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Maria, 6, known as "Blonde Angel", Eleftheria Dimopoulou and Christos Salis

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

As the administration acknowledges the myriad of technical problems with the healthcare exchange marketplace (and feigns anger) contractors have identified most of the problems but worry it may be weeks away before all issues are resolved. This is because the Obama Administration has been slow (remis) in issuing orders to fix the flaws.

From The New York Times.

Federal contractors have identified most of the main problems crippling President Obama’s online health insurance marketplace, but the administration has been slow to issue orders for fixing those flaws, and some contractors worry that the system may be weeks away from operating smoothly, people close to the project say.

Administration officials approached the contractors last week to see if they could perform the necessary repairs and reboot the system by Nov. 1. However, that goal struck many contractors as unrealistic, at least for major components of the system. Some specialists working on the project said the online system required such extensive repairs that it might not operate smoothly until after the Dec. 15 deadline for people to sign up for coverage starting in January...

In interviews, experts said the technological problems of the site went far beyond the roadblocks to creating accounts that continue to prevent legions of users from even registering. Indeed, several said, the login problems, though vexing to consumers, may be the easiest to solve. One specialist said that as many as five million lines of software code may need to be rewritten before the Web site runs properly.

“The account creation and registration problems are masking the problems that will happen later,” said one person involved in the repair effort.

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One major problem slowing repairs, people close to the program say, is that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the federal agency in charge of the exchange, is responsible for making sure that the separately designed databases and pieces of software from 55 contractors work together. It is not common for a federal agency to assume that role, and numerous people involved in the project said the agency did not have the expertise to do the job and did not fully understand what it entailed.

The people close to the project spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the system’s problems.

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A part of the system, hidden from users, draws data from several federal and state databases to determine if consumers qualify for coverage and then calculates the subsidies for which they may be eligible. Another part of the system sends enrollment data to insurers. Several people involved in the project say that problems like those of the last three weeks are not uncommon when software from several companies is combined into a large, complex system.

Insurance executives said in interviews that they were frustrated because they did not know the government’s plan or schedule for repairs. Insurers have found that the system provides them with incorrect information about some enrollees, repeatedly enrolls and cancels the enrollments of others, and simply loses the enrollments of still others.

Correcting those errors, specialists said, could require extensive rewriting of software code. Insurers said it could be weeks before their data and the government’s could be reconciled.

Accurate enrollment data is essential. Even if consumers bypass the federal Web site and go directly to insurance companies to sign up for coverage, the Treasury Department will still need enrollment data to pay tens of billions of dollars in subsidies promised to insurers.

Confidential government documents show that some technical fixes have been made to the federal Web site, and specialists say the site is slowly improving.

Nevertheless, disarray has distinguished the project. In the last 10 months alone, government documents show, officials modified hardware and software requirements for the exchange seven times. It went live on Oct. 1 before the government and contractors had fully tested the complete system. Delays by the government in issuing specifications for the system reduced the time available for testing. {Read the Full Story Here}

As America and her frustrations continue over the current ACA registration process glitches she can only wait and hope the process improves and the ACA itself runs smoother and better than its initial signup rollout. Only time will tell. It is after all the law of the land and it ain't going anywhere. Irrespective of the Tea Party, Cruz, Rubio, Gohmert and the rest of the minority working to find ways to insure its failure.

Via: Memeorandum

Adam Joseph Bartsch

A few months ago I was sitting on the beach, sipping a cocktail (no lie) and watching my girls giggle in the sand. Life couldn't get any better. And then my phone beeped and I saw an email from HGTV magazine. What the what?


I am over the moon to be featured in their "WOW! What Color is That?" article. And not only do I get to show off the raspberry dresser I painted for my living room, but I'm thrilled the picture is also showing off some of my favorite work from my dear friend Jennifer at The Pink Pagoda.

It is so good to get one of my little secrets off my chest and share the good news with you all! I didn't think it was coming out until Tuesday, so y'all should have seen me when I spied it at Target on Saturday night (yes, I was at Target on Saturday night). As Ice Cube would say, it was a good day.



So be sure to check it out! Wahoo!!


And to celebrate, I have a special treat. My friend Brittany of Classically B is expanding her amazing pillow collection onto Etsy, and she is offering 15% off her already great prices to all little black door readers. Make sure you are a follower of little black door and you can use the code HAPPY15 at checkout. The offer expires on October 28th so make sure to order up before then! Early Christmas shopping people.

Magazines and pillows. Now that's a good Monday!

Just Say NO ... To Obamacare!
Delay Obamacare? 
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
**********************************
The lies about how America LOVES Obamacare continue to pour from the White House as water over Niagara Falls.  But that is ALL they are ... LIES!

For many Americans, the idea of Obamacare was spawned in Hell, itself, with Satan's seal of approval stamped in red hot letters across the bottom.

Obamacare is nothing more than Obama's redistributing the nation's wealth. It's Marxism, pure and simple. And the people HATE it!

"Social security numbers allegedly passed around in clear sight. Page after page of unworkable code. And no clarity on when it will all be fixed.

Just another day of trying to log in to healthcare.gov.

Two weeks after its launch, the federal health insurance exchange is a "failure," says The Washington Post's Ezra Klein. Some officials deserve to be fired, according to Robert Gibbs, who until February 2011 was one of President Obama's closest advisers.

And those are the Affordable Care Act's supporters."  SOURCE:  http://www.kaiserhealthnews.org/stories/2013/october/17/california-healthline-obamacare-delay-questioned.aspx

Expect some time to elapse, however, before a story is eventually released in the Mainstream Media that the White House is "thinking" about delaying Obamacare for a while, probably a year.

Then there is this from an article by Avik Roy at Forbes.com entitled:  "Obamacare's Website Is Crashing Because It Doesn't Want You To Know How Costly Its Plans Are."  In the article Mr. Roy says:

"A growing consensus of IT experts, outside and inside the government, have figured out a principal reason why the website for Obamacare’s federally-sponsored insurance exchange is crashing. Healthcare.gov forces you to create an account and enter detailed personal information before you can start shopping. This, in turn, creates a massive traffic bottleneck, as the government verifies your information and decides whether or not you’re eligible for subsidies. HHS bureaucrats knew this would make the website run more slowly. But they were more afraid that letting people see the underlying cost of Obamacare’s insurance plans would scare people away."  SOURCE:  http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2013/10/14/obamacares-website-is-crashing-because-it-doesnt-want-you-to-know-health-plans-true-costs/

It is entirely possible, gentle reader,  the democrats have themselves a white elephant in Obamacare and it is already beginning to take its toll.  

Americans are NOT signing up -- IN DROVES.  Only a tiny fraction of those who actually managed to access the website signed up, something like one percent, nation wide, after three weeks in operation.

Seems to me, the smart move is to NOT SIGN UP and pay the fine instead.  Compared to the godawful premiums, the fine is nothing.

Ever since the original tea party in Boston in which Sam Adams and the boys donned Indian (Whoops!  "Native American") disguises and dumped much of a ship's cargo of tea into Boston Harbor, Americans have known the value of "civil disobedience" when the government over them insists on taking their hard earned money for the government's oft frivolous purposes -- or -- simply to redistribute the wealth. 

Obamacare is the largest scheme to redistribute America's wealth our overreaching government has devised to date.
I laugh every time I hear a democrat say the American people reelected Obama because of Obamacare.  That's a hoot! 

Take a look at who, exactly, voted for Obama and you will find that a huge portion of them were Americans who pay no taxes -- at all --  and are, for all intents and purposes, "wards of the government" relying upon the government dole for their very existence.  In many cases it has become a family tradition with generations of the same family suckling from the government teat.  Sure.  THEY'RE going to support ANYONE who guarantees them an income drained from the national treasury.  A Pope once said:  "Anytime you rob Peter to pay Paul -- you can rely upon the support of Paul!"  A truism if there has ever been one.

Maybe it's time to recycle Nancy Reagan's anti-drug message from back in the eighties:  Just say NO!"  This time apply the slogan to Obamacare:  "Just Say No To Obamacare!"  If Obamacare cannot stand on its own, it will collapse of its own weight -- and that would be a glorious day for Americans.

As each day goes by, we learn of more and more problems with Obamacare from the software down to lack of training for so called "navigators."  

The political left is ready to begin, in fact, they have already begun their campaign to replace Obamacare with a completely government run single payer healthcare system just like other socialist and communist countries have.  Articles, editorials, and letters to the editor  are popping up all over the country touting replacement of Obamacare with a single payer system.  Not even a month out of the chute and the dems want to make it worse!

Many Americans have finally come round to wondering how the government will manage their healthcare if that same government can't even manage a website on the Internet?

© J. D. Longstreet

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL)

I am getting more amused every day by the loonies that constitute the Tea Party faction of the Republican Party. Being an advocates of exercising rational self interest in all thing I cannot help by marvel at Senator Marco Rubio's remarks on FOX News this Sunday. Certainly his remarks don't sound much like concern for rational self interest. Of course this is based on the belief comprehensive immigration reform is in everyone's rational self interest.

But maybe it's just me.

Via Memeorandum.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) suggested on Sunday that President Obama’s refusal to compromise with Republicans on Obamacare to re-open the government and raise the nation’s debt ceiling has jeopardized the chances of passing comprehensive immigration reform.

“I think immigration reform is harder to achieve today an it was three weeks ago because of what happened here,” the first-term senator said during an appearance on Fox News Sunday, before agreeing with opponents of immigration reform who warn that that the Obama administration will simply fail to enforce border security or other aspects of a bill he disagrees with.

“The president has undermined this effort, absolutely, because of the way he has behaved over the last three weeks,” Rubio added. “This notion that they’re going to get in a room and negotiate a deal with the president on immigration is much more difficult to do…because of the way the president has behaved towards his opponents over the last three weeks.” {Read More}

This sounds more like sour grapes and a United States Senator acting like a spoiled child than it does looking out four our nations rational self interests.

The following chart shows employee hours worked in durable goods divided by employee hours worked in nondurable goods. I'm looking for signs of excess.


Click to enlarge.

I can't speak for you, but I see plenty.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of annualized private production and nonsupervisory employee hours worked per capita.


Click to enlarge.

By looking at hours worked instead of the number of those employed, we will not be swayed by the illusionary job growth created by more people working but with fewer hours worked each.

And we wonder why the economy is doing so poorly since 2000?

Let's zoom in a bit and look at growth rates.


Click to enlarge.

As seen in the chart, the growth peaked at just over 2%, just like it did heading into the Great Recession.

The first derivative (growth) is still positive. However, the second derivative (change in growth) is looking toxic. It was looking similarly toxic in August of 2007. In hindsight, August of 2000 was no picnic either. There was less advance warning then though.




Nothing is locked in stone. I'm not claiming to be able to accurately predict the future here, although I am definitely not optimistic. We all better hope that there is an escape, otherwise we'll enter the next recession while still in ZIRP. With the stock market hovering at record levels, a party that would be. Not.

In any event, I will be shocked if this is a great Christmas season for retailers. I stand by my relatively long standing prediction that the next recession will hit on or before October of 2014. And yes, if I am correct we'll still be in ZIRP when it hits. Sigh.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment
St. Louis Fed: Population

It's executives of Corporate America that funds the U.S. House GOP stalemate on immigration reform and won't budge.  Time for a 16-day national economic shutdown by La Raza, Hispanic-Americans and supporters to show them we have control of our $2T spending and buying power. "No immigration reform for 2013, not buying your products!"

Francisco Rafael Arrellano Félix

Click to enlarge.

October 17, 2013
Chicago Fed's Evans: Unemp Cld Hit 6% Before FOMC Raises Rates


As seen in the chart above, I could easily envision circumstances in which the unemployment rate never reaches 6%, not that you'd ever hear that from the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President. At least not publicly.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Buyer who bid and bought a violin believed to belong to Wallace Hartley, the band leader that went down with the Titanic wants to remain anonymous.

Click to enlarge.

2019 or bust!

October 25, 2007
Future Bright, But A Ways Off

October 11, 2013
Written Testimony of Mark Zandi


That Mark Zandi, what a hoot!

See Also:
The Big Picture: The Abysmal Track Record of Moody’s Mark Zandi

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Several suspects wanted for the Compcell armed robbery.

Jared David Avila and Oscar De La Rosa

                   

... so this is what happened recently... I just added another pair/ another color to my colorful shoe collection!
                                                                                 Happy weekend everyone!





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