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A New Political Party Aborning?
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
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© J. D. Longstreet

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The future's too bright.

Merriam Webster: Pretension


This post inspired by robj's comment at Calculated Risk.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product

Click to enlarge.

Monthly retail and food services sales per capita is shown in blue.
Annual median household income is shown in red.

Please factor in that neither series is adjusted for inflation. You are therefore looking at the raw data in all its grandeur.

We must be incredibly optimistic as a society. I say this because the following is what Google offers me as search results.

1. 8,870,000 search results for "Pent-Up Demand"
2. 230 search results for "Pent-Down Demand"

As for the latter, my blog currently holds the top search result. Hurray! And with this post, I'm looking to expand my dominance of the "Pent-Down Demand" analysis market! Most excellent! Sigh.



If you're happy and you know it, pent demand!
If you're happy and you know it, pent demand!
If you're happy and you know it
And you really want to show it
If you're happy and you know it, pent demand!

Next up... Stomping our feet and turning around! Woohoo!

September 5, 2013
August Retail Sales Shy of Hopes


Where have we heard that before?

"The reason those guys don't want to report same-store sales is because they're in a lot of trouble. They have a broken business model, and they would sorely wish analysts would pay less attention to what they're doing. They're trying to hide." - Peter Morici, 2008

And on that note, I am officially reducing my short-term inflation outlook (as seen in the upper left corner of my blog) to boringly flat just in time for the 2013 Christmas season. It's just a gut feel, nothing more.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

September 29, 2013
Golden era of farm prosperity in Iowa, nation at an end

The following chart shows the median price of new homes sold divided by the median household income.


Click to enlarge.

HUD: Affordable Housing

Who Needs Affordable Housing?

More people than you might realize.

May 2013
REALTOR: Not a High-Wire Act


Parabolically increasing home prices relative to income for the win! It's the greater fool's greatest tool!

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The following chart shows the median household income of Washington, D.C. divided by the median household income of the United States.


Click to enlarge.

Exponential growth! It's only a matter of time before our "investment" pays off! Genius!

The Next Biggest Boom Towns In The U.S.


Let's all move to Columbia! Yes!

And when I say Columbia, I don't mean the state capital of South Carolina. There's some sort of "plague" going on there. For the love of all that is holy, stay away!

September 19, 2013
Declining income, rising poverty plague SC economy


I also don't mean that we should move to the Mall of Columbia. That's just silly talk. We don't need to live in a Banana Republic quite yet. Give it a few more years!

And let's not forget the country of Columbia. It would make a very poor substitute for the flourishing District of Columbia.

So when it comes to Columbias, one stands above the rest. Stick with what works! The future's so bright there that I gotta wear shades!

See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost, to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!

It's here America!

The anticipated government shutdown.

With 31+ hours to shutdown the melodrama continues.

And, America braces itself to deal with the result of the childish temper tantrums and Green Egg and Ham infantile pastime of one Senator Cruz from the Lone Star state.

The networks, infatuated with the melodrama continue to repeat, ad nausea the same talking points from the Sheeples of BOTH infantile parties and their childish leadership.

As expected the American people, not to mention the entire world financial markets, are held hostage as a result of infants crapping their pants in delight over childish BS.

America grew up.

Its politician and ELECTED representatives and LEADERS fail to understand what exactly maturity means.

Such is the condition that exists when idiots enamored with the thought of wielding power over the people is recognized in the minds of those without reasoning ability.

America... You have gotten EXACTLY that which you have chosen, either through design or ignorance. In either case the result is the same and no one has the right to complain or bitch about the reality they have chosen for their country and themselves.

Worth Considering - Americans like the idea of representative democracy, but they have little liking for the practices, institutions and politicians that make representative democracy work. Nor are they tolerant of the processes, which require debate (viewed as bickering), compromise (viewed as selling out), advocacy (viewed as posturing) and stalemate (viewed as obstructionism). They do not trust government to do the right thing, they are cynical about elected public officials who are supposed to represent their interests, and they feel that the legislative system as it operates is wide open to special interests but not to the public. The political system gets low marks from most Americans.

There are many reasons for these negative public perceptions. The virtues of representative democracy are not self-evident. The processes in Congress, state legislatures and city councils are messy and difficult to fathom, even to insiders. In their efforts to draw readers, the media focus on conflict and overemphasize negative events. All too often, politicians run against the political system and the people in it. At the same time, significant societal changes have taken place, and culture wars have broken out in American society. Although expectations of what government can do have risen, notions about why and how government should perform have become more heterogeneous and conflicting.

The accumulation of negatives fuels public discontent and disenchantment. No particular incident, specific charge, single newspaper story or television portrayal makes a huge difference, but years of battering have eroded support for the political system. This climate of cynicism is deadly to representative democracy. It hinders the recruitment to elective public office of talented and concerned people, many of whom no longer will risk having their characters assailed and their reputations damaged. It weakens the bonds between citizens and their representatives. It makes consensus more difficult to achieve, because trust is in such short supply. It hinders steady and pragmatic solutions, while encouraging posturing, scapegoating and quick fixes. It erodes the representative assemblies that have served us remarkably well for more than 300 years. It puts our system of representative democracy in peril, even though we have nothing else we would rather have in its place, and nothing that would serve nearly as well.

This publication offers engaged Americans an alternative view of representative democracy by providing a more accurate and positive perspective. It is based on six operating principles of representative democracy as it is practiced throughout the nation. The first two principles focus on representatives as individuals, and the latter four emphasize representation as a system. The treatment of each operating principle includes both a discussion of what the public perceives and a discussion of how politicians and institutions work.

The authors of this guide believe that the system and its participants work well-by no means perfectly, but well-and better than any realistic alternative. Of course, there are problems with legislatures and with legislators that need attention. Of special concern are the conduct of political campaigns, the business of campaign finance and conflicts of interest, partisanship and incivility in the legislature. These concerns should not be taken lightly. Yet, they should not detract from an appreciation of a system that, while currently the envy of the world, is misperceived and unappreciated here at home.

Perhaps, just maybe, if we are lucky, our elected officials will see themselves and recognize they are failing. If not... VOTE THE BASTARDS AND BITCHES OUT OF OFFICES.

The Zombie drug from Russia is also known as Krokodil or desomorphine.

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For the love of all that is holy, please stop depositing so much cash in the banks. They've already got the Holy Grail. They certainly don't need yours!

Some of us would like to actually earn more than 0.49% on 5-year CDs again. So stop already!


2.47% total return in 5 years? I say bury that cash instead! What's the worst that could happen?

The Worst that Could Happen


Do *not* weasel your investment! Bury it deep! Cash makes a horrible mulch!

This is gardening advice and as such should not be confused with investment advice.

See Also:
Hyperinflation Theories Poned Again

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

"Declaration" by John Trumbull depicting the signing of the Declaration of Independence.

As Americans watch and witness the evolution of our democratic republic as it locks itself into partisan ideological positions that may result in the shutdown of our government and have far reaching global economic implications I found some solace, and hope, in the following article. I have reproduced it here (in full) in the hopes that authentic modern day Patriots will rally around our defining principles and "do the right thing."

By James Roger Sharp - This year marks the 237th anniversary of our revolution and independence. And while we celebrate this milestone, it should not be lost sight of that the American Revolution is universally viewed as one of the most extraordinary and significant events in modern history. A major catalyst for revolutions throughout the globe, it made the United States the very symbol of human freedom.

As Americans seemed to be moving inexorably toward independence in 1776, they shared a strong sense that they were seeking something that had far greater significance than simply gaining independence from England. Rather, they saw themselves as inventing a new kind of society based upon the sovereignty of the people and their natural rights to freedom--a society that would be the envy and goal of all peoples on earth.

In a bold and electrifying document, the Declaration of Independence, our Founders proclaimed to the world that "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness."

Clearly, the Revolution did not accomplish all of these lofty aspirations immediately. Millions of Africans remained in slavery until the Civil War, and women and minorities are still fighting to become fully equal partners with men. But, as incomplete as the Revolution was in the fulfillment of its remarkable idealism, it was the impetus for a process of change that is still working itself out within our society to fulfill those noble objectives.

Abraham Lincoln later eloquently summed up the meaning of the Declaration when he said that the Founders had not intended to declare "all men equal in all respects." But rather had meant to "set up a standard maxim for free society, which should be... constantly looked to, constantly labored for, and even though never perfectly attained, constantly approximated, and thereby constantly spreading and deepening its influence, and augmenting the happiness and value of life to all people of all colors everywhere."

But how successful are we in the twenty-first century in measuring up to the expectations of our Founders? Are we "constantly" laboring for and "spreading and deepening" the values and beliefs of the Declaration?

In a number of categories, we seem to be falling short.

For example, wealth is more unequally divided today than in the age of our Founders. At the time of the American Revolution, the wealthiest 10 percent owned approximately 45 percent of the wealth. In this century the top 10 percent own roughly 66 to 70 percent of it. Furthermore, it is estimated that the United States now has a greater gap between rich and poor than any other western democracy.

This disparity undoubtedly would have alarmed Associate Justice of the Supreme Court Louis D. Brandeis (1916-1939). He is reported to have said that "We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both."

In addition, our political system often appears to be a closed, isolated and stultified one run by politicians more concerned with being reelected than carrying out their governing responsibilities.

Despite the historic low approval rating of Congress, incumbents have become nearly unbeatable. With their name recognition and money from lobbyists and other special interests acting as formidable deterrents to challengers, incumbents were reelected to their seats in Congress 94.1 percent of the time in the 22 years from 1988 to 2010.

Furthermore, state legislatures redraw congressional district boundaries every 10 years to take into account new census data and carve up states in such a way as to almost guarantee a solid majority in those districts for one party or another.

This gerrymandering aggravates the undemocratic non-competitiveness of Congress. In the 2012 election, for example, Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives won a national plurality of 1.4 million votes. Despite this, the Republicans--because of the congressional redistricting after the 2010 Census--retained their 234 to 201 majority in the House. Only one other time since World War II has one party won a plurality of the vote, without gaining the majority in the House of Representatives.

The 4th of July, then, is perhaps the best time for each of us to take stock of our commitment to our Founders' vision of a society dedicated to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness for all.

It is obvious that we have made enormous progress as a nation since the American Revolution. We are still the beacon of hope for oppressed peoples throughout the world. But, there cannot be a relaxed resting on our laurels attitude, but rather the safeguarding of our democracy requires a jealous and vigilant guarding of our democratic principles and a constant striving to bring our society in harmony with the ideals of the Declaration of Independence, which was and continues to be the emblematic credo that defines us as a nation.

The following words of Louis Brandeis are making a lot of sense in our current climate of believing the reciting Dr. Seuss' "Green Eggs and Ham" on the floor of the United States Senate should be considered representative on 21st century American beliefs.

'We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both.'

Good night and good luck America. We're certainly going to need it.

Via: Memeorandum

September 26, 2013
China investment opportunities today: Jim Rogers


Based on what I've heckled about China on this blog in the past, I'd definitely be throwing my hands up if I moved to China to learn Chinese. I'd be surrendering to the totalitarian authorities. No doubt about it. Sigh.

So yeah, if forced to choose, I'd prefer to go to Denmark to learn Danish' or something.

I consider myself very fortunate to have been born in America. This freedom allows me to publicly state that I believe Jim Rogers is a total doofus. This is not his first quote of the day. He's always full of inspiring "sarchasmic" witticisms!

This post inspired by "The High Price of Digging Up Dirt in China" as seen at Credit Bubble Stocks.

Although the report comes originally from Maariv, an Israeli paper notorious for being far left and their reports have been far from the truth, I submit this to you, my truth seeker, so you can make an honest assessment.

Some Israeli government analysts believe Iran already has at least one nuclear bomb, an Israeli journalist wrote in an article published Friday.

Shalom Yerushalmi, writing in the national daily Maariv, said that “government security sources up to date on development in Iran,” told him recently that Tehran has crossed all points of no return and already has its first nuclear weapon, and maybe more.

The report marks the first time a government official has been quoted saying Iran already has a nuclear weapon. No sources in the piece were named.

The information, if true, would mark a major shift in international relations and would be a game changer in terms of a regional power balance.

“It’s too late for Israel [to prevent an Iranian bomb]. Iran has crossed all the borders and all the constraints, and it has a first nuclear bomb in its possession, and maybe more than that,” Yerushalmi writes, basing himself on what he says is the assessment he heard this week from state security sources. ”We are facing a historic change in the strategic balance of forces in the region.”

He then quotes a source who he says is deeply familiar with what he calls the relentless war against the Iranians. “This is no longer about how to prevent a bomb,” the source is quoted saying, “but about how to prevent its being launched, and what to do if and when.”

Yerushalmi, still basing himself on the anonymous security sources’ assessment, goes on to compare the current behavior of Iran’s Supreme leader Ali Khamenei, and new President Hasan Rouhani, in their interactions with the West, to a soccer coach at the end of a hard-fought match which he knows he has now won. The Iranian leadership is behaving with the air of “those who have achieved their target, and therefore can today afford to be more generous and to offer new (self-serving) messages.” The Iranian leadership can afford to be friendlier, he writes, “because victory has been secured.”

Maariv led its Friday paper with a photograph of a smiling Rouhani, alongside the headline, “What’s hiding behind the smile,” and a sub-headline quoting the security sources saying Iran now has “at least one bomb.” It then adds that most in the security establishment, however, still believe that this “nightmare scenario has not yet been realized.”

While most Western countries believe Iran’s nuclear program is intended for military purposes, officials in Israel, the US and elsewhere say Tehran has yet to “break out” toward a bomb, a process that could take over a year.

Iran, which on Thursday agreed to renewed talks with world powers on curbing its nuclear program, says its program is for peaceful purposes.

On Friday, Iranian and UN officials met to discuss whether to resume inspections meant to determine whether Tehran worked on atomic arms, in a test of pledges by Iran’s new president to reduce nuclear tensions.

Iranian envoy Reza Najafi said in Vienna that it would be unrealistic to expect that “in just one day of meeting we can solve our problems.”

Herman Nackaerts of the International Atomic Energy Agency said only that he hoped the meeting could “intensify the dialogue.”

The UN agency wants access to a site it suspects was used to test conventional explosive triggers meant to set off a nuclear blast.

A report released last month by the IAEA said that while Iran was testing new centrifuges, which could help it eventually create a nuclear weapon, its uranium stockpile was still below the amount needed for a bomb.

“It is unlikely, at this point, that Iran could dash toward further enrichment to weapons-grade without the IAEA detecting Tehran’s activities,” Reuters quoted the Arms Control Association, a Washington-based advocacy and research group.

Israel sees an Iranian nuclear weapon as an existential threat, and Jerusalem has campaigned vigorously around the world for heavy sanctions to be placed on Iran, with a threat of military action should those fail to stop the nuclear program.

Next week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to deliver a speech at the United Nations during which he is expected to press for maintaining pressure on Iran despite a recent easing of tensions between Tehran and the West. In comments Tuesday, Netanyahu urged the world not to be “fooled” by Iran’s newly moderate rhetoric, which he said was a “smokescreen” to obscure its continued drive toward nuclear weapons.

“Israel would welcome a genuine diplomatic solution that truly dismantles Iran’s capacity to develop nuclear weapons,” Netanyahu said. “But we will not be fooled by half-measures that merely provide a smokescreen for Iran’s continual pursuit of nuclear weapons. And the world should not be fooled either.”

SOURCE

If true this would explain why Iranian President Hasan Rouhani is talking about the UN stopping the sanctions.  After all they have already gotten nuclear weapons and sanctions did not stop them.  But President Barack Hussein Obama's appeasement not only is helping Iran, he is pleased with the progress they achieved.  Along with forcing Israel into the Auschwitz Borders, Obama is well underway to appease his Muslim masters and destroy the West in the process.  For after all  Obama has been in communications with Iran, capitulating to their demands, and accepting the fact that Iran not only has a nuclear weapon, but will attack Israel with the weapon while the world stands by as they finish the job Hitler started.

Immigration judge gave Guerrero six months to find an alternative to stay in the U.S.

The following chart shows the inverse of the 10-year treasury yield. Why the inverse? At 0%, one could borrow an infinite amount of money and still pay the interest payments in full (without even breaking a sweat). When seen this way, 0% isn't a floor. It's infinity!


Click to enlarge.

Note that there has been a trend change. As seen in the difference between the red and blue exponential trend channels, the inverse is growing even faster than it once was. What does this mean? Rising interest rate environment my @$$! That's what. Just an opinion of course. Your opinion can and probably does vary.

But before you disagree, consider this. Our modern financially innovative over-leveraged society *requires* an exponentially increasing amount of leverage, lest it seize up (again). If not, please provide evidence to the contrary. I'm all ears. Further, an economy seizing up tends to be disinflationary (compared to what it was before it began to seize).

If I am right, then we better start learning Japanese economics, because that's where we are headed apparently. Welcome to the era of perma-ZIRP. And when I say perma-ZIRP, I do not mean over the next 10,000 years. It could easily be a LOT longer than most people think though. For savers looking for a relatively safe return, I expect the beatings to continue until morale improves. It's one reason I have not been scared about locking in long-term interest rates whenever the opportunity presented itself.



This is not investment advice. It's just the opinion of a perma-bear. That said, who honestly believes that the hangover is passing? We're not just drinking a hair of the dog that bit us. We're attempting to drink the whole frickin' dog again. Good luck on that one long-term!

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

American Exceptionalism Diluted by Illegal Immigration
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
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Throughout history governments had lied to their constituents.  It is an indisputable fact of life. We Americans have been lied to, by our government, mercilessly, since our founding.  No matter where in the world you are reading this, rest assured your government has lied to you and may, even now, be lying to you… even as you peruse this article.

Today, in America, the Big Lie the government is peddling to Americans (I mean OTHER THAN OBAMACARE!) is two fold.  The first part of the lie is:  we can’t get rid of the 12 million, or so, illegal immigrants in this country.  The second part of the Big Lie is the current immigration reform bill proposed by the Congress is NOT an AMNESTY BILL.

I mean, come on folks, don’t tell me we can’t get rid of 12 million illegal aliens in this country!    Because we can! 

Prosecute the employers who have them on their payrolls.  Put an employer in jail for hiring them!  I mean mandatory jail time, not just a fine or a slap on the wrist. 

Repeal the “Anchor Baby” law.  (Any baby born in the US is automatically an American Citizen.)  It’s being used as a loophole to bring the families of those babies across the border and onto all the welfare programs offered to American citizens.  It’s draining the American taxpayer. As a matter of fact, if there were absolutely NO government benefits for illegals in this country the flow of illegals north, across the US/Mexico border, would be cut, overnight, by at least 2/3rds!

Plus, stop sending them back to Mexico only to have them return at the earliest opportunity.  Put them in jail.  I mean, put them to work on the roads, as we do chain gangs in the Southern United States.  I don’t mean for a few months, I mean for a decade or more.  

Put a bounty on all illegal immigrants within the borders of the US.  Allow private citizens to detain them and turn them in at police stations, anywhere, and collect the bounty on the spot.  Why, my own county would have the area football stadia filled by the end of the weekend!  I expect I could take a couple of dozen into custody within a mile, or two, of my own home!  Here in NC, Tar Heels would relish an opportunity to do something constructive for their state and their country… such as rounding up these criminals.  Already, some Tar Heel store owners are publicly wearing side arms to protect themselves and their businesses, as a result of high concentrations of Illegal aliens in their neighborhoods.

We have vast areas of uninhabited desert in the southwest of this country.  Why not locate “internment camps” in those deserts, away from civilization, and intern those breaking into our country… indefinitely!

But, you say, there are 12 MILLION of them!  Well, if that figure overwhelms you, consider that when the bill before Congress is signed into law, that 12 million will be able to bring over about 4 more, per head, and you are looking at a figure closer to 50 MILLION than 12 Million!  How does that grab you, huh? 

Dear reader we are looking down the barrel of the largest transfer of wealth in the history of America! 

… And build a damn WALL (not a flimsy fence) along the US/Mexico Border replete with machine gun emplacements, land mines, and electrified barbed wire, and anything else that will stop that illegal flow into our country!  I am way past tired of being preyed upon by our neighbors to the South!  If we can patrol the borders of Middle Eastern nations, then we can damn well patrol the borders of our own country!

While I am at it, I am sick and tired of being told by the liberals to be compassionate!  Look, I’m on compassion overload! It tends to anger me when I offer a helping hand to someone only to have him, or her, lift my wallet!  So, don’t try to put a guilt trip on me about being compassionate to my fellowman!  I’m way past that!

If you are as fed up with this Bovine Scatology the politicians in Washington are trying to sell us then let them know.  And keep telling them until they understand that if they pass this legislation they will be out of a job!

Look, we all know what is behind this.  The two major political parties in this country see amnesty for the 12 million illegals, and their relatives, as 50 million new voters for the Democrats and 50 million cheap labor hands for the GOP! It’s as simply as that!  Frankly, they’re not considering what is good, or bad, for the country… they are seeing the advantage for them, and their political party, and nothing more! 

Never in my lifetime have I seen a national legislature of the US as totally disconnected from the citizens of this country as the current crop in DC.  From the White House, to the Congress, to the Supreme Court, they have managed to isolate themselves into some sort of cocoon in which they insulate themselves from contact with the Great Unwashed… you and I!  What we have… is a government out of control!  And that is totally unacceptable in America.

The latest iteration of the "AMNESTY Bill" must be stopped!  Otherwise, America, as we know it and have known it, will be no more!  This is one invasion America cannot survive. 

© J. D. Longstreet

Angelica D. Belen

Great praise! The weekend is finally upon us! I know everyone says they need a weekend to recharge, but I really need it. I have what you could call a lot of good problems - lots of work (wahoo and thank God), two big secret projects I can't share yet but they are mongo time suckers, and a new school who "encourages" a lot of participation from their Kindergarten parents. Oy people!

So because of all of that, I apologize for being patchy as of late. I might be that way for a few more weeks but hang in there with me, I promise it will be worth it.

And although all of that is true, it isn't the most exciting fess up. So I'll share another with you...


Bruce Willis was my first legit crush. And because of that crush, I was compelled to create this...work of art.

I ripped this page out of the TV Guide, (I couldn't be bothered to take the time to cut the page out - a sign of DIY sloppiness to come) and covered that horrible Cybil Shepard's face with my own. It appears that there was no tape in the house, as I made due with band-aids. (again, a sign of my future DIY prowess) And, I obviously pinned this on numerous bulletin boards by the pin marks in my nose and eye. This is me, 100%. As my husband says, "I love how shoddy your workmanship is."

A bulletin board was not its first spot though as I vividly remember taking Elmer's glue (again, I couldn't find tape) to GLUE this to my bedroom wall. Yes, you read that correctly.

So there you go. How is that for a confession? I heart Bruce Willis - circa 1986. He was a funny smart ass - what's not to love?!

It should be noted that I did move on to more legit crushes (for the time) - like a Johnny Depp, circa 21 Jump Street, life size poster and so on. I know, I do have good taste in men.

Now your turn. Who was your first crush? How did you share it? Wasn't Moonlighting a good show? And by the way, per the picture, I wonder what the 'special surprise' was!