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Revolving Credit vs. Disposable Personal Income (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the 10-year moving average of the natural logarithm of the ratio of revolving credit to disposable personal income.


Click to enlarge.

When using natural logarithms, constant growth is seen as a straight line. We aren't seeing a straight line though. Instead, we're seeing a nearly perfect upside down parabola.

Over the long-term, this particular growth engine is done. Stick a fork in it.

The future's so bright I gotta roll over in symphony. (Pun intended.)



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Michael Kors f/w 2013 Fashion Presentation by AMERICANA MANHASSET

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This weekend I'll take a short break from my NYFW posts to present you an event that I attended this week in New York. 
Americana Manhasset invited me to the 21st Annual Fall Luncheon & Fashion Show- featuring  2013 F/W Michael Kors Collection at the Old Westbury Gardens. Every September they provide a fantastic Fashion Show, each year a different designer, to support Women's Health Committee.
For over twenty years, Partners Council for Woman's Health has devoted their energies and resources to educating woman about their own health and raising significant founds to ensure that cutting-edge programs, facilities and the latest technological advances are always available to the women of our community.
I had the pleasure (for the first time) to be backstage and to see how the models makeup and hair is done and I also had a closer look at the collection, a collection that I really like!
Moments like this when fashion and great causes are united in one event are priceless and I'm grateful that I was a part of it. 
Thank you Americana Manhasset for having me once again!













3-year-old Boy Among 13 Shot With AK-47 Military Grade Assault Rifle At Chicago Park

Deonta Howard

The shooting victims range from ages 3 to 41 years of age and no was reported killed. 

By H. Nelson Goodson
September 20, 2013

Chicago, Illinois - On Thursday, police responded to a massive shooting at the Back of the Yards neighborhood Cornell Square Park at the 1800 block of W. 51st Street. Around 10:15 p.m., a lone gunman walked up to a basketball court in the southside park and fired an AK-47 military grade 7.62 mm caliber assault rifle at the crowd. Sixteen spent cartridges were later recovered in the park area for evidence.
Thirteen victims were reported injured including Deonta Howard, 3, who was shot in the ear and the bullet exited his cheek. He is expected to have cosmetic surgery to repair facial damage.
The twelve other victims range in ages from 15 to 41-years-old. A boy, 15, was shot in the arm; a girl, 17, shot in the foot; a man, 21, shot in the leg; a woman, 23, shot in the foot; a man, 24, shot twice in the stomach; a man, 25, shot in the knee; a man, 27, shot in his wrist and leg; a man, 31, shot in the buttocks; a woman, 33, shot in the shoulder; a man 33, shot in the leg and a 41-year-old man also shot in the buttocks. Twelve of the injured victims were taken to numerous hospitals for treatment, the 33-year-old man who was shot in the leg drove himself to a hospital, police reported.
All the victims are expected to survive.
Police believe it was a gang related shooting, but no suspects have been arrested. Neighbors near the park report that the area is not patrolled regularly by police and the zone is considered gang infested by authorities. 
Chicago had just been ranked by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) as the number one murder capital in the U.S. Chicago out ranked the City of New York (NYC) with 500 reported homicides in 2012.
In 2011, NYC had 515 homicides compared to Chicago with 431.

The FBI reported that crime statistics showed the following 15 U.S. cities with the most reported homicides in 2012.

1. Chicago reported 500 murders
2. New York, 419
3. Detroit, 386
4. Philadelphia, 331
5. Los Angeles, 299
6. Baltimore, 219
7. Houston,  217
8. New Orleans, 193
9. Dallas, 154
10. Memphis, 133
11. Oakland, 126
12. Phoenix, 124
13. St. Louis, 113
14. Kansas City, 105, and
15. Indianapolis with 101 murders

Source FBI

Senator Rand Paul Getting it Exactly Right...

Senator Rand Paul Getting it Exactly Right...
by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs-Tyranny


 You certainly won't hear many disagreeing with Senator Paul's position on this one. Well, that is of course unless you're really a big government fanatic that believes Big Bother has every right to every aspect of your life. Keep on pressing on this one Senator Paul. Maybe you could start a "Repeal the Patriot Act" movement while you're at it? Read the the full story  HERE Via: Memeorandum

The Typical Retail Trade Employee's Near Miss

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of weekly hours worked by production and nonsupervisory retail trade employees.


Click to enlarge.

This is your captain. I have good news and bad news.

First, the good news. Although it appeared to be a sure thing, I am pleased to report that we averted the disaster of hitting the median. The plane stalled just in the nick of time.

Now, the bad news. Similar to the period from 2003 to 2009, we are once again screaming towards the ground again. Please assume crash positions.

See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
BLS: Employment

Red Lobster in Mourning (Musical Tribute)

September 20, 2013
Revamps for Olive Garden, Red Lobster fall flat

Despite the moves, sales fell 4 percent at Olive Garden restaurants open at least a year in the latest quarter. The figure was down 5.2 percent at Red Lobster, where the company added more non-seafood options to attract a broader audience. Darden has blamed its troubles on a variety of factors, including more cautious spending by consumers.

Red Lobster at night
Investor's delight
Red Lobster in mourning
Investor's warning



This post inspired by Watchtower in the comments found here.

See Also:
Is the old adage “Red sky at night, sailor’s delight. Red sky in morning, sailor’s warning” true, or is it just an old wives’ tale?

Peak Covered Employment per Capita


Click to enlarge.

How can any rational person look at that chart and only see the best possible outcome?

As a side note, we're currently being pulled down and away from the long-term parabolic trend by the 41% reading in July.

Update:

Here's a chart of the raw data so you can see where we currently are relative to the long-term trend.


Click to enlarge.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Guerrero, Father Of Five U.S. Born Children Awaits An Obama Miracle To Stay His Deportation Order

Ulises Guerrero and Isaac

Photo courtesy of La Opinion

Guerrero was caught in 2008 working after over staying a tourist visa in California. 

By H. Nelson Goodson
September 20, 2013

Los Angeles, California - Ulises Guerrero, 33, originally from Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico is facing deportation, if an immigration judge issues a final order for his removal by next week on September 26, La Opinion reported. Guerrero came to the U.S. as a tourist in 2002 and immediately began to work. In 2008, Guerrero while working at Micro Solutions Enterprises in Van Nuys was taken into custody by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement after they raided the company and arrested 138 undocumented workers including Guerrero who didn't have authorization to work and over stayed his tourist visa.
Guerrero is married to Sandra Zamorano and has five children that were born in the U.S., with the youngest, Isaac being just a month old. 
Community members from San Fernando, Panorama City, Ventura, Oxnard, Los Angeles, Lynwood and the organization Hermandad Mexicana Transnacional have launched a letter writing campaign to draw President Obama's attention to Guerrero's deportation case. Guerrero wants to remain in the country.
Community organizations in Los Angeles will hold a march on September 22 for immigration reform and are calling for Obama to halt deportations. At least 1,400 undocumented immigrants are deported daily leaving more than 400,000 families without a mother or father as the main income wage earners annually. 

Eight Unit Building Vacated After Upper Back Porch Collapsed Injuring Two

Department of Neighborhood Services boarded up the building after a back cement porch on the fourth floor collapsed causing two lower porches to also collapse all the way to the ground floor.

By H. Nelson Goodson
September 20, 2013

Milwaukee, WI - A southside eight apartment unit at the 2400 block of W. National Ave. on the southwest corner was vacated and boarded up after a 42-year-old Spanish speaking repairman just after 4:00 p.m. fell through multiple back porch cement sections. The injured repairman man was doing some repairs on the fourth floor porch when the cement floor collapsed and went through the other floors below him ending on the ground level.
A 14-year-old girl who was taking out trash and was returning inside with a friend got crushed by some falling debris. The friend was not injured. 
Both the repairman and girl were reported with none serious injuries and were taken to Froedtert Hospital for treatment, according to police.
The City of Milwaukee Department of Neighborhood Services has vacated, closed and boarded up the eight unit building and has temperarily condemned the building. Several dozen residents were being helped by the Red Cross with a temperary place to stay.
No word, when the tenants can go back into the building and remove their belongings, if it is condemn. 
No record of current repair permits have been confirmed, according to city officials. The repairman might have been doing some repair work without city permits.
Inspectors have gone through the building to see, if it was safe to let people back in to the building.
The aging building had at least 40 building code violations in the last five years and had also received an order to fix several back porch stairwell metal columns, according to city records.


Photo: HNG/HNNUSA

That Losing Summer At The Box Office ... J. D. Longstreet

That Losing Summer At The Box Office   ...   J. D. Longstreet
That Losing Summer At The Box Office
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
******************

Hollywood has experienced one losing film after another this summer.  It has been expensive, and it has been embarrassing, as well.  Millions upon millions of dollars were pumped into those major movies and still -- they flopped.

A couple of things:  First, the writing of late has been, in this scribe's opinion, lousy!  So-called "block-buster" movies based on comic book characters, no less, and remakes of past hits, plus remakes of remakes.

The lack of imagination, and creativity is bad enough, but add to that the political activity of the "stars" and it has, in my opinion, soured the audience toward Hollywood's products and that includes the actors and actresses who spout their half-baked Marxist ideas on screen and stage in the middle of a performance for which the audience has just paid good, hard-earned money in hopes on being entertained not indoctrinated.       

 I am sick and tired of Hollywood’s elite “emoting” with their foolish and totally unsound ideas on American politics.  More often than not, their “pearls of wisdom” are counterfeit, and much less than wise, quite often exposing the unfathomable depths of their ignorance of the representative republic the forefathers planned for us.

To attend a paid performance of one of these Hollywood pundits and, right in the middle of the performance you PAID for, have them rattle off their leftist views of the Republican Party is in the poorest of tastes.  But -- whoever thought taste and class was present in the culture of Hollywood.

Have you noticed how their political diatribes bear remarkable likenesses to rehashed communist propaganda film dialogue from the 1950’s?   Is that a coincidence?  I doubt it.

Senator Joe McCarthy tried to warn America that Hollywood was crawling with commies way back in the 1950's.  He was destroyed by the equally left-leaning mainstream media over six decades ago.  

The thing is, you see, once I have heard one of these "stars," these intellectual lightweights, spout their hate of Conservatives it is never out of my mind when viewing, or listening, to them practice their art. 

An actor who spews hatred for conservatives, or for our constitution, or our capitalist system, for instance, and then asks me to accept him as the character he is currently portraying on the big screen, or the TV screen, is asking me to do the impossible.  I cannot do it.  I can only suspend my disbelief so far ... and then only for short periods.  

I wonder: is all this contributing to their gigantic losses at the box office?   Have the leftist actors felt it in their pocketbooks yet?  Oh, they will.  And then their little secret will be exposed:  They ARE capitalists after all!  

The pain caused by the loss in revenue will be even more intense amongst those who put up the money for the production of those terribly expensive flops.  The question then arises, how long will the money men, and money women, of Hollywood put up with the loose lips of the left wing activists among the acting community of Hollywood?

Many of us, myself included, will not watch a movie, even on TV, in which a left wing activist is starring.  I cannot get past their “air headedness”.   I mean these are people hired to play a part because they are good at “pretending” they are somebody else.  How do we know when the acting, the pretending, stops and the real person, if there is one there, steps forward?

I am convinced that one of the reasons the Liberal left is so prominent in Hollywood is the tendency of liberals to base their politics on feelings, on emotions, not fact and reality.  Actors, you see, make a living emoting, using their emotions and playing upon the ‘feelings’ of the public. It, then, is the most natural thing in the world for emoting actors to hook-up with a political party of emotions.  One could hardly be surprised at that.

In the days of the Hollywood studios, actors who made their politics known, let alone publicly supported one political party, or the other, would quickly find himself, or herself, without a contract and out on the street.  Why -- because it hurts business.  Plain and simple.

So, next time Hollywood wants to realistically look at why their revenue from motion pictures is down, maybe they ought to take a look at the political causes with which their actor’s associate themselves, and then compare the actor’s politics with the politics of the majority of Americans.  They will be surprised.  We won’t… but they will.

“Freedom of Speech”, they yell!  Of course it is.  They have the freedom to speak anything they want.  But … I have the freedom not to listen, and, in the case of the actors, not to buy a ticket to one of their movies.

It seems a lot of Americans are exercising that last “right” these days.

© J. D. Longstreet - 2013

Pop Quiz: Bernanke vs. Berezniki

Pop Quiz: Bernanke vs. Berezniki
Which one has the more unstoppable sinkhole policy?

Bernanke:

January 6, 2010
Obama Backs Bernanke for Likely 2nd Term - CBS News

The Fed is all but certain to keep its key bank lending rate - it affects a wide range of rates on consumer loans - at a record low near zero when the meeting concludes on Wednesday.

It is also expected to renew a pledge to hold rates at record lows for an "extended period" to nurture the recovery. Economists think that means rates will stay where they are for at least six more months.

At least 6 months! And in hindsight, give or take 5 years or more! Hurray!

Berezniki:

13 of the Biggest, Strangest, and Most Devastating Sinkholes on Earth

2. Berezniki

In Soviet Russia, the ground moves you. Berezniki’s sinkhole began in 1986 and just grows worse with each passing year. It’s unstoppable. Currently it’s over 200m deep, 80m long and 40m wide. In case you’re thinking “Berezniki? Who cares?” you should know that 10% of the world output of potash comes from this area, and the sinkhole is very close to destroying the mine’s sole rail line.

Unstoppable! Very close to destroying the mine's sole rail line! Hurray!

Too much sarcasm?

Real Retail And Food Services Sales per Retail Employee (Musical Tribute)


Click to enlarge.



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Pope Francis Continuing to Signal Change Says "Church can't 'interfere' with gays"...

Pope Francis Continuing to Signal Change Says "Church can't 'interfere' with gays"...
by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny


"We must meet one another doing good. 'But I don't believe Father, I am an atheist!' But do good: we will meet one another there." Pope Francis

The behemoth that is the Catholic Church, with all its unbending rigid dogmatic principles just might be undergoing historic changes. Pope Francis is continuing to signal a much greater openness and tolerance in general. He is looking more and more like the right Pope at the right time to attempt reform within the Church hierarchy. Read the full story at CNN.

Via: Memeorandum

Real Annualized International Trade per Capita


Click to enlarge.

Let's zoom in for a closer look.


Click to enlarge.

Sorry, China. It looks like we're pretty much done being your exponential growth engine.

August 11, 2013
China Faces Years Of Slowing GDP Growth, Top Strategist Says

“We need to get used to the fact that the boom is over,” said Andy Rothman, China macro strategist at brokerage CLSA. “The days when you could just roll out of bed and make money, or the days when you could expect that the growth rate for most things was going to be faster next year — that’s done. We should expect that for the foreseeable future, every year on average, most major economic data points are going to be growing more slowly.”

It could never happen here of course. This is America. Thanks to perma-ZIRP, booms will never end again! Hurray!



Don't mind us we're just spilling our guts
If this is love I don't wanna be hanging by the neck
Before an audience of death

See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Fall Colors -NYFW-


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An autumnal palette color I was wearing on my first day at NYFW and probably the only day when I wore a sweater jacket, after that the weather become hotter and hotter.
Secretly I'm waiting for regular  Fall days and also to wear sweaters and booties... Don't you?



                                                                                       Jacket: Zara/ option Here 
                                                                                       Dress: Zara/ similar style Here and Here 
                                                                                       Clutch: vintage/ option Here
                                                                                       Heels: Miu Miu/ different color Here 
                                                                                       Bracelets: c/o COOEE.se
                                                                                       Sunglasses: Foster Grant/ great option Here


                             

Bodies Not Cold Yet -- Left Cries: "Take Their Guns!" ... J. D. Longstreet

Bodies Not Cold Yet -- Left Cries: "Take Their Guns!"   ...   J. D. Longstreet
Bodies Not Cold Yet -- Left Cries: "Take Their Guns!"
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
****************
 "One of the ordinary modes, by which tyrants accomplish their purposes without resistance, is, by disarming the people, and making it an offense to keep arms." -- Constitutional scholar and Supreme Court Justice Joseph Story, 1840
***************

Will it never end, indeed(?! ) ... I mean, the Left's relentless drive to violate the constitutional rights of the American citizen.

The bodies from the shooting at the Washington Navy Yard were not even cold yet, the smoke had not entirely cleared the air,  and there was Senator Diane Feinstein, a "progressive" (21st century code-word for Marxist)  from California, railing amid the metaphorical flow of verbal crocodile tears:  "When is enough, enough?" 

Oh woe, Oh woe, Senator.  When, indeed, is enough, enough?  Believe me when I proclaim to you, and your cohorts on the left, we have HAD far MORE than enough of your assault on our constitutional rights. 

On the other hand, it is close enough to the 2014 elections that it might serve a good purpose for you democrats to begin beating the drum AGAIN for gun control. 

Americans have had a belly-full of "you people" and we are currently on the cusp of driving you from power in Washington.  That little added "umph" of attempted gun control could do the trick for us and give us a real chance to fumigate the halls of Congress of the stench of Marxism without you leftists in it continually creating a veritable fog of noxious communist propaganda.

So, go ahead, Senator.  Give us more political ammo to use against you, and I assure you, madam,  WE SHALL! 

Why, oh why, after learning that the people committing these awful gun crimes are mentally ill, does the government insist on blaming perfectly sane law-abiding citizens for the erratic behavior of the mentally ill? 

You want to stop the gun massacres?  Get the mentally ill off the streets and into secure hospitals where they can be treated -- and the public can be safe from them.  It is that simple.

BUT --- The gun control advocates won't even discuss this simple solution. Very much like "profiling," somehow, the left sees treating the mentally ill as a violation of THEIR constitutional rights.  How convoluted is that?   
They're throwing around that phrase "common sense" again.  Have you noticed?  Commonsense gun control, restrictions/regulations, etc. 

Look, anytime the left tosses around the words "common sense" Americans had better grab their guns and trot quickly to the barricades.

Common sense?  Come on, folks!  At the same time that thirteen bleeding dead bodies are lying on the ground beneath a blue haze of gun smoke, our fearless(?)/feckless President goes on national TV to ... make another political speech ...  a POLITICAL SPEECH, while Americans lay dead and wounded just a mile and a half from the room in which he was speaking!  THAT'S common sense???

That's callousness. 

That's not caring. 

That's hard-hearted -- not to mention that
it is politically DUMB!


"In the wake of the shooting at the Navy Yard, Obama spokesman Jay Carney said the president is implementing executive actions and reiterated his commitment to strengthening gun laws, including expanding background checks to sales online and at gun shows."

“The president supports, as do an overwhelming majority of Americans, common-sense measures to reduce gun violence,” Carney said.
   SOURCE:  http://washington.cbslocal.com/2013/09/17/carney-obama-implementing-executive-actions-following-navy-yard-shooting/

Two things I'd like you to notice from Mr. Carney's words above:  "Overwhelming Majority of Americans" and "Common-sense measures."   Now.  Ask yourself ... where is that overwhelming majority of Americans Carney speaks of -- and -- by whose definition are the intended gun control "measures" "common-sense?"
Think about this for a moment:  The Ship Yard Shooting took place in a city with arguably the strictest gun control laws of any city in the United States.  The Ship Yard, itself,  is another gun free zone within that city.  And yet, 13 people lie shot to death.  Remember, the shooting did not stop until GOOD MEN  WITH GUNS STOPPED IT!

The tsunami of calls for "common sense gun control measures" began, predictably, as if already planned and ready for dissemination. If one did not know better, one would think gun control advocates had really prepared, in advance,  this hyper reaction to the shooting at the Ship Yard.
 
It is all Bovine Scatology carefully designed to  make the weak-minded amongst us feel good about giving up their God-given rights to the government.

It is typical of the political left to play upon the emotions of the electorate.  Their entire platform depends upon manipulating the emotions of the people.   That's why, when the left is in power in America, the country is maintained on the very edge of one crisis, or another, every single day.  That continued assault on the human psyche weakens the ability to focus and think logically.  And, as we should all know by now, LOGICAL thinking will destroy the left's politics every time.

NOW you understand why America lurches from one near disaster to another during periods in which the Democratic Party is in control, marginally, or otherwise.  If those crises do not create themselves, well, the left is not above assisting in the creation of such situations.  A sort of "tail wagging the dog" kind of thing, don't you know.

Don B. Kates, writing on statistical patterns in gun crime said this:  "...Virtually never are murderers the ordinary, law-abiding people against whom gun bans are aimed. Almost without exception, murderers are extreme aberrants with lifelong histories of crime, substance abuse, psychopathology, mental retardation and/or irrational violence against those around them, as well as other hazardous behavior, e.g., automobile and gun accidents."

So, for gun owners, it is back to the barricades once more.  It appears we are doomed to fighting the same battle over and over again.  We have no choice,  for the moment we let down our guard, we will no longer be citizens.  We will be unarmed subjects.

© J. D. Longstreet

The Taperworm Hungers!


Click to enlarge.



I am Sinistar.
Beware, I live.
Run! Run! Run!
Beware, coward.
Run, coward.
Raaaaarrrrrrr!
I hunger.

I'm experiencing a strange feeling of déjà vu.

September 18, 2013
Bernanke Is Terrified Of Higher Mortgage Rates And The Debt Ceiling Debate

In his post-FOMC press conference, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made it clear that he had lost control of the market, causing a tightening of financial conditions that directly hit the highly supported housing market through higher mortgage rates.

See Also:
The Tapeworm Hungers!

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: 30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate (YoY)

Real Net Personal Interest Income Growth


Click to enlarge.

That's a fairly impressive downdraft (in blue), especially if one considers just how much money is out there to earn interest.

1. ZIRP once helped borrowers, especially long-term borrowers with good credit who managed to refinance their homes at much lower interest rates. I'm not so sure it is helping many now though. Credit card interest rates have certainly not fallen much in the last 10 years.

2. ZIRP continues to hurt savers, especially short-term savers who patiently wait for the end of ZIRP.

“Patience – A minor form of despair, disguised as a virtue.” - Ambrose Bierce, The Unabridged Devil's Dictionary

Let me assure you that I generally have plenty of patience and despair, but not nearly enough to sit in treasury bills long-term. I've been a permabear since 2004. In hindsight, sitting in treasury bills would have been an awful plan.

From what I can see, the "average" American currently earns 5x more interest than he/she pays. As monetary economic stimulus goes, at some point ZIRP could easily hurt savers far more than it helps borrowers. We may have already reached that point, just like Japan before us.

As a side note, I really don't think the typical American is personally earning 5x more interest than what is paid. Toss a few billionaires into any party and the average starts looking pretty good. That's not enough to make the typical American rich though, unless streams of cash spill out of pockets as the billionaires wander around the room. You know, trickle-down economics and what not. Cash falling out of billionaire pockets is about as likely to happen as the end of ZIRP, at least in the near-term.

I will end here with 100% certainty. I am a long-term retired saver and the Fed's zero interest rate policy is forcing me to spend less than I otherwise would, lest my nest egg run dry before I die of old age. It's not a complaint. It's simply a fact. Spending less is a rational reaction to lower real yields. That's not what the Fed intended me to do of course. Call it an unintended consequence. This uncertain world is full of them.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Michigan State Government, ban on same-sex marriage helps 'regulate sexual relationships'...

Michigan State Government, ban on same-sex marriage helps 'regulate sexual relationships'...
by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny


In yet another display of lunacy the state of Michigan under Governor Rick Snyder is set to argue the state's constitutional amendment that defines marriage (between one man and one women) and it's ban on same sex joint adaptions are necessary. Apparently to preserve the state's interest to "regulate sexual relationships" and ensure population growth.

The brief filed by Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette's office states that Michigan and other states that define marriage as the union of a man and a women have determined it appropriate for the state "to regulate sexual relationships between men and women so that the unique procreative capacity of such relationships benefits rather than harms society."

The brief goes on to say that before Massachusetts 2004 State Supreme Court decision which enforced the right to same sex marriage in the Commonwealth "it was commonly understood that the institution of marriage owed its very existence to society’s vital interest in responsible procreation and childrearing."

I guess the idea of same sex marriage and same sex couples raising children continue to be an abomination to many who feel these relationships pose a threat to the very fabric of society. What is ironic to me is the ones decrying the intrusion of government into lives of individuals the loudest seem all too ready and willing to use the government to enforce intrusion into the private lives and affairs of others.

Did I mention these government officials and most who support them are, Republicans/Conservatives.

The story from Michigan Live.com

LANSING -- Attorneys representing Gov. Rick Snyder and the state of Michigan in a case alleging the state's ban on same-sex joint adoptions violates the U.S. Constitution have argued the state's constitutional amendment defining marriage is necessary to "regulate sexual relationships" to encourage population growth.

The statement was made as part of a brief opposing a motion by April DeBoer and Jayne Rowse asking a federal judge to grant a judgment in their favor.

DeBoer and Rowse, a Hazel Park couple who challenged the state's same-sex marriage ban as part of their challenge to state adoption laws, contend that the ban violates the federal guarantee of due process in the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

In the brief, attorneys from Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette's office say that Michigan and other states which define marriage as being "one man, one woman" have done so "to regulate sexual relationships between men and women so that the unique procreative capacity of such relationships benefits rather than harms society."

The brief also says that prior to a 2004 Massachusetts court decision enforcing a right to same-sex marriage in that state, "it was commonly understood that the institution of marriage owed its very existence to society’s vital interest in responsible procreation and childrearing."

The state also argues in the brief that the couple should be seeking to overturn the ban through a ballot initiative rather than through the courts. "If Michigan’s definition of marriage is to be changed, and if joint unmarried adoptions are to be authorized, both should be done by the people of the State of Michigan," the brief states.

A hearing is set for October 16 in U.S. District Court in Detroit to rule on the couple's motion as well as a motion filed by the state seeking judgment in its favor.

More commentary HERE.

Via: Memeorandum

The Monetary Policy No-Fly Zone (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the 10-year moving average of the natural log of M2 money stock times the 10-year treasury yield. I'm using the natural log so exponential growth is seen as a straight line.


Click to enlarge.

Note that there are two long-term trends in the chart and they are both straight lines. Technically speaking, the transition between the two represents an exponential trend failure. Here is a chart of the data before the natural log is applied to more clearly show that failed exponential growth trend.

As seen in the chart, this "new and improved" modern economy can apparently only tolerate a continually expanding money supply *and* a continually declining 10-year treasury yield.

On the one hand, it was a therefore a mistake to enter the no-fly zone during the last 10 years. The attempt was shot down in flames as we entered the Great Recession. On the other hand, it was also a mistake to let the price of oil rise so much. It helped us attain a Great Recession too. Can you say caught between Iraq and a hard place? Pun intended. Two mistakes can't make a right here, especially since both mistakes cannot be made at the same time! The Fed must choose one or the other.

M2 is currently $10,790 billion. It would therefore currently take a 10-year treasury yield of just 2.29% to hit the median of 5.51.

LN(10,790 x 2.29%) = 5.51

On that first hand again, any rate above 2.29% on the 10-year treasury risks making a similar mistake. And on the other hand, there goes oil again. Is it any wonder that the Fed is running scared today? Two mistakes! Must choose one!

“This FOMC edition feels less dovish than it does outright scared,” Mr. Green says.

I would suggest that the 10-year treasury could easily yield under 2.29% again in the not too distant future, or we'll die trying (recession). And if the price of oil rises more, we'll die trying anyway. It's only a matter of time.

The vast majority of "financial experts" felt that 3% and higher was a sure thing. In sharp contrast, I was and am a long-term believer in The Long-Term Death of Real Yields theory. It's just going to get harder and harder to make money off of money.

This economy continues to suffer under the illusion of prosperity. This is one of the weakest recoveries we've ever had and yet all I hear about on the TV is how resilient we are. It reminds me so much of the 2003 to 2007 era. Pardon my language, but three more years of Goldilocks my @$$.

What will the next recovery look like if/when we enter the next recession during ZIRP? I'd say the odds definitely favor it so perhaps it is best to think up answers now rather than when it is happening. As they say, if one must panic at least panic first. And when might hindsight show was a great time to panic? Hard to say. Nothing brings more illusionary confidence than a Fed running scared.



Once again, just opinions. This is not investment advice.

See Also:
The Inflationary No-Fly Zone

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart