The following chart shows annual GDP per Capita growth adjusted for inflation.
Click to enlarge.
What's the worst that could happen?
I'd be tempted to answer that we could stay in the long-term trend channel. I mean, that's really bad long-term, right?
I'd be wrong to answer with such optimism though. There's clearly something even worse. We could move to the middle of the trend channel again. That would be really bad. Note that the middle of the trend channel shows roughly -2.5% annual real GDP growth per capita. Ouch.
That's still not the worst that could happen though. In theory, we could actually move from the top of the channel all the way back down to the bottom again.
I'm not suggesting that the trend channel can accurately predict the future. I'm also not suggesting that we will move to the bottom of the channel even if it is valid going forward. I'm simply saying that the trend channel could be valid and that we could move to the bottom of it. Since 2004, I am a permabear. These are the things that would keep me up at night if I was a stock market investor.
In any event, I think it helps explain why I prefer long-term TIPS and I-Bonds. I'm just not much of a risk taker these days. I value my sleep.
This is not investment advice.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Real GDP per Capita Growth
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Demographics vs. Yields (Musical Tribute)
Click to enlarge.
The black line shows the employment level of 16-24 year old workers divided by the employment level of 55+ year old workers (left scale).
The blue line shows the 3-month treasury yield (right scale).
Coincidence? Let's make a scatter chart of that data.
Click to enlarge.
That's a fairly high correlation. I bet we can do better though. The data is noisy. Let's smooth it out by using 10-year moving averages and try again.
Click to enlarge.
Coincidence? I think not. Let's do another scatter chart.
Click to enlarge.
That's a very high correlation. If this chart is any indicator, then those anxiously awaiting a return to the interest rates of the 1970s may be in for an extremely long wait.
This is not investment advice.
Update:
I noticed a labeling error in my charts. It has been corrected.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
Posted by Unknown
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Milwaukee's First Latino Carnaval 2013 Parade And Festival
Juan Carlos Ruiz
Photos: HNG/HNNUSA
Photos: HNG/HNNUSA
Photos: HNG/HNNUSA
Photos: HNG/HNNUSA
Photos: HNG/HNNUSA
Photos: HNG/HNNUSA
More than a thousand participated in the First Latino Carnaval in Milwaukee's south side.
By H. Nelson Goodson
July 27, 2013
Milw., WI - On Saturday, the First Latino Carnaval parade and music festival with more than one thousand participants began at the 1100 block of W. National Ave. and made its way eastbound to the lakefront, ending at the Wherehouse Night Club festival grounds, 818 S. Water St. At the Wherehouse grounds, food, music and other events continued until late afternoon.
The 58 degree and cloudy cool weather didn't keep the hundreds of festivalgoers from attending. Saturday's Latino Carnaval grand parade was part of a week long celebration of Latino cultures represented in Milwaukee, according to Juan Carlos Ruiz, this year's coordinator of the Latino Carnaval and Grand Parade. Ruiz said, the event was sponsored by 34 partners that included JCS Consulting Solutions, LLC and other institutions, organizations, businesses and community groups to present a diversity of cultures and a celebration of their rich folkloric cultures that includes a variety of flavors of food, music and dance combined to bring a "Carnaval" celebration setting from each of the Latino Amercian countries represented in Milwaukee. This year's Latino Carnaval honorary Queen title went to Maria Monreal-Cameron, according to Ruiz.
The Latino Carnaval (LC) held a Salsa and Bachata dance competition at the event and the 1st place winners were Beth Weinrich and Jason Weinrich who won a trip to Mexico, according to Daniel Balderas, an LC Committee member.
This year's organizing committee for the Latino Carnaval (Carnival) were, Amber Rivard, Jaime Bernabe, Karen Valeria V., Paul Mueller, Daniel Balderas, Toni Ordoñez-Hodge, Barbara Leigh, Kathleen End, Julio Pabon and Adam Smith.
Marisa Hernández, Erica Hernández and H. Nelson Goodson posed for the crowds during the Latino Carnaval festival at the Wherehouse Night Club grounds.The Latino Carnaval (LC) held a Salsa and Bachata dance competition at the event and the 1st place winners were Beth Weinrich and Jason Weinrich who won a trip to Mexico, according to Daniel Balderas, an LC Committee member.
This year's organizing committee for the Latino Carnaval (Carnival) were, Amber Rivard, Jaime Bernabe, Karen Valeria V., Paul Mueller, Daniel Balderas, Toni Ordoñez-Hodge, Barbara Leigh, Kathleen End, Julio Pabon and Adam Smith.
Photos: HNG/HNNUSA
Photos: HNG/HNNUSA
Photos: HNG/HNNUSA
Photos: HNG/HNNUSA
Photos: HNG/HNNUSA
Posted by Unknown
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One pair of metallic shoes- 4 Bittersweet Colours Combination
Look 1.
Look 2.
Look 3.
Look 4.
It's been a while since my last update of " 3 Bittersweet Colours Combination"category posts and today I have for you 4 combinations.
Today's example is how to combine one pair of metallic heels( very trendy right now) with 4 different colours combination. I love them all and I find very easy to match them with any color but I want to know which one is your favorite.
Have a great and colorful weekend everyone!
Look 1.
Top: Joe Fresh/ option Here and Here
Jeans: Levis/ similar Here
Shoes: Zara/ option Here and Here
Clutch: 3.1 Phillip Lim/ Here
Look 2 .
Jeans: Mango/ Here and Here
Top: vintage/ option Here and Here
Shoes : Zara/ option Here and Here
Bag: 3.1 Phillip Lim/ another great one Here
Jacket: Aryn K/option Here and Here
Look 3.
Shirt: vintage/ similar Here
Jeans: Zara/ Here and Here
Shoes: Zara/ Here and Here
Clutch: 3.1 Phillip Lim
Look 4.
Top: vintage/ option Here
Bag: vintage
Pants: J Crew/ Here
Shoes: Zara/Here and Here
Bangle bracelet: Marni
Posted by Unknown
at 05.13,
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