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For the Optimists:

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It's a sure thing! Can't lose!

For the Pessimists:

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It's a sure thing! Can't win!

I sure wish there was a way to break the tie between the optimists and the pessimists. I could probably start by pointing out that the optimists have at least one thing wrong. Constant growth really should be using an exponential trend and not just a linear one. Here's the problem with a linear trend. If it takes roughly 20 years for median income to double once (as seen in the first chart for the most part), then it will take an additional 40 years for it to double again. See why linear trends kind of stink when it comes to growth?

That's what makes the pessimist case slightly more believable. Growth is definitely slowing. Both charts clearly show it. It's just that the first chart shows it in a much more subtle way. What would happen if the growth continues to slow?

September 9, 2013
Study: Demographics to Drag Down Median Income


Oh oh. Why?


Women! I knew it! The *real* men among us will just need to convince women to each work 2 jobs! That seems totally doable in this increasingly automated and outsourced world with chronically high unemployment. I suggest, "I bet you can't work *two* jobs! You're just a woman!" That's sure to be a big hit in any household!

And when I say big hit, I mean that the future's so bright I gotta prepare a cold compress for my eye. I'll have quite the shiner! Although optimism means that I can expect the best possible outcome, I just don't have it in me. I'm clearly planning for more of a pessimistic worst-case bodily injury type of outcome, lol.

In all seriousness, we're so @#$%ed long-term. This is not investment advice.

This post inspired by Revolting as seen at Retirement Blues.

Update:

I originally stated that this data was in inflation adjusted dollars. It was pointed out to me in the comments by mab that this data didn't look inflation adjusted though. After further review, he was absolutely right. Although the data source used inflation adjusted data for the 2-year and 3-year median income averages, it did not use it for the single year averages (which I was using). I have added the "my personal blunders" tag to this post. I should have spotted it. All the conclusions here remain valid. In inflation adjusted terms, things are much, much worse.

Source Data:
U.S. Census: Income

Asa George

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The noninstitutional population of those aged 16 to 24 divided by the noninstitutional population of those aged 25 to 54 is shown in blue.

The employment level of those aged 16 to 24 divided by the employment level of those aged 25 to 54 is shown in black.

If you look closely, you can see that there is a divergence between the two series starting in 2000. They no longer generally move in the same direction.

The following scatter chart shows the old trend compared to the new trend. I'm using 7 year moving averages to really smooth the data out (which helps eliminate the noise and the temporary effects of short-term cyclical recessions and short-term cyclical expansions). This allows us to more easily spot any structural problems that might remain.


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As seen in the chart, there's a new trend in blue and it's looking mighty ugly. I think it really is safe to say that it is different this time.

Pardon my language, but it really sucks to be 16 to 24 years old right now. It would seem that those aged 25 to 54 are not all that willing to give up their jobs in this difficult economic environment. This behavior change did not start in the aftermath of the housing bubble. It actually started at the very height of the dotcom bubble.

Let me be very clear here on what the chart has been saying since April of 2000. The more 16- to 24-year-olds appear compared to their 25- to 54-year-old counterparts, the fewer jobs they get relative to their counterparts. This is a decidedly horrible trend, especially if we someday expect the younger generation to "rescue" the older generation's economy again. You know, by being first-time home buyers filled with irrational exuberance and what not. Sigh.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

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Start with retail sales. Subtract off motor vehicles and parts (mostly purchased with excess credit), gasoline station sales, food sales, and nonstore retail sales (since nonstores tend to hire non-employees). Adjust for inflation and divide by the population. The chart shows what's left. It's the perfect recipe for MaxedOutMama's disturbing Utterly Schizoid NFIB Report.

In my opinion, the core economy is running out of steam again. They say nobody rings a bell at the top. I guess everyone is just too busy counting their money while they're sitting at the table.



Source Data:
Census: Monthly & Annual Retail Trade
St. Louis Fed: CPI
St. Louis Fed: Population

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Warning: Not necessarily suitable/safe for work.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

Saturday was a peaceful day. The hubs and I had both had long, stressful weeks and we had zero plans for the weekend. A rare treat. The girls slept in and the sun was shining. Life was good. If I was in a Disney movie, I would have been singing in a field with a blue bird on my shoulder.

We went out to breakfast and were heading to the park for some quality playground time when we drove by my favorite Saturday sight - an estate sale sign. My sweet and loving hubs, who knows me so well, immediately said "drop us off at the park and you can run by and check out the sale." (he gets an extra Christmas present this year) I threw helped everyone out of the car and drove over to check it out.


It was crowded but I wasn't finding anything that spoke to me. Until, on my way out, I saw him. I smiled and he said "pick me."

His trunk was "injured" as the lady told me, but all of his parts were right there next to him just waiting to be put back together. And at $2.50 I couldn't go wrong. If this dude was in tip top shape he would be a few hundred. Until...crap. I was so busy enjoying my lazy Saturday that I had been too lazy to remember my wallet.

I ran out to the car and checked for loose change. I found a dollar in quarters and took a chance. I explained that I wanted the broken elephant and was it negotiable. "All I have is a dollar," I said in my best 'take pity on my' voice.

"I'll give it to you for $1if you promise not to use Elmer's Glue to put it back together. That just won't hold like you'll want it to," said the old lady in charge.

Umm, OK. That's a deal.


I love his detail.


And I think I will name him Elmer. In honor of the coo coo lady who let me have him for $1.

Do you have any good estate sale stories? Do you have something you couldn't pass up, even if it wasn't in the best shape? Have you ever tried to glue something this heavy back together using Elmer's? I didn't think so.

And remember, there is still time to sign up for your chance to win a $200 gift card to Target! (oh yeah). Giveaway ends Friday!

Defendants are:

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

Interesting possibility from the NEW REPUBLIC.

This, apparently, is how diplomacy happens these days: Someone makes an off-hand remark at a press conference and triggers an international chain reaction that turns an already chaotic and complex situation completely on its head, and gives everyone a sense that, perhaps, this is the light at the end of the indecision tunnel.

Speaking in London next to British Foreign Secretary William Hague on Monday, Secretary of State John Kerry said that perhaps the military strike around which the administration has been painfully circling for weeks could be avoided if Bashar al-Assad can "turn over every single bit of his chemical weapons to the international community in the next week. Turn it over, all of it, without delay, and allow a full and total accounting for that.”

The fact that Kerry immediately followed with, “But he isn’t about to do it, and it can’t be done, obviously,” didn't seem to bother anyone. (Probably because they were focusing on his other slip-up: calling the promised strikes "unbelievably small.")

The Russians immediately jumped on the impromptu proposal, calling Kerry to check if he was serious before going live with their proposal to lean on Syria. An hour later, they trotted out Syria's foreign minister, Walid al-Mouallem, who said he too was down with the proposal, which was a strange way to get the Syrians to finally admit they even had chemical weapons to begin with. Before long, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon, the English, and the French were all on board, too.

Meanwhile, back in Washington, the White House was just as surprised as anyone. Asked if this was a White House plan that Kerry had served up in London, Deputy National Security Advisor Tony Blinken was unequivocal. "No, no, no," he said. "We literally just heard about this as you did some hours ago."

So that's good. At least everyone's on the same page.{Read More}

Interesting hypothesis indeed. Possibly correct. Possibly... not?

If planned all along by the Obama administration recognizing Russia's national interests in Syria it would be a stroke of diplomatic genius. Perhaps only the Shadow (will ever) know(s) the real truth truth.


Via: Memeorandum

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Why would we need more repairs? What's the worst that could happen?







Have I mentioned lately that I have no desire to be a landlord? ;)

Evil pranks! And yet I cannot stop laughing, lol. Well, that's not quite true. A quick look back at that first chart stops me. Sigh.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment
St. Louis Fed: Population

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

Any questions? If so perhaps the obvious is just to difficult to understand?



Read the entire sordid story HERE.

Via: Memeorandum

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FAIL.

September 6, 2013
Consumers rely on car financing more than ever


The future's so bright I gotta wear 27.5% subprime shades!

See Also:
The Illusion of an Auto Industry "Recovery"

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Beyond the Farthest Island
The Mars One Project
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
*****************

I read an article recently that would-be space pioneers are signing up in droves to be the first humans to rocket to Mars -- and remain there for the rest of their lives.  No round trip, and no way back later, either.  At last count over 30,000 US citizen had already signed up to go, well, APPLIED for a seat on the ship to Mars.

When the vetting process is finished only four people will be chosen to go -- two men and two women.

Understand:  This is a ONE-WAY-TRIP ... period.  There ain't no coming back to ole Mother Earth.

Consider this from http://www.digitaltrends.com/
"It’s not certain if it’s a mark of how miserable people are feeling about life on terra firma, or an indication of just how far people are prepared to go to satiate their appetite for adventure (possibly a mixture of the two?), but 100,000+ applications for a one-way ticket to Mars is an impressive figure in anyone’s book.

We’re talking about the Mars One project; you may have already heard of it. The Dutch-based company behind the plan – and yes, it is for real – wants to colonize the red planet, kicking things off in nine years’ time with its very first mission.

The application process, which opened in April, costs $38 and involves submitting a resume, a letter outlining the motivation behind your application, and a video – a selection of which can be viewed here – explaining why you’d like to be considered."  SOURCE:  http://www.digitaltrends.com/international/mars-one-project-more-than-100000-sign-up/

The article continues:  "The plan is to select a group of 40 of the best applicants from around the world by the end of this year, before whittling it down to just four – two men and two women. If all goes to plan, the mission will blast off in September 2022, arriving on Mars seven months later in April 2023. Another four people would be sent to Mars two years later."  SOURCE: http://www.digitaltrends.com/international/mars-one-project-more-than-100000-sign-up/#ixzz2eJq1Hnvb

If you think you detect a bit of excitement in the scribe's pen when writing about space travel, space exploration, and space colonization, you are absolutely correct.  It is a dream I have had since childhood. 

See, I am convinced that man's destiny lies out there -- among the stars -- and even beyond the stars.

Man is inherently an explorer.  We yearn to learn what's over the most distant hill, around the next corner, beyond the moon, past the galaxy, past the universe, and on and on and on. 

I had once thought that space exploration and colonization should belong to governments.  I no longer hold that opinion.  As one looks at the early history of America we see that private companies financed a great deal of the exploration of this continent.

Yes, I am aware that by allowing private companies to lead the way in the exploration and colonization of new world planets, some of them will become unbelievably wealthy with treasuries exceeding those of many countries on earth.  Entire planets, entire worlds, will be owned by -- and governed by --  CORPORATIONS.  And why not?  They will have bought and paid for the privilege.

But a clash is already forming.  There will be future clashes between governments and private companies over property rights, mineral rights,  even real estate, and such, in space.  We've seen it all before, except right here on earth.  It all got sorted out, to one degree or another, in time.

Earth governments already aggressively exploring space are not just spending all that cash for the prestige of being a space-faring nation,  Oh, no.  They are looking for a return on all that spent cash.  They can be expected to "protect" their investments in space aggressively,  And, hey!  There's no law in space.  So, "what ever it takes" may well become a watch word in settling disagreements way out there beyond the reach of the so-called long arm of the law.

So far as having only adherents to conservative politics (as I have suggested) as the colonists of Mars and/or other planets, well, yes, my tongue was resting firmly in my cheek.  BUT, having said that, it might be worthy of considering having colonies consisting of colonists who share the same political ideology.  Having a capitalist planet and a communist planet separated by a few hundred light years does have a certain appeal, I must say.

However this all shakes out, it will be a whole new world(s) in less than ten years when Mars One blasts off.  Hopefully, those chosen to populate the new colony will shake off much of our divisive philosophies leaving them here, on earth, where they were created. 
Then, again, that's not realistic.  We are, after all, only human.  That has not , nor will it, change.  We're an exasperating lot.  Even God, Himself, repented, at least once, that he created us.

Now, we are about to go traipsing around in the Garden of God, out beyond the blue cloak of this earth, hopefully, we will be respectful of the endless power, majesty and beauty of that realm.

Since man's earliest sentient moments he has gazed longingly at the stars of the night sky.  A yearning akin to homesickness seems to emanate from his soul.  Only a hopeless romantic, or a fool, such as yours truly, would dare think it possible that man is finally preparing to go "home."  Then, most of us who hail from northern European ancestry have a tad of the Viking in our DNA.  Maybe, like our ancient forbearers we, too, have a longing to learn what is just past the farthest Island.   Indeed, we do.

© J. D. Longstreet

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of real currency in circulation per American nonfarm payroll employee (July 2013 dollars).


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As seen in the chart, I think it pretty much goes without saying that this is not 1982. It does look a bit like World War II though. Is there another world war right now that nobody told me about?

I have not filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for President of the United States in 2016, but I'd certainly like to keep my options open. I therefore offer the following pledges so everyone knows where I stand on the tough issues facing our country.


Who wouldn't like that? In this increasingly digital age, we're currently $500 above trend! The prosperity is practically overflowing!

If you are a guy and you have a job in this more cash and less work environment, then I feel your pain. I'd like to ask you serious questions about the main issue that I assume affects you the most. How do you get your wallet to close with $8,600+ cash inside? Does this country need to make larger denomination bills? As of May 30, 2009, only 342 $5,000 bills were known to exist. What a tragedy!


On the off chance you are a bit shy of the $8,600+ in cash ($26,000 for a family of 3) then have no fear. Perhaps someone else does and it is on the verge of trickling down to you. I know you've been patient for 30 years so far, but perhaps you just need to be patient for a few more years!




See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

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We have a new pet. She's a 10 pound Shih Tzu and her name is Cocoa.

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The record high of 11.03 hours per capita was set in April of 2000. I see very little evidence that a new record will ever be reached.

From a long-term perspective, we are currently in the illusion of prosperity's unwinding phase. Put another way, we're in a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market. It's just an opinion of course. Your opinion may vary.

September 18, 2007
Suze Orman vs. Warren Buffett

I'm afraid that the people selling are the little investors. - Suze Orman, April 2000

Fabulous economy. Best that we've had in forever, almost. - Suze Orman, April 2000

Speaking of fabulous economies...

August 31, 2006
Why Do Americans Hate their Fabulous Economy?


In hindsight, that's just priceless. It would seem that the original source of that quote has been [nearly] permanently deleted. The Internet is not [nearly] so forgiving though. It is very difficult to undo what was once said in public.

As for being a reporter, I don't need an excuse to use a chart. I dwell on them. This "fabulous economy" has *so* many trend failures that I can't even begin to keep up. They fascinate me, both in quantity and quality, lol. Sigh.

This is not investment advice, but it does lean heavily towards gallows humor.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment
St. Louis Fed: Population

The following chart shows the 24-month moving average of average weekly hours of private production and non-supervisory employees. I have added an exponential trend line in red.


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The next chart shows the deviation from the long-term trend. I have added recession indicators in blue.


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The next two charts provide a short-term look at that same data.


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Note that the 24-month moving average of hours worked is starting to roll over (again). This does not bode well for future employment growth.


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The Jetsons


Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: NBER based Recession Indicators
St. Louis Fed: Average Weekly Hours Of Production And Nonsupervisory Employees: Total private

I'm over at The Green Room Interiors  today, pimping Kimberly's dollhouse. Check it out and see my boards for her living and dining rooms. There was no budget and she provided some amazing pieces to start with so basically I went hog wild.



And don't forget to enter the AO at Home giveaway for your chance to win a $200 gift card from Target!

Happy Monday!