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Gov. To Intercept, Read, And Store American's Smoke Signals?
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
*************************

This scribe warned for years that the US Government was intent upon reigning supreme over the Internet.

Government control of the Internet was a given.  They could not allow the Internet to remain free.

See, the Internet is the biggest threat to government, free and dictatorial, of all the threats existing today.

Why?

Because the Internet represents power, real power, for the individual.  The Internet is power in the form of information and communication.

Altho they will deny it, governments, the world over, want to control world wide instant communications between the people of the planet … period. 

I have mentioned in previous scribblings that there was a time, and not so long ago, that in order for there to be a successful revolution or uprising of the people against their government, the rebels absolutely MUST take control of the country’s radio and TV stations.

It remains a fact today, that for tin horn dictators (who still dot the globe) control of broadcast stations and other means of communications -- including the Internet and the print media -- is imperative in order to maintain power over their people.

Remember the key word in the paragraph above -- "POWER."   That's what it is all, about:  gaining and maintaining POWER.

Here in the United States we have just learned how vulnerable we have been for some time now to government eavesdropping on all our electronic communications.  See, we thought we were safe from such shenanigans, protected by our much vaunted Constitution and Bill of Rights. Imagine how BETRAYED we feel.  And make no mistake -- it is flat out  old-fashioned B E T R A Y A L !

And we can't point fingers at only the White House.  It is the Congress and the Courts, as well -- the whole shooting match -- they have all betrayed the confidence of every American citizen.

In the name of national security our government is acting more like the government of 1930's Germany than the government of free Americans.

Here, in what used to be a free America, we now know the government has access to every e-mail we send … not to mention our land line phone calls, and our cell phones, as well.  According to Col. Ollie North, the only communications the US government does not read are smoke signals. 

Now we learn from CNET the following:  "CNET has learned the FBI has developed custom "port reader" software to intercept Internet metadata in real time. And, in some cases, it wants to force Internet providers to use the software."  SOURCE:  http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-57596791-38/fbi-pressures-internet-providers-to-install-surveillance-software/

The FBI, we learn from this article, is pressuring Internet providers to install this eavesdropping technology deep inside the companies' internal networks to facilitate government surveillance efforts. 

"FBI officials have been sparring with carriers, a process that has on occasion included threats of contempt of court, in a bid to deploy government-provided software capable of intercepting and analyzing entire communications streams. The FBI's legal position during these discussions is that the software's real-time interception of metadata is authorized under the Patriot Act."   SOURCE:  http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-57596791-38/fbi-pressures-internet-providers-to-install-surveillance-software/

OK.  So how much more of this are we going to tolerate before we stand up, like men, and say:  "ENOUGH!" 

Indeed, the question is… how much control is enough control for the federal government, and, in particular -- Obama’s White House?  Or, how much control is TOO much control for the American people?  I ask again: when do we say ENOUGH and say it loud and clear so that those barricaded inside the White House hear us and understand that they are treading on some very tender toes, indeed.

The US government is also walking all over the constitution, the Fourth Amendment, to be exact. The Fourth Amendment is the part of the Bill of Rights which guards against unreasonable searches and seizures. 

One has to ask:  Has the Fourth Amendment been suspended?  Are these truly Post-Constitution days?  Is it time to pass out the pitch forks and torches?

Maybe I have just lived entirely too long. I have spoken to a number of my contemporaries and we all are in agreement that we never thought we'd live long enough to see our country, America, become a third world socialist/communist dung heap.  But, unfortunately, we have.  It's here.

The thing that is so disappointing for me, as an American who can still remember a free America, is the fact that Americans did not put up a struggle.  None -- at all.  We just marched right into slavery like the good little Marxists we were indoctrinated to be. 

The surrender of America to socialism/communism compels me to remember the 1970 feature move: "Suppose They Gave A War and Nobody Came."    Even though the title is derived from an American anti-war slogan from the hippie subculture during the Vietnam War era, to this scribe it still sums up, perfectly, what has happened in recent decades here in America.   The socialists/Marxists threw a war and we -- WE -- DID NOT RESPOND!   Hell, THEY WON BY DEFAULT!

I had always though that when our government even appeared ready to foist their socialist agenda on free Americans  the American public would rise up in righteous anger.  The tar pots would be dragged out and lit. The tar would be heated, the chickens would be plucked, and the rails would be split.  Washington would be slammed with a tsunami of American anger surging through its marble halls sweeping the rot of socialism before it into the gutter of American history where it rightfully belongs.

Grandiose, huh?  Yeah, well, forgive an old man his hallucinations of freedom loving America.  I now know THAT America no longer exists.  Forgive me for my now discredited belief that Americans were a breed apart, that when the  "ship DID hit the sand" red-blooded American men and women would defend their heritage of freedom and liberty with the fervor of their ancestors.

I was W R O N G!  

So what happens now?  I have no idea. I'm not a futurist.  Unlike them I haven't the training to advance theories based on future probabilities.  I don't have a clue how they do that.  But -- I can daydream.  And in my flights of day time fantasy, I see a period of chaos and then two nations emerge where one existed previously.  I dare not allow my imagination to pursue the route it has apparently chosen.  So, I will end my flirtation with futurism here.

America's taste of socialism has stripped us of our "greatness," our self confidence as a nation, our pride, and -- our freedom.

© J. D. Longstreet

Eddie Sotelo, aka, El Piolin and Alberto "Beto" Cortez

August 5, 2013
Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Commentary: The Minsky Bubble


Emphasis added. The article is just filled with juicy tidbits.

It would seem that we both were thinking about the impact of part time employees and margin debt this past weekend. Go figure.

And on that note, I'd much rather hold the "The Unloved 10-Year Treasury" to maturity than short it to maturity. I'm experiencing a disturbing sensation of long-term déjà vu.

This is not investment advice.

Click to enlarge.

The solid blue line shows the median over the period that it covers (mid 2004 through 2008). Both the solid red line and the solid orange line show the linear trends over the periods that they cover. All ghost lines are extrapolations forward of their solid versions.

Linear trend failures abound, mostly to the downside (with one notable exception recently).


Click to enlarge.

I am not experiencing buyer's remorse over the 19-year TIPS purchase on June 20th. It seemed like a relatively good long-term opportunity at the time and it still does.

Since I fully intend to hold to maturity, I doubt I will ever experience remorse (barring a complete financial collapse or hyperinflation, neither of which I am predicting over the life of the bond). That would be true even if real rates were to rise from here over the long-term. In fact, I root for higher rates so that I can repeat the process with the interest this particular bond generates. And what is the process of which I speak?

This 19-year TIPS was purchased using the accumulated interest of the 29-year TIPS purchase that I made in 2011. Not surprisingly, I have experienced no buyer's remorse over that purchase either, much to the dismay of Jeremy Siegel.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: 20-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity
St. Louis Fed: Daily Real Yield Curve Rates

The game show runs seven hours during the Ramadan period.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Click to enlarge.

October 7, 2008
FRB: Press Release


As seen in the following chart, problem "solved".


Click to enlarge.

For what it is worth, I continue to believe that this economy cannot tolerate high real interest rates any longer. It's just way too leveraged. As seen in the first chart, the epic exponential trend failure in commercial paper outstanding began in 2004. As seen in the second chart, interest rates on commercial paper started to rise in 2004. I doubt very much that was just a coincidence.

March 27, 2012
Wrong Way Siegel Strikes Again


Click to enlarge.

Hello? Interest rates way too high relative to trend? Could someone please explain how Ben Bernanke became Time Magazine's 2009 Man of the Year? Seriously, I'd really like to know.

Just opinions. This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Commercial Paper Outstanding
St. Louis Fed; 3-Month AA Nonfinancial Commercial Paper Rate

The most appropriate day to wear a lace dress is definitely a Sunday! And if is Sunday is a Farmer's Market and a Flea Market day for Bogdan and I. We love these kind of days when we pick fresh fruits and flowers for the whole week. As an extra excitement I found some vintage jewelry that I really like :)
I hope you all had a wonderful weekend and wish you an amazing week ahead!



                                                                                Dress: Aryn K/  Here
                                                                                Jeans: American Eagle/ great option Here and Here 
                                                                                Sandals: Matt Bernson/ Here and Here 
                                                                                Cuff bracelet: vintage/ option Here 
                                                                                Bag: Margot/ similar style Here and Here 
                                                                                Hat: H&M/ similar Here 
                                                                                Sunglasses: c/o zeroUV

She returns!

Is there any day worse than the first day after a glorious two week vacation? I think not. But I did miss y'all terribly and it does feel good to see a computer again (sort of).

We didn't get home last night until about 10 pm thanks to a three hour delay around Chattanooga, so I feel behind already. A dead stop on the highway in the mountains with two antsy girls (three if you count me) is not a prime Sunday drive, let me tell you.

So as I dig everything out of the car and start the mountain of laundry, imagine I'm spending my day working at this lovely spot.


Ahh, memories.

But have no fear, I had many projects going before I left, so I'll have plenty to share with you in the coming days!

So tell me, what did I miss while I was gone? Anything good? I need details people!

Public Being Snookered on Amnesty Bill in US House?
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
*****************

I don't know, but I have this queasy feeling in the pit of my stomach that is screaming at me that we voters are having the wool pulled over our eyes by the US House of Representatives concerning the Immigration Reform bill,  known otherwise by its more truthful moniker -- the Amnesty for Illegal Aliens bill.

In the past few days I have become convinced the House is going to pass that monstrous bill no matter the opposition against it by the electorate. 

I am ashamed of the GOP.    It is not the political party I was proudly a member of for a solid fifty years -- until last November, to be exact. After the awful handling of the republican campaign for president I had had it up to the gills with the lack of testosterone within the hierarchy of the party.  Before that election was over I had become convinced that the GOP was actually trying to lose the election -- keep the numbers reasonably close, but lose, nonetheless. 

Look.  The blue bloods and the country club set who are, for the most part, liberal republicans and/or moderate republicans, seem far more interested in maintaining their prestigious positions in the Congress than in acting in the best interests of the voters and the country as a whole.  

It is despicable!    Nevertheless, to an outsider looking in, that is exactly what it looks like, just more underhanded, duplicitous, back room deal making. 

Early last month (July 2013) the chance for passage of the immigration bill in the US House seemed to be slim and nine.  Rep. Doug Lamborn of Colorado was quoted in the press as saying: "there's almost unanimous agreement among the Republicans that the Senate bill is fatally flawed."

The bill most certainly IS flawed, in many ways, chief among them is not securing the southern border -- FIRST -- before anything else, and that so-called pathway to citizenship for illegal aliens who are already criminals for having broken US law when they jumped the border fence and entered the country illegally.  It's the same as breaking and entering into your abode -- into your home.

The chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Buck McKeon of California has been quoted in the press as saying: "There was pretty strong consensus that the border has to be secured before anything else."  Well, DUH!!!

Early last month (July 2013) Speaker of the House, John Boehner, issued the following statement:

"Today House Republicans affirmed that rather than take up the flawed legislation rushed through the Senate, House committees will continue their work on a step-by-step, common-sense approach to fixing what has long been a broken system. The American people want our border secured, our laws enforced, and the problems in our immigration system fixed to strengthen our economy. But they don't trust a Democratic-controlled Washington, and they're alarmed by the president's ongoing insistence on enacting a single, massive, Obamacare-like bill rather than pursuing a step-by-step, common-sense approach to actually fix the problem. The president has also demonstrated he is willing to unilaterally delay or ignore significant portions of laws he himself has signed, raising concerns among Americans that this administration cannot be trusted to deliver on its promises to secure the border and enforce laws as part of a single, massive bill like the one passed by the Senate."

You know what's frightening about Boehner's statement above?  He uses the words "common sense" not once -- but TWICE!  Any time our national legislators begin referring to "common sense" it scares the heck out of me.  The depth of their lack of that quality is immeasurable. 

Look.  It is no secret that our immigration policy is out of whack. It has been for too long now.  But we don't need a "Grand Plan" to fix it.  What we need is a moratorium on immigration for an undetermined length of time until we can devise a cool-headed approach to fix what ails the current policy.  Much of the "fix" I suspect would be simply enforcing the law we already have on the books.   

The first thing we must do is secure the borders of the United States.  Heck, we have US troops securing borders of foreign countries today and yet, our own border is as porous as a cullender.  Plus, it MUST be understood that amnesty/pathway to citizenship is off the table ... period.  If you're in the country illegally and we find you, we WILL arrest you and deport you.

Believe me when I tell you that in the southern states there is absolutely no sense of compromise on amnesty/pathway to citizenship. 

Consider the words of Representative Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.): "I cannot sell in South Carolina a border security plan where the security comes after the legalization. I can't sell a border security plan where Janet Napolitano gets to tell us the border is secure. I can't tell sell a border security plan when the executive can turn on and off triggers for politically expedient reasons, nor would I try to sell any of those plans."  SOURCE:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2013/06/30/rep_gowdy_the_senate_bill_is_not_going_to_pass_in_the_house.html

It is a sad commentary on America when I cannot believe that my government will do what it says it will.  Even with all the assurances coming from the House of Representatives that the Immigration Reform Bill will not pass in the House, I believe that it will.

Yeah, I know.  I have a real problem with suspending my disbelief.  You won't be surprised to learn that I don't believe in the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny, either.

© J. D. Longstreet

Benjamín Medrano Quesada

Click to enlarge.

July 18, 2013
Actually, Bernanke Has Done a “Phenomenal Job”: Jack Rivkin


Would Typhoid Mary have done a "phenomenal job" if she had offered ZIRP to her victims? It certainly sounds medicinal.

Perhaps "victims" isn't quite the right word. I'm sure Ben Bernanke was doing all he could to warn investors of the risks at the very top of the housing bubble.

"There's no housing bubble to go bust" but even if there is one, don't expect 4+ years of ZIRP? Memory lane sure cracks me up sometimes. Heck of a job Bernanke! ;)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Net Interest Margin



Click to enlarge.

This is your pilot. I have some good news and some bad news.

First, the good news. Thanks to the temporary benefit of ZIRP, we temporarily gained some altitude. We actually broke the long-term trend towards the ground (as seen in the blue trend line above). Hurray!

Now, the bad news. The plane has stalled. We'll be coming in a bit steeper than we had originally planned (as seen in the red trend line above). Please brace for "dramatic changes in cabin air pressure".


Click to enlarge.

I do have some more good news though. We're making excellent progress on our long-term plan to catch up to the Japanese banking system. A mere -0.03% per year? You call that a descent angle?

In all seriousness, if the net interest margin actually does rise from here then it probably won't be because banks suddenly decide to pay less interest to depositors. The typical yield of a 5-year CD is now just 0.5%. How much further can it fall? Amazingly, that's 0.9% less than a 5-year treasury that doesn't even require FDIC deposit insurance. In general, banks must have one heck of a marketing staff.

Survey: CD early withdrawal is costly


Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Net Interest Margin for all U.S. Banks
St. Louis Fed: Bank's Net Interest Margin for Japan

Click to enlarge.

Here's a crazy thought experiment.

Let's assume for the moment that this chart has merit.
Let's assume for the moment that ZIRP will end within 3 years.

Neither of these are a given of course. It's just a crazy thought experiment!


See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer
Retail Trade Employees per Capita
Mish: An Analysis of July Employment Numbers 1955 to 2013...

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Full-Time Employees per Capita

The following chart shows the spread between the 20-year treasury yield and the 5-year treasury yield. There's a missing data gap in the late 80s to early 90s, but it should not materially affect the conclusions.


Click to enlarge.

This chart contains two glaring linear trend failures. The first was a break from the long-term trend in blue (dotcom bubble popping). The second was a temporary break from the short-term trend in red (just before the full effects of the housing bubble were apparent to all).

Investors have been seriously burned twice so far (dotcom and housing) and it is my belief that if we are constantly told that treasuries are in a bubble, then investors will believe that treasuries must be in a bubble. Few seem to question what yields in Japan have done following their housing bubble in the early 1990s though. Nearly 5 years of ZIRP here haven't seemed to change many opinions either. Go figure.

Since 2001, there has been unprecedented fear of investing in long-term treasury bonds. That's what the red line in the chart tells me.

In 2001, the 20-year treasury bond yield averaged 5.63%. Many investors would sell their souls for that yield now (especially the ones who are still sitting in cash awaiting even higher yields). What will investors wished they had sold once the next recession hits? I'm going to suggest that it might not be today's 3.39% 20-year treasury bonds. I think there is a much more likely asset.

July 29, 2013
DEJA VU: People Are Using Borrowed Money To Buy Stock Like It's 2007 Or 1999


Just opinions! This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
U.S. Treasury: Daily Yield Curve Rates

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

What Say You?

I know what I say. It may not be exactly what you're thinking.
 

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny



A panacea as this gentleman w/out facts would have you believe or the road to the reality Greece, Portugal, and Cuba et all have experienced?.

I report, you be the ultimate judge...

Via: Memeorandum

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny


I am a PROUD AMERICAN. I am proud that this nation's founders, even given all the faults and history of injustices, created a nation of laws based on the concept that the rightful powers of governance rested with the people governed. The American Revolution, and indeed it was a violent revolution in every sense of the word, was the culmination of the rational thought developed during The Age of Reason and the Age of Enlightenment. The English colonies of North America, ruled by a tyrannical monarch and his tax policies rebelled in the name of LIBERTY from oppressive government in which they had no resresentation. History will bear out the reality free people, given control amd liberty over their own destiny can, and do accomplish great things. Look to the United States of America up to approximately 1964 AD for validtion of these facts.

Manny great speakers and orators have expounded on the greatness of the American experience. On how this nation of ours created the greatest wealth and amassed the greatest power this small planet has ever known, with perhaps the possible exception of Ancient Rome. After all all things are relative. However, I find myself refecting on something my secnd son Patrick D. Carpenter, who by the way is pursuing his doctoral degree at Northeastern University once said to me. He said, and I paraphrase, 'Dad, every great and powerful nation in history reached it's zenith and receeded into relative obscurity.' Something for our nation and it's leaders to think about.

By the way son you are right and I am very proud of you.