Daily news sites

Click to enlarge.

Real estate tops the list at #1. I'm sure we'll bounce back someday. Just need to keep pushing this asset higher and higher so that people can finally sell the darned things again (the mortgage liability is not included in the asset chart for somewhat obvious reasons). And as an added bonus, the higher we can push this asset price the higher we can get those property taxes. Everybody wins!

Pension fund reserves come in at #2. Other than record pension underfunding even as the stock market has risen 160% from the bottom in 2009, what could possibly go wrong with that asset class?

Corporate equities come in at #3. It's nice to see them doing so well lately. It does make me wonder though. The people who warn me about the treasury bond bubble also tend to be the ones who tell me that the retail investor hasn't gotten back into the stock market yet. It's very confusing to me because it looks like about 60% of the stock market value is sitting right there in the hands of the retail investor. Very odd.

Deposits come in at #4. Don't forget to load up on the 0.5% 5-year CDs. They might not yield nearly as much as their treasury equivalents, but they are still a bargain at any price. Has anyone ever warned of a certificate of deposit bubble? I think not. Perhaps it is because CDs are held to maturity by default but it takes maturity to hold a treasury to maturity. Just a theory. Of course, if you aren't much of a risk taker then you can pick something with a shorter maturity. You'll have to sacrifice some of that juicy yield though! Mwuhahaha! Sorry, there I go being immature again.

Equity in noncorporate business comes in at #5. I've got to tell you. That takes guts. It's a tough world out there. Could strike it rich. Could be stomped by big business. At least the Great Recession II can't happen. The Fed has permanently put a stop to recessions. I can't personally prove it, but if everyone believes it then it must be true. Only rising rates can cause a recession. Therefore, ZIRP makes recessions impossible. Just because we're very deep into uncharted territory, doesn't mean that investors don't understand exactly how the future will play out. It's self-evident, especially when CNBC repeatedly tells us just how self-evident it is.

Mutual funds come in at #6. There are some bonds in there, but my guess is that the majority is stocks. That would be even more exposure to the equity markets for the retail investor (who I am continually told is missing out on the rally). Mutual funds are the safer way to go of course, because nobody wants to risk a 20% loss all at once when that same 20% loss can be locked in and guaranteed over 20 years (assuming 1% per year in fees). Whatever you do, do not underestimate the power of a "professional" active fund manager to add value just because 76% fail miserably when trying to outperform the market index.

Durable goods come in at #7. That's my favorite! As I've mentioned in the comments recently, the United States dominates the self-storage industry with "almost 90% of the global market". Don't let that deter you from buying even more durable goods to protect your wealth though. One place near me only charges $696 per year for a 5'x5' unit. That's a screaming bargain for someone with too many plastic coat hangars. Paying someone to store them for you is money well spent. Somebody needs to fund the CEO's $3.23 million salary. Do you have any idea how hard it is to manage other people's money stuff? Not just anyone can point a person towards their stuff without actually wanting to do inappropriate things with that stuff when they aren't around. It takes serious discipline. If only the banking system could do the same!

At #8 we've got corporate bonds. They can't ever seem to offer enough to satiate our appetites. I'm especially interested in chasing the yields of the non-investment grade bonds. What's the worst that could happen again?

We're to #9. Finally some safety! Yes, sir. As long as each municipality has its own working monetary printing press (in sharp contrast to Detroit's broken one) and we can work through the serious injuries of the dotcom and housing bubbles, then you'll no doubt sleep very well holding tax-free municipal bonds to maturity and/or racing towards the sell button on your trading platform of choice someday.

And lastly, we've reached #10. It's funny that so much time is spent warning us about a treasury bubble when individually purchased treasury bonds make up such a tiny amount of our personal assets (less than 2%). In my experience, very few people even know how to buy them directly from the government. I'm not judging. I've seen many hours of financial TV in my life and I've never seen anyone offer advice on how to buy a treasury bond. I don't recall the term I-Bond ever coming up either. It's almost like there's no money in it for them if bonds are purchased directly from the government.

This is not investment advice!

Source Data:
FRB: Z.1 Release

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

Perhaps this was just a bit over the top. But kinda funny nonetheless. Beside, political caricatures and comedy have been around a very long time. But this is President Obama and therefore requires a greater degree of sensitivity.

(AP Photo/Jameson Hsieh)

AP - A clown wearing a President Barack Obama mask appeared at a Missouri State Fair rodeo this weekend and the announcer asked the enthusiastic spectators if they wanted to see "Obama run down by a bull."

The antics led the state's second highest-ranking official, Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, to denounce the performance in a tweet Sunday. He said it was "disrespectful" to the president.

"We are better than this," the Republican tweeted.

State Fair officials said the show in Sedalia was "inappropriate" and "does not reflect the opinions or standards" of the fair. "We strive to be a family friendly event and regret that Saturday's rodeo badly missed that mark," they said in a statement Sunday.

It wasn't clear if any action will be taken against the performers. {Read More}

Wondering what the reaction would have been from the left had it been a Bush mask. Just sayin given the enunciated and immense hatred the left has for GWB.

Via: Memeorandum

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

RALEIGH — Gov. Pat McCrory Monday signed into law a bill requiring voters to produce a photo ID when they go to the polls, a measure that was hailed by Republicans as a means for heightening ballot security but which was criticized by Democrats as a thinly disguised effort at voter suppression.

The measure signed by McCrory also reduces the early voting period by a week, ends early voting on Sunday, ends same-day voter registration, and does away with pre-registration of 16 and 17-year olds.

“North Carolinians overwhelmingly support a common sense law that requires voters to present photo identification in order to cast a ballot,” McCrory said in a statement. “I am proud to sign this legislation into law. Common practices like boarding an airplane and purchasing Sudafed require photo ID and we should expect nothing less for the protection of our right to vote.” {Read More}

Only the far left, those with a political agenda beyond reasoned thought oppose this common sense law.

Via: Memeorandum

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

Brought to you from the Santorum universe. A special place were you learn alternative reality.



Via: Memeorandum

Miguel A. Colón

Harry Reid, the Democrat Senator from Nevada who is the Majority Leader of the US Senate said this about Congressional Republicans opposition to President Obama in an interview yesterday:

“It’s been obvious that they’re doing everything they can to make him fail. And I hope, I hope — and I say this seriously — I hope that’s based on substance and not the fact that he’s African-American.”

Republicans are the ones who appointed the first two African-Americans to serve as Secretary of State (Colon Powell and Condoleezza Rice), elected the first African-American to the US Senate (Tim Scott), and appointed an African-American as US Ambassador to the UN (Alan Keyes) and the US Supreme Court (Clarence Thomas), to name a few African-Americans who have served their country as Republicans.

So I say to Harry – and I say this seriously – I hope your idiotic statement is based upon your being severely addled when you said that and not the fact that you are a complete and utter idiot.

Alex Lopez

The following chart shows the year over year change in inflation adjusted retail sales per retail trade employee (excluding nonstore retailers). I've used semiannual data to smooth out the trends.


Click to enlarge.

Should the value on the chart drop to zero (we're just barely above it now), retailers will no longer need to hire new workers. Any value below zero means retailers will need to start letting workers go. They will probably be slow to do it at first on the hopes of a rebound. Good luck on that. In any event, a recession probably wouldn't start to hit until they figure it out.

August 6, 2013
Siegel: Keep buying—you 'can’t lose'


Professor Siegel, you never cease to amaze me. Stocks are up 160% from the bottom in 2009. Can't lose on stocks? What hubris! No wonder Robert Shiller thinks the stock market bubble is back.

It is my opinion that the market is "totally spooked" because the retail trade data comes out tomorrow and this ballgame is in its 13th inning (still tied ZIRP to ZIRP). As seen in the chart above, the downward trend in growth is even more horrendous (steeper slope) than it was heading into the Great Recession. I see it. Supercomputers using advanced trading algorithms at investment banks no doubt see it too. Meanwhile, Siegel's taking his cues from Ben "There Is No Housing Bubble to Go Bust" Bernanke? Swing for the fences! Can't lose! Forehead. Desk. Whack. Whack. Whack.

That's not to say that the retail trade data will be awful of course. I'm just saying that the trend looks awful and I have no great desire to bet against that trend.

You may be wondering why I excluded nonstore retailers from the chart. They don't create jobs; they automate them. I'm more concerned about the 14.6 million jobs that are left. JC Penney employees are too no doubt. I can tell you first hand what lousy morale can do to a struggling company.

Once again, just opinions! I cannot accurately predict the future. Nobody can. At best, all I can do is offer a somewhat educated guess. This is definitely not investment advice. Alan Greenspan had some good advice back in 1966 though. It did not include "can't lose" in it. That's for sure.

"There is no safe store of value." - Alan Greenspan (1966)

See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Happy Monday y'all. Raise your hand if you could have used an extra day this weekend. Me too. And thanks to everyone for your ideas on the battle of the dying hydrangeas. I think I've found a solution which I'll share as soon as I get around to fixing it.

But for today, let's talk pretty bathrooms. I've had bathrooms on the brain lately, must be all of that potty training madness, so I thought we could ease into the week with some eye candy.


I like the idea of a his and her sink but with each side having a bit of its own personality. Especially since right now all we have is one his/her/her/her sink.


A large shower would be fun because this is a dream and why not have a large shower.


And of course a soaking tub with a view so I can look out at the ocean just beyond my pool.


In a master bath I like the idea of keeping everything white




and then adding some amazing fixtures




and marble. Some sort of marble.



The room will be bathed in natural light thanks to a skylight or two. (C'mon, that was a good Monday morning pun.)




And the cherry on top, some wonderful scones

Yes, it might be a lot of space for CoCo to clean. but he loves to stay busy. And since he makes his own organic cleaning solution, the whole place is left smelling like lavender. That CoCo, he's the best.

How about you? What does your dream bathroom look like?
And don't forget to come back on Wednesday to see how the bench turned out.

Find more great bathroom idea on my Pinterest board.

Farid Fata

Conflict Between The Christian Church And The State
America Needs The Church Militant!
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
***************
I am personally aware of a minister who will not marry a couple if either of them have been divorced.  His religious denomination is one of the largest protestant denominations in America. 

As a lad, I grew up in a protestant church that required a female member to stand in church and be dressed-down from the pulpit by the minister for her dalliance with other men not her husband.  She was publicly stripped of all her offices in that church and told she could remain as a member but would never hold a leadership position in the congregation again. (I was sitting just feet away from the weeping, humiliated,  lady as I witnessed the entire event.)

As I recall, the married couple remained married until the husband's death, some years later, and the humiliated wife remained a member of that church, at least, until his demise.

That was in the 1940's.  I am still conflicted by it.

I have no doubt the church did the right thing.  It was the manner in which they did it that bothered me then, as a child, and today as a man.  If it were to happen today there would be a chain of laws suits as far as the eye could see!

As a society, we have managed to tame the church.  And , frankly, I'm not so sure that's a good thing.

See, the church USED to set the standards for morality in the US.  Now the US Supreme Court and Hollywood set those standards.

The First Amendment to the Constitution guarantees religious freedom in the US, right?  Sure it does.  Uh-huh.   Tell that to the government -- especially the Internal Revenue Service.

I can remember when preachers stepped into the pulpit with nothing but a bible tucked under their arms.  When asked about their notes or their sermon script, they would reply that they spoke that which the Spirit "laid upon their hearts" to speak.  See, they made themselves available as a conduit for the  "Holy Spirit" to speak directly to the congregants there gathered.  Believe me, there were some powerful sermons delivered back in those days.  On occasion, one would affirm, one could smell the stench of sulfur.

But, by and large, those days are gone.  So is the church militant. 

The Church Militant (Ecclesia Militans), is supposed to be comprised of Christians who struggle against sin, the devil and "..the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places" (Ephesians 6:12).

In the letter by Paul to the Christians at the church in Ephesus, written around 60 AD,  Paul was careful to point out that the battle was  "against spiritual wickedness in high places."  Seems to me Paul could write that same letter to the Christian Church in America today -- and be spot on!

It is my contention that America needs the church militant today. 

We hear often of the War on Christianity in America.  I submit to you that there is NO WAR ON CHRISTIANITY because -- ONLY ONE SIDE IS FIGHTING! 

The church has gotten fat, lazy, and quite comfortable with the government doing the work it was assigned by the Almighty.

The hammer is about to come down on the Christian faith in America.

How long do you suppose it will be before a pastor is dragged into court for preaching that homosexuality is a sin? Not long, I warrant.

At the moment pastors across the land are avoiding any reference to the Christian belief that homosexuality is a sin because they fear for their job -- or even their freedom -- if they do preach that which their faith, their bible and most importantly, their God says is so.

Look at America today.  Observe how she has shrunken in on herself. Today she resembles more the evil city depicted in the scriptures in this manner:  "And another angel, a second one, followed, saying,  "Fallen, fallen is Babylon the great, she who has made all the nations drink of the wine of the passion of her immorality."  (Revelation 14:8)  America has gone from the "shining city on a hill" to a fallen heap of shame.

Look. Many of us have been calling for a movement to take our country back, to restore America, to save our beloved country. WE NEED THE CHURCH TO DO IT.  We need the Church Militant to get off its backside and get in the fight, IF we are to have any chance -- at all -- of saving America.

I'm so old that I actually remember when Ezra Taft Benson, served as both the Secretary of Agriculture under President Dwight Eisenhower -- AND -- the 13th President of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints.

Benson once said something that explained why it is so important for America that the church maintain a leadership role in this nation. Benson said:  “The Lord works from the inside out. The world works from the outside in. The world would take people out of the slums. Christ would take the slums out of people, and then they would take themselves out of the slums. The world would mold men by changing their environment. Christ changes men, who then change their environment. The world would shape human behavior, but Christ can change human nature.” 

I do not agree with some that recognizing the will of the majority regarding gay marriage while also protecting churches, clergy, and the laity from governmental bullying is the proper stance for the church to take today.

While I DO agree that protecting churches, clergy, and the laity from governmental bullying is rightfully a stance the church should take, I do not feel it is right for the church to sell out a tenet of the faith that is well over 2,000 years old existing even BEFORE the birth of the Christian church.
THIS is how the church lost so much of its moral authority.  This is how the church handed over it's leadership role to the government -- just in case you were wondering.

In my opinion, the church should be working -- non-stop -- to move legislative protection through the Congress and the 50 state legislatures that would prevent churches ever being forced to provide gay marriages under the cover of equal treatment or anti-discrimination laws. 

Whatever happened to freedom of religion?  Whatever happened to separation of church and state?  

One must understand that there is a double standard in America for the political left. The two issues above, freedom of religion and separation between state and church, are only raised when the leftist agenda is threatened by either or both.  Therefore the religious community in America need not expect to be allowed to maintain their stance, you know the one they have had for thousands of years, a tenet of their faith, that homosexuality is a sin, and NOT have the political left -- using the power of the government --come down on them much as a ton of bricks!  It WILL happen.

America will soon learn the churches with true devotion for, and to, the scriptures -- the very foundation of the faith they claim -- and those churches which are no more that civic clubs with no interest in furthering the cause of Christ on this earth.

As I look around me, assessing the condition of the church in America today, it has become clear (at least to me) that the church of true believers is fast approaching that remaining "remnant" of believers predicted by the scriptures in the so-called "end-times."

You can see them for yourself.  These are the Christians who feel they are called to repentance, obedience, prayer, proclamation, steadfast courage -- and sacrifice.  Their voices can be heard in our church pews, in Godly homes, in schools and in the public square. They are found in every denomination and among every community of faith. A fellowship of saints among saints, the grassroots voice of the Remnant is growing louder and stronger as the day approaches. SOURCE:  http://voiceoftheremnant.webs.com/

In the months and years ahead, as America continues its downward spiral, that remnant will be the only group standing between the church and those determined to destroy the church.  The remainder of the church, sad to say, will not be in the battle. 

Yes, the church militant is badly needed today.  But, I don't expect much from a clutch of Nervous Nellie's who won't even allow the old hymn "Onward Christian Soldiers" to be published in their hymnals.

© J. D. Longstreet

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny


I have my share of disagreements with the progressive mindset. Especially, and particularly with the far out leftists that haven't a clue about what liberty and individual freedom means or the value of retaining the same.

However, every once in a while a person with a considerably (and I mean considerably as in a boatload of) more overall progressive viewpoint than my own comes along that makes a whole lot of sense. When these occasions arise I think I would be remiss if I did not consider the author's views as well as passing them on to a different and broader conservative libertarian audience than might be otherwise reached.

Tao Speaks - I am not a big fan of either of the two major political parties that exist today in the United States and the minor parties that do exist seem to cherish being extreme and exist for no other reason.

I do understand the economic policies of the Republican Party and I believe they are fundamentally flawed. I honestly can say that as far as the Democratic Party goes its policies are not all that much different.

In all honesty I think the concept of “fundamentally flawed” is based on the fact that I believe that an economic system, especially capitalism, has at its core a goal of creating wealth, creating an opportunity for wealth, and creating an environment for economic equality, that is equal to none.

Jobs should be a pathway to wealth and increasing income equality; our economy cannot create jobs.

Do you realize that from December 1999 until December 2009 our economy created a net of ZERO JOBS? Did you know that since December 1999 to December 2008 that middle-income households suffered a NET INCOME LOSS, when adjusted for inflation?

With the passage of NAFTA and the repeal of Glass-Steagall coupled with the supply side economics and anti-unionism of the 1980′s we have witnessed to slow but total destruction of our economic system in our country. This is reflected in our GDP where corporate, after tax profits, make up 11.1% of our GDP while wages and benefits have dropped to 43.5% of our GDP: Corporate profits have been growing and wages have been shrinking as a percentage of our GDP and there is no way to change that trend.

I want to know whose side are we on? {Read More}

After reading Tao's article this fiscally conservative social libertarian site would be most interested in your comments.

Being reasonable and of active mind is far superior to being locked into any ideological dogmatic drumbeat.

August 8, 2013
Obama Urges Greece to Grow Its Economy


This isn't rocket science. Greece just needs to crank up the monetary passenger car registration printing presses.


Click to enlarge.

Phase 1: Print 30,000 passenger car registrations
Phase 2: ?
Phase 3: Economic prosperity restored



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

July 17, 2013
Bubbles Forever by Robert J. Shiller


As seen in the following charts, the bubbles are definitely getting increasingly difficult to control. In my opinion, it's not a coincidence that the housing bubble was worse than the dotcom bubble.


Click to enlarge.

The high points form an exponential trend. The low points form a 2nd order polynomial trend. In addition to the extremely high r-squared values, both trends have plenty of data points to support them. If current trends remain in place then the following is what we can expect to see in the distant future.


Click to enlarge.

The risks do not end here. Real wages per capita have fallen since 2000. These charts would imply that wages are very important to real net worth per capita, especially if we ever start to hug that blue trend line again. I could definitely see that happen. Just look at the period from 1952 to 1980 on the charts. There was no growth in the household net worth to wages ratio. The 1980s and 1990s are over. What comes next is anyone's guess.

In my opinion, this is long-term uncertainty of biblical proportions, especially for those who thought we were past the worst of it and have gone all in on risk. I can't speak for others, but baby most definitely does not need new shoes.



This is not investment advice.

See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The following chart shows leisure and hospitality employment as a percentage of all nonfarm employment.


Click to enlarge.

This exponential trend shows no signs of stopping any time soon. Apparently this is where the jobs of the future will be. We keep cranking out college graduates with massive student debt though. Woohoo! Sigh.

The next chart shows leisure and hospitality earnings as a percentage of total private earnings. I'm only including production and nonsupervisory employees.


Click to enlarge.

Generally speaking, these jobs pay about 41% less. It's actually a bit worse than that. Average private earnings are being pulled down by these low paying jobs (more and more so as these jobs expand). Put another way, if leisure and hospitality jobs grow to 100% of employment (which they clearly won't), then leisure and hospitality jobs would pay the same as overall employment. They'd be one and the same thing.

The next chart shows how many years the typical leisure and hospitality production and nonsupervisory employee would have to work to buy a house with cash, assuming 2,000 hours worked per year and no other expenses (like interest on a mortgage loan, home maintenance, appliances, property taxes, income taxes, food, clothing, furniture, gasoline, new car purchases, auto maintenance, health care, and so on).


Click to enlarge.

As seen in the eyes of a leisure and hospitality employee, hello Housing Bubble II. Fantastic. This is where many of the jobs are being created and yet these employees cannot afford to make a median new home purchase. Hello?

The next chart shows how many hours the typical leisure and hospitality production and nonsupervisory employee would have to work to fill a 15 gallon gas tank (assuming no payroll taxes of any kind).


Click to enlarge.

4.6 hours! Is it any wonder that vehicle miles traveled per capita has peaked? This "new and improved" economy apparently requires workers to move very close to where they work. Unfortunately, the old economy was all about trapping people in the 'burbs.

Let's summarize. Leisure and hospitality is apparently the "growth" engine of the future. Production and nonsupervisory leisure and hospitality employees currently earn an average $11.76 per hour. They make roughly 41% less than the typical production and nonsupervisory employee. They have seen their real inflation adjusted earnings fall throughout most of this "recovery" (other than an initial dead cat bounce). They are working 4.6 hours to fill a 15 gallon gasoline tank (with additional hours to pay the payroll taxes on those earnings). They'd have to work 11.3 years to pay for the median house with cash (assuming no other expenses or taxes of any kind).

This is not investment advice. If it was, I'd suggest that the nearly 1.3 million leisure and hospitality employees added since the bottom should probably not be looking at new homes to purchase in the weeks ahead, especially if they have massive student debt. That's just the crazy opinion of a permabear though. What do I know?

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Leisure and Hospitality Employment Analysis
St. Louis Fed: Leisure and Hospitality Earnings Analysis
St. Louis Fed: Leisure and Hospitality Housing Analysis
St. Louis Fed: Leisure and Hospitality Gasoline Analysis

Milwaukee, WI (HNNUSA) - U.S. disabled workers are paid 25 cents or less an hour while executives get 6 figures in 13 states of Goodwill Franchises including Wisconsin under Section 14 (c) of the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938, NBC News reported. Disabled workers have been discriminated for years, even in modern day America.

The following chart shows total vehicle miles traveled divided by total motor gasoline supplied.


Click to enlarge.

The next chart shows fuel efficiency standards.


Click to enlarge.

Like generals fighting the last war, the government is finally adapting to higher oil prices. It only took them 10 years or so to spot the trend.

August 10, 2013
The Illusion of an Auto Industry "Recovery"



Click to enlarge.

The typical American is adapting much faster than the government. Big shocker. Here is the question of the day. Now that they are both on the same page, what will their combined efforts do going forward?

August 10, 2013
Calculated Risk: Forecasts: Oil and Gasoline Prices expected to decline

I'm not going to lose any sleep thinking about peak oil tonight. I shall dream of perma-ZIRP instead. It's the gift that keeps on giving!



Source Data:
EIA: Motor Gasoline
St. Louis Fed: Vehicle Miles Traveled
Wikipedia: Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE)

Rafael Caro Quintero and Enrique "Kiki" Camarena

The following chart shows the spread between the 30-year TIPS yield and the 20-year TIPS yield.


Click to enlarge.

The spread was clearly following the surface of Jeremy Siegel's head. I factored in something that most investors did not though. Yields would bounce off his left ear! Genius!

In all seriousness, we almost experienced an inverted yield curve between the 20-year TIPS and the 30-year TIPS. In hindsight (at least so far), the 20-year TIPS therefore became a relatively good buying opportunity. If the bond market is the stock market's smarter brother, then it would be hard to see it in this chart. Once the panic began, crazy things happened.

Some investors might find it difficult to invest in TIPS with his eyes peering at us like that, but all I see is Kilroy!


I'm not suggesting that Professor Kilroy is a high-level Allied spy, but there have been days when I've been convinced that he's working in counter-intelligence.



Jeremy Siegel


Shame on me for creating this chart. I just couldn't help myself! I have a twisted sense of humor and this was way too good to pass up. :)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart