyclist on the road between Psagot and the nearby settlement of Kochav Ya’akov. No injuries were reported. A police official also said rocks were thrown at vehicles on the road leading into Psagot after the child was shot.

Psagot residents were told to stay in their homes past midnight Saturday; those with firearms were instructed to keep them by their side. Soldiers conducted a house-to-house search of the settlement. Residents were informed via text message to anticipate a knock on the door, to answer in Hebrew, and to await identification.

Early Sunday morning, after an overnight search, the authorities gave residents permission to resume their normal routine.

Saturday night’s incident came two weeks after an IDF soldier was killed while on duty in the West Bank city of Hebron by an unidentified shooter. The culprit remains at large despite investigations by Israeli authorities. Another soldier, off duty, was killed near the West Bank town of Qalqilya that same weekend.

SOURCE

Shoot a child and you are a hero to the Fakistinians.  To the rest of the world it is not a crime, not a sin to kill a Jewish child.  Only Fakistinians are victims.  All Jews, even a 9-year old child, is the aggressor.  Just because they are Jews.

Please keep Noam Glick and the Glick family in your prayers.

October 5, 2013
House passes retroactive pay as shutdown enters first weekend


We've gone from unpaid government shutdown to fully paid government vacation! Genius!



This is what I love most about Congress. They tackle the really tough problems and always come out on top.

By Findalis of Monkey in the Middle


What kind of an animal is capable of aligning his gun sight with the face of a friggin 9 year old girl and pulling the trigger?  Asks a reader of the Jerusalem Post.  I have no answer for this man.  Not when one realizes that the shooter was an Muslim.

A 9-year-old Israeli girl has been shot and seriously injured in Psagot, near Ramallah on Saturday night.

The IDF's Binyamin Division has entered the area with large forces to search for the gunman.

"We're attempting to establish whether this was a sniper or a terrorist who entered Psagot," a senior army source said.

The girl was evacuated from the scene in serious condition but conscious, to Shaare Tzedek Hospital in Jerusalem.

West Bank police said the girl had been playing in the yard of her house when she was hit by a shot to the upper body.

The spokesman for Psagot, David Tzviel, said that they know for a fact that the shooter infiltrated the settlement, and that the girl was not shot by a sniper. He said he based this on the testimony of the girl, who told rescue personnel that she saw the man who shot her enter her yard, come up onto the balcony and shoot her.

He added that the settlement is still on lock-down, and that residents have not been told they can leave their houses yet.

Tzviel said that an emergency siren was sounded in the settlement to alert residents of the danger, and that at the moment IDF troops and the settlement emergency response team are still searching for the shooter.

SOURCE

Only an animal shoots at children.  The reason the Arabs don't shoot at soldiers is that the soldiers shoot back, but children don't.

My prayers go out to this precious child (name is being withheld) and her family.  May she recover fully!

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Colombian national was kidnapped by Mexico City police and turned over to members of a criminal organization.

Eduardo Francisco Villatoro Cano and Edgar Waldiny Herrera Villatoro

The following chart shows employees working at used merchandise stores divided by all retail trade employees.


Click to enlarge.

The "sure thing" parabolic trend has been replaced with the "sure thing" exponential trend.

The future's so bright I gotta buy used rose-colored glasses.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment

The following chart shows the number of employees at tire dealers divided by annual vehicle miles traveled.


Click to enlarge.

Since the depths of the recession, we've been hiring more and more tire dealer employees. We're seeing no increase in total miles traveled though. Think that's going to be sustainable over the long-term?

If the trend channel in blue represents rising productivity, then what does the trend in red represent? Rose-colored glasses?

Malinvestment


Based on the chart above, malinvestment at tire dealers seems more than likely to me. Where else do you suppose it is appearing? Or did I just get lucky and think this one up in isolation?

Before you answer, I started with the premise that I would see malinvestment in tire dealers. I then went looking for malinvestment. Being able to include the "tired" pun was just a bonus.

It would not surprise me if this very same malinvestment theory could be applied to retail trade in general. For example, picture retail salespeople and mall traffic. I do not have easy access to reliable mall traffic though, so this chart will have to suffice for now.

Who really believes that malinvestment based growth is sustainable over the long-term? I sure as heck don't.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment
St. Louis Fed: Total Vehicle Miles Traveled

Anyone who has read this blog more than a handful of times might suspect I have tunnel vision when it comes to design (and good cocktails). And it is true, I do. I'm not holding back on you. There isn't some big other chunk of my life that I just don't share on here. Sure, I do other things with friends and family and there are large portions of my day that involve permission slips, lunch boxes, laundry and the rare date night that make life normal. But by and large, I voluntarily consume myself with design.

And that won't change. Not ever. Given a choice, I will always and forever spend money on something for my house rather than for myself (not including child needs of course).

But as I get busier with work, I would like to start to take a bit more time for myself and give myself a facial, moisturize or even possibly, hold on to your seat here, put on makeup. Crazy talk! I've never been much of a makeup girl, just some lipstick and mascara - and always good nail polish, but as mamma gets older she could use a little spruce.


So share with me. Teach me. What products do you use? Tell me what you love? What do you recommend? What do you wear everyday? How do you treat yourself? How many questions can I ask in one paragraph?

The kidnappers allegedly raped some of the victims multiple times and others were beaten while ransom was sought from families.

Obamacare Worse Than Prohibition
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
*******************

I am fully aware that most Americans today have no clue as to the damage one federal law brought to -- and did to --  America.  I refer to Prohibition.  It was then, just as it is today with Obamacare, all brought down on our heads by a bunch of people who were absolutely, positively, convinced they knew what was best for America and they were one hundred percent determined to "fundamentally change" America.

Boy!  Did they ever change America!

It was the 18th Amendment to the Constitution.  Americans referred to it as "Prohibition" just as today the "Affordable Care Act" is referred to as "Obamacare."  Both these nick names were/are intended to demonstrate the disgust in which Americans hold both Prohibition and Obamacare.

The grossly disliked Prohibition brought changes in and to American society and brought changes in American culture that have left their mark on this country.  Many of those changes we still feel today.   Not all these changes were for the better. There was a dark side to Prohibition. A very dark side.   See,  Prohibition actually fueled the very activities it was intended to eliminate: crime and drunkenness. It was, and remains, a classic case of what happens to a country when the "Law of Unintended Consequences" reigns supreme.

Consumption of alcohol in America actually increased during Prohibition, maybe sky-rocketed would be a better description.  And then there was the escalation of crime.

Boot-legging gangs took over.  Crime bosses, such as Al Capone, became what we would call today "rock stars."  Americans wanted booze and Capone gave it to them.  Capone is reported to have said:  "I am like any other man. All I do is supply a demand."

"Looking back, we can easily see that Prohibition was a failure. But it impacted us in ways we are still feeling. It did not purify American culture, as was intended. It irrevocably poisoned it. Drinking rates shot up dramatically, the federal prison population increased 366% (Organized Crime and Prohibition), and a young generation learned how much fun it was to be rebellious. Of course, we could also say that the spirit of rebellion was a positive outcome of the Prohibition; freethinking and nonconformity are two of the hallmarks of our society. But when these ideals were applied in such a lamentable way, as they were during Prohibition, they became not blessing, but curse." SOURCE:  http://voices.yahoo.com/how-prohibition-changed-america-7307854.html

Looking realistically at the political future of America, I still believe Obamacare will eventually be repealed. But I expect the earliest that can happen will be sometime after the year 2024.

Why?  Well, common sense tells me that should she decide to run for President, Hillary Clinton will become the next President of the United States.  THAT is a given -- at least from my standpoint.

It should be understood by now that the ONLY way the GOP can be successful in repealing Obamacare is with the House and Senate AND the Oval Office in Republican hands.  The only other possibility is having enough republican votes in both the House and Senate to override a presidential veto of any bill repealing Obamacare.

Just as the 18th Amendment wreaked havoc on America so will Obamacare.  Eventually, the 21st Amendment passed and repealed Prohibition (the 18th Amendment).   But -- a great deal of pain and suffering had ensued by the time that huge mistake had been corrected.

Understand, the Progressives (the Marxists) and the democrats (the Socialists) are never going to admit they made a mistake in passing Obamacare into law.  Never.  Which means that all efforts to repeal Obamacare will be met with total dedication to preserving the law from hell by the democrats.

In the meantime, we can stand back and watch the body count from Obamacare steadily increase until it finally becomes too much for compassionate Americans to bear.   From the millions of babies murdered by abortionists (paid with taxpayer dollars) to what some have called the "Eugenic disposal" of the elderly  (In other words:  "Let 'em die."). Death will become a hallmark of Obamacare.

Like Prohibition Obamacare has never been popular with the American people.  Unlike Prohibition the law was not even read by those who voted for it in the Congress.  At least, the 18th Amendment WAS read.

We can expect feelings toward Obamacare to sour extensively in the next few months when insurance premiums and taxes begin to skyrocket.  As of today, Americans understand -- generally -- that their President lied to them.   When they suddenly realize they will not be able to continue seeing the doctor they have entrusted their health, indeed, their lives to for decades, well, then it will be brought home to them.

It required over a dozen years to repeal the 18th Amendment.   It may take even longer to repeal the profane monstrosity that is Obamacare.  It will take the combined efforts of the sane, responsible, ADULT people of America to maintain unrelenting pressure upon the lawmakers of this nation to lift the government's yoke of socialized medicine from our necks let us alone.

The rage in America is intensifying every day the jack boots of the federal government remain on or necks.

History teaches us that it is not within the character of the American people to allow an encroachment of overbearing government for very long.   It's either back off or -- backlash.

© J. D. Longstreet

by; Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny


This will probably not be my last post, although if it were it certainly would be in my best interest. At least from a health perspective.

Reason in America has quite frankly jumped the shark. Politics, and by extension government has become a thing to be disdainful of. Personally all I have left for our politicians and GOVERNMENT is utter and complete contempt.

How easily and effortlessly the media, the politicians, the representatives, the senators, the political blogs full of partisan poisonous BS, the talking heads of FOX.. MSNBC.. Limbaugh... and more, all react to the strings their puppet masters are in control of.

Winning. Preserving the long held paradigm(s) of your chosen political ideology is ALL that is important.

Whether you be conservative, liberal, progressive, conservative, reactionary, libertarian, anarchist, socialist, communist, fascist, or whatever, you dare not risk it be said that you actually consider the issues and evident problem(s) in the attempt to find the best workable solution. It MUST first and foremost fit your long held paradigm(s) and resulting template.

There is a reason the American public holds Congress, and most everyone involved in governance in such low esteem. Those entrusted with the GENERAL WILL of the PEOPLE have failed to execute their charge.

However, having said the above here comes the core issue. The slap in the face if you will. Americans, by their own CHOOSING have failed to educate themselves on issues. They have chosen to believe the the "experts", the politically connected, the meaningless polls, the most charismatic speakers, the agenda driven talking heads. In essence the American electorate has allowed itself to lead because they simply have been too busy, or too lazy to identify for themselves exactly what their own rational self interests really are.

I only ask you to THINK about the above. Put the ideological paradigm(s) and the din of the self interested politically connected puppets and shills for all political ideologies and parties aside for the moment and consider what is ACTUALLY in the best rational LONG term interests of yourself, your family, and your nation.

Unless you act in your own rational self interests and that of your family and communities you are IN FACT allowing others to act on your behalf. As we know from historical realities POWER CORRUPTS and ABSOLUTE POWER CORRUPTS ABSOLUTELY.

The choice is yours, the responsibility is yours, and the results will be yours. Individuals do not exist in a vacuum. Society is a complex social construct. As a result living in society requires compromise. Effective compromise takes work, diligence, the ability to maintain an open mind, and it means NOT expecting you will win on all your cherished paradigms.

Progress is not anti conservative. Rather it is considered and cautious progress towards advancing the improvement of society overall and over time.

As I leave for a much needed emotional hiatus:

“When it shall be said in any country in the world my poor are happy; neither ignorance nor distress is to be found among them; my jails are empty of prisoners, my streets of beggars; the aged are not in want; the taxes are not oppressive; the rational world is my friend, because I am a friend of its happiness: When these things can be said, there may that country boast its Constitution and its Government”

― Thomas Paine, Rights of Man