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Colombian national was kidnapped by Mexico City police and turned over to members of a criminal organization.

Eduardo Francisco Villatoro Cano and Edgar Waldiny Herrera Villatoro

The following chart shows employees working at used merchandise stores divided by all retail trade employees.


Click to enlarge.

The "sure thing" parabolic trend has been replaced with the "sure thing" exponential trend.

The future's so bright I gotta buy used rose-colored glasses.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment

The following chart shows the number of employees at tire dealers divided by annual vehicle miles traveled.


Click to enlarge.

Since the depths of the recession, we've been hiring more and more tire dealer employees. We're seeing no increase in total miles traveled though. Think that's going to be sustainable over the long-term?

If the trend channel in blue represents rising productivity, then what does the trend in red represent? Rose-colored glasses?

Malinvestment


Based on the chart above, malinvestment at tire dealers seems more than likely to me. Where else do you suppose it is appearing? Or did I just get lucky and think this one up in isolation?

Before you answer, I started with the premise that I would see malinvestment in tire dealers. I then went looking for malinvestment. Being able to include the "tired" pun was just a bonus.

It would not surprise me if this very same malinvestment theory could be applied to retail trade in general. For example, picture retail salespeople and mall traffic. I do not have easy access to reliable mall traffic though, so this chart will have to suffice for now.

Who really believes that malinvestment based growth is sustainable over the long-term? I sure as heck don't.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment
St. Louis Fed: Total Vehicle Miles Traveled

Anyone who has read this blog more than a handful of times might suspect I have tunnel vision when it comes to design (and good cocktails). And it is true, I do. I'm not holding back on you. There isn't some big other chunk of my life that I just don't share on here. Sure, I do other things with friends and family and there are large portions of my day that involve permission slips, lunch boxes, laundry and the rare date night that make life normal. But by and large, I voluntarily consume myself with design.

And that won't change. Not ever. Given a choice, I will always and forever spend money on something for my house rather than for myself (not including child needs of course).

But as I get busier with work, I would like to start to take a bit more time for myself and give myself a facial, moisturize or even possibly, hold on to your seat here, put on makeup. Crazy talk! I've never been much of a makeup girl, just some lipstick and mascara - and always good nail polish, but as mamma gets older she could use a little spruce.


So share with me. Teach me. What products do you use? Tell me what you love? What do you recommend? What do you wear everyday? How do you treat yourself? How many questions can I ask in one paragraph?

The kidnappers allegedly raped some of the victims multiple times and others were beaten while ransom was sought from families.

Obamacare Worse Than Prohibition
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
*******************

I am fully aware that most Americans today have no clue as to the damage one federal law brought to -- and did to --  America.  I refer to Prohibition.  It was then, just as it is today with Obamacare, all brought down on our heads by a bunch of people who were absolutely, positively, convinced they knew what was best for America and they were one hundred percent determined to "fundamentally change" America.

Boy!  Did they ever change America!

It was the 18th Amendment to the Constitution.  Americans referred to it as "Prohibition" just as today the "Affordable Care Act" is referred to as "Obamacare."  Both these nick names were/are intended to demonstrate the disgust in which Americans hold both Prohibition and Obamacare.

The grossly disliked Prohibition brought changes in and to American society and brought changes in American culture that have left their mark on this country.  Many of those changes we still feel today.   Not all these changes were for the better. There was a dark side to Prohibition. A very dark side.   See,  Prohibition actually fueled the very activities it was intended to eliminate: crime and drunkenness. It was, and remains, a classic case of what happens to a country when the "Law of Unintended Consequences" reigns supreme.

Consumption of alcohol in America actually increased during Prohibition, maybe sky-rocketed would be a better description.  And then there was the escalation of crime.

Boot-legging gangs took over.  Crime bosses, such as Al Capone, became what we would call today "rock stars."  Americans wanted booze and Capone gave it to them.  Capone is reported to have said:  "I am like any other man. All I do is supply a demand."

"Looking back, we can easily see that Prohibition was a failure. But it impacted us in ways we are still feeling. It did not purify American culture, as was intended. It irrevocably poisoned it. Drinking rates shot up dramatically, the federal prison population increased 366% (Organized Crime and Prohibition), and a young generation learned how much fun it was to be rebellious. Of course, we could also say that the spirit of rebellion was a positive outcome of the Prohibition; freethinking and nonconformity are two of the hallmarks of our society. But when these ideals were applied in such a lamentable way, as they were during Prohibition, they became not blessing, but curse." SOURCE:  http://voices.yahoo.com/how-prohibition-changed-america-7307854.html

Looking realistically at the political future of America, I still believe Obamacare will eventually be repealed. But I expect the earliest that can happen will be sometime after the year 2024.

Why?  Well, common sense tells me that should she decide to run for President, Hillary Clinton will become the next President of the United States.  THAT is a given -- at least from my standpoint.

It should be understood by now that the ONLY way the GOP can be successful in repealing Obamacare is with the House and Senate AND the Oval Office in Republican hands.  The only other possibility is having enough republican votes in both the House and Senate to override a presidential veto of any bill repealing Obamacare.

Just as the 18th Amendment wreaked havoc on America so will Obamacare.  Eventually, the 21st Amendment passed and repealed Prohibition (the 18th Amendment).   But -- a great deal of pain and suffering had ensued by the time that huge mistake had been corrected.

Understand, the Progressives (the Marxists) and the democrats (the Socialists) are never going to admit they made a mistake in passing Obamacare into law.  Never.  Which means that all efforts to repeal Obamacare will be met with total dedication to preserving the law from hell by the democrats.

In the meantime, we can stand back and watch the body count from Obamacare steadily increase until it finally becomes too much for compassionate Americans to bear.   From the millions of babies murdered by abortionists (paid with taxpayer dollars) to what some have called the "Eugenic disposal" of the elderly  (In other words:  "Let 'em die."). Death will become a hallmark of Obamacare.

Like Prohibition Obamacare has never been popular with the American people.  Unlike Prohibition the law was not even read by those who voted for it in the Congress.  At least, the 18th Amendment WAS read.

We can expect feelings toward Obamacare to sour extensively in the next few months when insurance premiums and taxes begin to skyrocket.  As of today, Americans understand -- generally -- that their President lied to them.   When they suddenly realize they will not be able to continue seeing the doctor they have entrusted their health, indeed, their lives to for decades, well, then it will be brought home to them.

It required over a dozen years to repeal the 18th Amendment.   It may take even longer to repeal the profane monstrosity that is Obamacare.  It will take the combined efforts of the sane, responsible, ADULT people of America to maintain unrelenting pressure upon the lawmakers of this nation to lift the government's yoke of socialized medicine from our necks let us alone.

The rage in America is intensifying every day the jack boots of the federal government remain on or necks.

History teaches us that it is not within the character of the American people to allow an encroachment of overbearing government for very long.   It's either back off or -- backlash.

© J. D. Longstreet

by; Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny


This will probably not be my last post, although if it were it certainly would be in my best interest. At least from a health perspective.

Reason in America has quite frankly jumped the shark. Politics, and by extension government has become a thing to be disdainful of. Personally all I have left for our politicians and GOVERNMENT is utter and complete contempt.

How easily and effortlessly the media, the politicians, the representatives, the senators, the political blogs full of partisan poisonous BS, the talking heads of FOX.. MSNBC.. Limbaugh... and more, all react to the strings their puppet masters are in control of.

Winning. Preserving the long held paradigm(s) of your chosen political ideology is ALL that is important.

Whether you be conservative, liberal, progressive, conservative, reactionary, libertarian, anarchist, socialist, communist, fascist, or whatever, you dare not risk it be said that you actually consider the issues and evident problem(s) in the attempt to find the best workable solution. It MUST first and foremost fit your long held paradigm(s) and resulting template.

There is a reason the American public holds Congress, and most everyone involved in governance in such low esteem. Those entrusted with the GENERAL WILL of the PEOPLE have failed to execute their charge.

However, having said the above here comes the core issue. The slap in the face if you will. Americans, by their own CHOOSING have failed to educate themselves on issues. They have chosen to believe the the "experts", the politically connected, the meaningless polls, the most charismatic speakers, the agenda driven talking heads. In essence the American electorate has allowed itself to lead because they simply have been too busy, or too lazy to identify for themselves exactly what their own rational self interests really are.

I only ask you to THINK about the above. Put the ideological paradigm(s) and the din of the self interested politically connected puppets and shills for all political ideologies and parties aside for the moment and consider what is ACTUALLY in the best rational LONG term interests of yourself, your family, and your nation.

Unless you act in your own rational self interests and that of your family and communities you are IN FACT allowing others to act on your behalf. As we know from historical realities POWER CORRUPTS and ABSOLUTE POWER CORRUPTS ABSOLUTELY.

The choice is yours, the responsibility is yours, and the results will be yours. Individuals do not exist in a vacuum. Society is a complex social construct. As a result living in society requires compromise. Effective compromise takes work, diligence, the ability to maintain an open mind, and it means NOT expecting you will win on all your cherished paradigms.

Progress is not anti conservative. Rather it is considered and cautious progress towards advancing the improvement of society overall and over time.

As I leave for a much needed emotional hiatus:

“When it shall be said in any country in the world my poor are happy; neither ignorance nor distress is to be found among them; my jails are empty of prisoners, my streets of beggars; the aged are not in want; the taxes are not oppressive; the rational world is my friend, because I am a friend of its happiness: When these things can be said, there may that country boast its Constitution and its Government”

― Thomas Paine, Rights of Man

 One last outfit from my NYFW series!
...of course that I couldn't miss the chance to wear my Fall- Favorite- Color: Burgundy!!! (and this time I added some fuchsia instead of light pink) at NYFW.
When I found this pleated Zara skirt ( on sale)...Oh!.. I found the staple season piece!
More outfits with this skirt will be shown here on my blog this season!




                                                                                   Shirt: vintage/ option Here 
                                                                                   Skirt: Zara/ similar Here and Here 
                                                                                   Bag: Reed Krakoff/ Here
                                                                                   Shoes: c/o Sam Edelman/ Here
                                                                                   Necklace: c/o Polyvore/ similar Here 
                                                                  Sunglasses: Ralph Lauren

The Greatest Generation Shows The Way -- AGAIN!
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
*************

The government had not been shut down for an entire day and already I was enjoying the feeling of, shall we say, a certain lightness in the yoke around my neck.

Allow me to ask, please, why do we have non-essential workers and non-essential departments within the federal government in the first place?  I mean, with the national economy in the godawful shape it is in, and with the knowledge that every dollar the US government spends since last week is borrowed from some other country, not necessarily friendly to the US,  why the dickens does the government have ANYTHING that is non-essential?

Come on folks, this NOT a shutdown.  As someone has rightly noted it is only a slowdown -- if that. 

The "government shutdown" terror has been invented by the democrats and the Mainstream Media (But I repeat myself!)  We have had almost 20 "shutdowns" since the late 1970's.  What?  You didn't know that?  Well then.  There must not have been much to them, huh?

It's all Bovine Scatology!  Horse hockey! Malarkey! Baloney! 

Stop moaning and groaning for a moment and think back, and/or ask yourself what we Americans did before all these government departments and government programs. 

Well? 

The answer is:  we did pretty durn good, that's what.  (Forgive the grammar!) Heck, we actually became a world superpower without them.  WITH all that government our world superpower status is, as they say, "ebbing away."

We have become conditioned to believe all that government is necessary, when, in fact, IT ISN'T.

Heck, I'm so old I can remember that ancient time when there was no air conditioning.  Here in the Southland, where the humidity was 95% at 7 o'clock this morning, I must tell you -- it was a different world back then.  In summer, even sundown brought little relief.  Trying to sleep in a bed upon which the bed linens were damp with moisture wicked from the air around you was uncomfortable in the extreme.  But -- we managed. 

These days we can't imagine living without air conditioning. Consider the number of generations who have never known a time in their lives when there WAS no air conditioning.

Now apply this little journey down Memory Lane to our bloated government today.  The moral of the story is -- we have become conditioned to both.  Air conditioning is very nice, indeed.  But -- if we had to live without it we could.  Heck.  We DID!  
The same applies to big government.  We can live, and some say -- live better, without it.  Heck!  We DID!

Look around you.  Are YOU better off today than you were , oh, say -- five years ago?  If so, then you must be a federal employee!

We've been suckered.  We've been had.  And we did it to ourselves.  I actually don't know if there is such a psychological disorder as "self-delusional." If there is, there is an epidemic of it in America.

You know, I believe you could take a couple of kids from a 1950's high school "Economics" class, give them the task of balancing the federal budget -- and they could do it. 

That's the easy part.  What's hard is mollifying the public, which has been conditioned to believe they cannot get along without a particular government program(s) and/or government department(s).

The point of all this rambling is simply this:  We have a chance, during this so-called government shutdown, to reevaluate our enormous, bloated, over-reaching, meddling, near tyrannical government.  If we are smart we'll take advantage of this opportunity.
In the meantime, be prepared for all the weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth by millions of Americans who are simply unable to take care of themselves, or take responsibility for themselves and have, for all intents and purposes, become "wards" of the federal government.  Much like bond servants they have sold themselves into voluntary servant-hood -- or -- slavery to the state for a check once a month and an Obamaphone.  Many, if not most, of them could not care less about the welfare of the country.

But take heart!  The Greatest Generation is, once again, showing the way.  Earlier this week eighty and ninety year old veterans of World War Two crashed through the barricades around the World War Two Memorial in Washington.  They had been fenced out by the Obama Administration.

As it turned out, the Nazis couldn't stop them, the Japanese couldn't stop them and Obama, sure as hell, was not going to stop them!

Do you think for one moment that if THAT generation was in their 30's, 40's, and 50's this country would be in the shape it is in today?  Uh-uh!  Nope! Nosiree!

In the 1940's those men were at the point of Freedom's Spear.  Now, in the 21st century, in the winter, and deep winter, of their lives they volunteered for the van guard of freedom again as they show the way to take back our country.

We have to take America back from the Atlantic to the Blue Ridge, from the Blue Ridge to the Mississippi, from the Mississippi to the Rockies, and from the Rockies to the Pacific Ocean.   It CAN be done -- but -- it CANNOT be done sitting at our keyboards.  It will be done in the streets, in the highways, and in the by ways of every crossroads community, every small town, every city, every state, all the way to the Congress and the White House.

Taking America back will require the guts and determination of the men and women of the Greatest Generation. 

What say you?  The jackboots are marching again.  This time they are trampling freedom's soil.  The Greatest Generation just stepped forward AGAIN!  What about us?

As Hillel 'the Elder' (a Jewish sage from the 1st century B.C.) said:  If not us -- WHO?  If not now -- WHEN?

© J. D. Longstreet

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny


You just can't make this sh*t up. Texas Republican Governor Rick Perry obviously fails to understand how our nation of laws work. Even following a United States Supreme Court ruling that a law is Constitutional. Apparently the slightly light in the attic Governor Perry has determined that 'implementation of the national health care reform law constituted "a criminal act."' By what standard he arrived at his "scholarly" determination apparently only his God knows. He (or I) may not like or agree with the ACA but that doesn't make it criminal.

From REAL CLEAR POLITICS.

HASBROUCK HEIGHTS, N.J. -- In a campaign appearance Tuesday on behalf of New Jersey Republican Senate nominee Steve Lonegan, Texas Gov. Rick Perry said the government's implementation of the national health care reform law constituted "a criminal act."

"If this health care law is forced upon this country, the young men and women in this audience are the ones who are really going to pay the price," Perry said to a small crowd outside the Bendix Diner in this New York City suburb. “And that, I will suggest to you, reaches to the point of being a felony toward them and their future. That is a criminal act, from my perspective, to put that type of burden on them, to mortgage their future like that. America cannot stand that. America cannot accept that.”

Perry’s provocative comment came on the same day that state-based insurance exchanges, created under the 2010 Affordable Care Act, opened for enrollment.

The 2012 Republican presidential candidate, who has said that he will consider launching a second White House bid in 2016,...

One thing is for certain. If the Governor decides to run for the highest office in the land he will MOST CERTAINLY provide those who haven't jumped the shark with comic relief.

Via: Memeorandum

St. Louis Fed: Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

The following chart compares the recession probabilities seen starting in 2006 to those seen starting in 2012. I'm looking specifically for the formation of tiny cracks in the dam.


Click to enlarge.

What a structural engineer might say: "The cracks are growing again. Might want to get that fixed before it fails entirely again."

What Jamie Dimon might say: "So we're kind of confident that you'll see growth over the years as America recovers."

Reality Check: Kind of Confident = Not Confident

Nobody who is truly confident says kind of confident, just like nobody who is truly pregnant says kind of pregnant.

May 18, 2012
Recession Prediction


For what it is worth, my long-term prediction stands. That said, the odds of making it to October 2014 seem smaller now. As I have stated previously, I am not at all optimistic about this year's Christmas season.

This is not investment advice. I am being kind of sarcastic though, in honor of Jamie Dimon.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Tom Clancy Has Gone Home

A Commentary by J. D Longstreet
**************************

I feel as though I have lost a friend today.  I refer to the passing of author Tom Clancy.  Clancy died on October 1, 2013, in a Baltimore, Maryland, hospital. He was 66 years old.

I never met the man, though, I think I "sorta" did through his writings.   Clancy was a conservative and that makes him a brother.

I have spent many, many hours pouring over his books, savoring every single word.   He had a talent for painting what I call "word pictures."  His mastery of the English language was such that, using words alone, he could paint a picture on the canvas of your mind and you could view the scene he described as though it were real and in vivid color.

Many of his books were made into major movies, but none of the movies did the books justice.  Hollywood just could not produce -- on the silver screen -- what Clancy could produce in the minds of his readers.  Theirs was an impossible task.

Tom Clancy was a lifetime supporter of conservative and Republican causes in America. His books bear dedications to conservative political figures, most notably Ronald Reagan.


Oh, and Clancy was also a Life Member of the National Rifle Association since 1978.

Here are just a few of Clancy's awards and recognitions quickly gleaned from Wikipedia:

"Achievements and awards:

    Clancy was one of only three authors to have sold two million copies on a first printing in the 1990s (the other two being John Grisham and J.K. Rowling). Clancy's 1989 novel Clear and Present Danger sold 1,625,544 hardcover copies, making it the #1 bestselling novel of the 1980s.[21]

    Clancy received an honorary doctorate in humane letters and delivered the commencement address at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in 1992, and has since worked a reference to the school into many of his main works.[22]

    Clancy was an honorary Yeoman Warder of The Tower of London holding the title "Supernumerary Yeoman".[23] On the television show Ace of Cakes his wife commissioned, for his 60th birthday, a special cake in the shape of the Tower of London in acknowledgment of his status. In the episode, Tom Clancy referred to the Beefeaters as, "Just a terrific bunch of guys".

    Clancy received the Alfred Thayer Mahan Award for Literary Achievement from the Navy League of the United States in 1990.

In popular culture:

The BBC Radio 4 sitcom Deep Trouble, set on a nuclear submarine, features a humorous version of Clancy as a recurring character. He is portrayed by Ben Willbond, co-writer of the series.[24]

The British sitcom My Family has often shown the character of Ben reading a Tom Clancy book, particularly in the Series 5 episode "The Book of Love", in which Clancy's novel The Bear and the Dragon is referenced frequently.

He was mentioned in American History X at a family dinner table were Edward Norton and Edward Furlong were present. The mother of these two remarked to the father that they do not teach Tom Clancy at college.

Tom Clancy appeared in the "Diatribe of a Mad Housewife" episode of The Simpsons, wearing a cap saying "USS Iowa (BB-61)" and was tricked into giving Marge a quote for her upcoming book."  SOURCE:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Clancy

Thomas Leo Clancy Jr. was born on April 12, 1947, in Baltimore, Maryland.  He died October 1st, 2013.  His work will, hopefully, live on for centuries to come.

To say that Clancy will be missed is so, SO, inadequate.   His passing will leave a hole in the pantheon of American writers that will not be filled soon, certainly not in my lifetime.  His regard for truth and detail made his writings leap from the page.  His prescience was often reflected on the front pages of newspapers.  To say that fact was uncomfortable for leaders of many countries around the globe would be an understatement.

Clancy once said the following: 

"Nothing is as real as a dream. The world can change around you, but your dream will not. Responsibilities need not erase it. Duties need not obscure it. Because the dream is within you, no one can take it away."
– Tom Clancy

We can thank God for the talent that enabled Clancy to share his dreams with us.

© J. D. Longstreet

Sound the trumpets and let the stop watch begin, it is One Room Challenge time ladies! Whoop Whoop!

My dear friend Linda asked me to join in the fun for the second time and I am pumped and ready for some design action. Just look who I get to play in the sandbox with this time.

Four of seven formerly fired workers decided to return to work at Palermo Inc.

SUV driver rear ended biker who slowed down after an SUV driver got to close, according to YouTube video of Sunday's incident.

Click to enlarge.

The irresistible force in blue is just about to hit the immovable wall in red.

In my opinion, this "sure thing" growth "driver" is just about over. It's possible that we crash through the wall a bit, but it's not sustainable over the long-term.

October 1, 2013
Auto Sales Fell in September, Hurt by Early Labor Day


You will note that he said it goes a long way. He did not say it goes the entire way. Go figure.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart