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The following chart shows the constant maturity rate of the 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year treasuries.


Click to enlarge.

Bondmageddon Thoughts

1. ZIRP.
2. Yawn.

See Also:
Bondmageddon Thoughts

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

December 2, 2013
Black Friday Weekend Spending Drop Pressures U.S. Stores


We seem to be coming in a bit shy of Accenture's prediction of an 11% increase so far. Who could have seen that coming? Unfortunately, that is not the scariest quote of the article.


We are so @#$%ed.

America's Socialist Government
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
****************

Norman Thomas, the six-time Socialist Party candidate for U.S. President, said the following in a 1944 speech: (69 years ago!)

    "The American people will never knowingly adopt socialism. But, under the name of 'liberalism,' they will adopt every fragment of the socialist program, until one day America will be a socialist nation, without knowing how it happened.... I no longer need to run as a Presidential Candidate for the Socialist Party. The Democratic Party has adopted our platform."

Like a charade the socialists in America's government hide behind the name "democrat."  That camouflage has worked well since the mid 1940's.  It continues to work with lo/info voters of which America has more than her share.

Today, America has a Socialist/Marxist/Communist President. One half of the Congress, the Senate, is controlled by Socialist/Marxist/Communists. Arguably, the US Supreme Court has already been compromised by the "New" Left/Liberals/Socialists/Communists.  One cannot argue the New Left has not had rather a lot of success!  They most certainly have. 

Look around America today.  She is hardly recognizable as the country she used to be,  a country dedicated to a constitution that defends liberty, defends freedom for the individual, and limits government intrusion into the lives of its citizens.  That's all gone now. 

Today's America is but a shell of its former self.  It is, today, ruled by semi-literate inhabitants of a sub-culture bought and paid for -- by the socialists -- to overpower their opponents by the sheer force of their numbers at the ballot box. 

How did this happen? 

Free stuff, that's how.  Redistribution of the wealth.  Put even more simply:  The government takes taxpayer money from productive citizens and gives it to the unproductive "wards of the government" to buy their votes at election time. 

Redistribution of the wealth is the foundation of socialism.  Once established, as it is today in America, it is next to impossible to reverse short of a total collapse of the government  -- or revolution.

The gulf between conservatives and socialists is far to wide to be bridged.  The dogma of both is so vastly different that a grafting of the two is impossible.  Therefore, we have the "logjam" or "gridlock" in Congress today. 

Understand, dear reader,  there will be little, if any, bipartisanship in the Congress between Socialist/Marxist/Communist on the left and freedom loving Americans on the right.  To compromise with those who constitute the political left in America today is to compromise the freedom and liberty of every American. That cannot be allowed to happen.
             
Just so I am clear -- when I refer to liberals today and "the Left" today, I am referring to the Socialists/Marxists/Communists who make up the modern Democratic Party and NOT the REAL LIBERALS of which extremely few are left in America's government today. 

Just days ago we remembered the 50th anniversary of the assassination of President John F. Kennedy.  I noted in a commentary at the time that I was not a fan of JFK.  In 2010 an article appeared in the Wall Street Journal that will shed some light on my dislike of JFK's Administration.

"The Fall of The House of Kennedy," was written by Daniel Henninger.  Mr. Henninger wrote the following:  "In 1962, President John F. Kennedy planted the seeds that grew the modern Democratic Party. That year, JFK signed executive order 10988 allowing the unionization of the federal work force. This changed everything in the American political system. Kennedy's order swung open the door for the inexorable rise of a unionized public work force in many states and cities.
 
This in turn led to the fantastic growth in membership of the public employee unions—The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) and the teachers' National Education Association.
 
They broke the public's bank. More than that, they entrenched a system of taking money from members' dues and spending it on political campaigns. Over time, this transformed the Democratic Party into a public-sector dependency.
 
They became different than the party of FDR, Truman, Meany and Reuther. That party was allied with the fading industrial unions, which in turn were tethered to a real world of profit and loss.
 
The states in the North and on the coasts turned blue because blue is the color of the public-sector unions. This tax-and-spend milieu became the training ground for their politicians."   Source:   http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748704320104575015010515688120  

Why does JFK's action irk me so much?  Consider this from an article entitled  "Unions: The History of Their Socialist Agenda!" by Dr. Keith C. Westbrook Ph.D. and published at redstate.com:  "The Labor union movement has always been led by Socialist’s advocating the communist doctrine, the list of prominent leaders in the union movement is littered with their philosophies."  You may read the entire article at:  http://www.redstate.com/kcjw33/2011/03/11/unions-the-history-of-their-socialist-agenda/

In an article at forbes.com, Peter Ferrara says the following:  "So why does President Obama keep saying that the rich do not pay their fair share?  Is he ignorant?  Wouldn’t somebody in his Administration whisper to him that he is peddling nonsense?

The answer is that to President Obama this is still not fair because he is a Marxist.  To a Marxist, the fact that the top 1% earn more income than the bottom 99% is not fair, no matter how they earn it, fairly or not.  So it is not fair unless more is taken from the top 1% until they are left only with what they “need,” as in any true communist system." SOURCE: http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2012/12/20/is-president-obama-really-a-socialist-lets-analyze-obamanomics/

The thing that frightens me more than our socialist government is this:  The American people seem to be embracing socialism.  No matter that socialism has been proven to fail in every society and every country that has tried it to date.  No matter that it enslaves entire populations and transforms them into automatons for the state. No matter that it turns their formally free country into a huge prison. Some will argue that America, itself, is already  one huge prison with American citizens being watched, and listened to, and tracked 24 hours a day -- just as prisoners in federal prisons. 

If you want those tiny little hairs on the back of your neck to stand up read "32 Privacy Destroying Technologies That Are Systematically Transforming America Into A Giant Prison" by Michael Snyder at: http://thetruthwins.com/archives/32-privacy-destroying-technologies-that-are-systematically-transforming-america-into-a-giant-prison

We have very little time before it will truly be too late. America will have passed the point of no return.  We are very nearly there today.

There was a time when I thought America could withstand anything.  No longer.  After witnessing America go from the world's foremost superpower to a banana republic in less than four years,  I am now convinced that she is bound for the dustbin of history to take her place with all the former great empires that also committed suicide.

I desperately hope I am wrong, but I don't sense the "will" to fight back, to fight for our freedom, among today's American citizens. 

Understand, dear reader, if we don't have the will to take the bit in our teeth and free our country from the yoke of socialism, then we don't deserve that which our forefathers fought, bled, and died to win -- and to preserve for us.

J. D. Longstreet

Alejandra Natalia Rodríguez Escobar

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

I guess the one good thing about being really really bad is any improvement is hailed as success.

Forgive me if you will, but after the three years plus it apparently required to create a broken website (ACA of course), expecting us to believe that after only a month the myriad of problematical issues have been resolved and the ObamaCare website has now achieved the administrations goals is a bit much.

Right. We believed if we liked out healthcare we could keep our health care. Turns out such such was not true. Like I said, forgive me for being the skeptic. Maybe after six months without the site crashing and millions of positive reports have poured, then, and only then, it will be time to become "a believer." Not that I will ever believe ObamaCare is necessarily a good or even adequate healthcare system. Forget about affordable, unless you qualify for the low income government subsidies.

BUSINESS INSIDER - The Obama administration is out with a progress report on HealthCare.gov, the federal health care website that it pledged in late October would be fixed for the "vast majority" of users by Nov. 30.

The report declares that it has "met" that goal, two months after the disastrous launch of the website.

"While we strive to innovate and improve our outreach and systems for reaching consumers, we believe we have met the goal of having a system that will work smoothly for the vast majority of users," the progress report says.

Some key points from the report:

• The site will now be able to support a maximum of 800,000 visitors per day, including a target of 50,000 concurrent visits.
• The site is now online 90% of the time, according to the The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
• The "tech surge" that came to the site in late October has helped to fix 400-plus bugs and glitches on a "punch list."
• The average response time of the site is now less than one second, an improvement from about 8 seconds in late October.

View the progress charts.

Truth will be in the report(s) yet to be made down the road a ways. Months, years, and even decades down the road.

Via: Memeorandum

Roberto Venegas Fernández and Michael Patrick McNaughton

Click to enlarge.

The herd sure loves the current 1.37% 5-year treasury compared to the 2.75% 10-year treasury. Good luck on that one.

Perhaps the herd is right though. Perhaps interest rates will be north of 4% on the 10-year in 5 years as the economy continues to "recover". We can all hope and dream. Right? Okay, maybe not all. The Japanese would clearly be harder to convince. They've had more time to watch what ZIRP can do to an economy over the long-term. Sigh.

FRB: Why are interest rates being kept at a low level?

Most Americans love higher shelter costs. It's a fact. And let's not forget about higher priced tuition. Who doesn't love that? The more financing the better! Here's the best part. These low interest rates have not boosted the price of gasoline. It's just a coincidence that gasoline prices have tripled over the last decade or so. Can't hold the Fed responsible for that. They have no control over it at all.

February 29, 2012
Bernanke: The Fed 'Can't Do Much About The Price Of Gas'

Let me summarize.

Good asset prices rising: You can thank the Fed!
Bad asset prices rising: You can't blame the Fed!

Good asset prices falling: You can't blame the Fed!
Bad asset prices falling: You can thank the Fed!

The funny thing is that gasoline prices stopped going up. It's almost like the global economy is too weak to support high priced gasoline. Go figure.

So how exactly is the Fed going to generate consumer price inflation going forward if gasoline prices can't rise further and WalMart sells 32" flat screen televisions for $98? It's a puzzling conundrum of an enigma wrapped up in a mystery.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
U.S. Treasury: Daily Yield Curve

November 29, 2013
Black Friday live: Dummy holds shopper's place, cops say man shot over TV

Is that the quote of the year? No. Brace for it though. Here it comes!


WTF! How can they just leave us dangling like that? Is the television okay or isn't it? We know it was dropped. We know that there was some wrestling going on after that. We know it was taken away in a vehicle by a man with a gun. It just doesn't look good at all! What if the television is dead? If there isn't a ransom demand within the next 72 hours I'm going to start assuming the worst!

Let us hope and pray that the television is okay and will be reunited with its one true owner. Just think how much sentimental value was built up in their brief time together. It's like losing a baby, really. That's what makes Black Friday so special: so many people, so many solid gold babies.

What is it that makes a complete stranger dive into an icy river to save a solid gold baby? Maybe we'll never know. - Jack Handey

    You rarely see me wearing black but that doesn't mean I don't like it. I really do! In fact I created a specific board on my Pinterest dedicated to this timeless/ comfort zone outfits option. See it here.
So, here I'm wearing a 80% b&w outfit with 20% color ( I had to :) It was a casual weekend look for running errands and other little things...




                                                                      Coat: Kate Spade/ options Here and Here 
                                                                      Sweater: c/o Joe Fresh/
                                                                      Shirt: Ralph Lauren/ Here and Here 
                                                        Sunglasses: Ralph Lauren
                                                        Shoes: Jeffrey Campbell/ similar style Here and Here 
                                                                      Bag: Reed Krakoff/Here, Here and Here 
                                                        Jeans: Truck Jeans/ similar Here and Here 

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

Food for thought. At least for those republicans that have retained the ability to think outside the box their party has sculpted for them or they created for themselves.

In recent decades, the Republicans have usually been the more nationalist of the two major parties. Whereas Democratic foreign policy experts have been more at home among global elites, and more enthusiastic about pursuing altruistic humanitarian goals, Republican experts have been less comfortable at conferences abroad, and more concerned about the safety of the American homeland and its traditional allies than about trying to improve the lot of the rest of the world. As one might expect, defense budgets have usually fared better under Republican than Democratic presidents.

The problem for Republicans is that there are various kinds of nationalism. There is, for instance, the aggressive Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld brand of nationalism, in which you proactively seek out enemies and destroy them, with relatively little concern for what the outside world thinks. Especially in a post-9/11 world, you can't take chances! This is a nationalism in which high defense budgets are encouraged, even as humanitarianism is de-emphasized. It is not that such nationalists are necessarily hardhearted. Rather, it is that they genuinely feel the world overall will be a more humane place with preponderant American power.

To one side of these Republican nationalists are Republican isolationists. Now isolationists are nationalists, too. They also believe that the most important thing in the world is a safe and secure American homeland. It is just that they feel this can be better achieved by staying out of foreign wars and other such entanglements, particularly in the Eastern Hemisphere. In their minds, American human and material treasure is simply too precious to be wasted abroad. Tried-and-true isolationists are actually rare in the Republican Party: just because you are against this or that military intervention certainly does not make you an isolationist. Rather, there are isolationist-trending Republicans of varying degrees who seek to do the minimum abroad, while concentrating on protecting and improving the homeland. They seek a perfectionism within the American continent only, with some concern for contiguous parts of the Western Hemisphere as well. The world overseas will just have to fend for itself.

Continue reading and enjoy the complete article...

Via: Memeorandum

Click to enlarge.

Last month? We have returned to the long-term trend line in blue. What more do you want?

I guess it was sort of a trick question. This chart shows how tiny small time deposits (under $100,000) are compared to how much debt the consumer has racked up (bottom scale). The ratio hit a new low in September and I don't really expect November to buck the trend. It also shows what that tiny ratio might mean to 10-year treasury yields (left scale).

Perhaps you are interested in large time deposits instead? Good luck finding a trend there. I'm not sure the one percent buy enough canned goods to matter (probably close to 1% at best). I'm also guessing that they don't generally rent tires. Just a hunch.

Deep sigh.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

My U-Haul rate comparisons continue to indicate a migration away from liberal bastions of SF and NYC and Chicago to the Red States such as Idaho, Utah and Texas.  Go to youtube.compubworkstv for latest results

HERE IS AN IDEA---  Freedom loving peoples should be selective where they chose to vacation. For instance, don't support the peoples republic of California with your vacation dollars, support free enterprise destinations over repressive communities.

In fact, make a big deal of it, let the liberal centers know that you won't be visiting them any longer.

Short Trailer (Concept)




California is full of places to avoid. Here is an example, I love mountains and mountain life, I bought a place in South Lake Tahoe 22 years ago. Vacationed there mainly, then moved there in 2007 when I left Morgan Stanley (on my 50th birthday, read between those lines).

From my personal experience and observations with the community of South Lake Tahoe I've come to see it as the poster child for all that is wrong with America. An oppressive government that has devastated the small business community and racked up massive debts from failed government controlled development projects.

It is not surprising after all the "Jewel of the Sierras" has long been a battleground between liberal extremists and conservatives. The Sierra lake community has been hijacked by the leftwing extremists and turned South Lake Tahoe into the decimated community it is.   (Details on the Trailer above)

If you support freedom than you should avoid South Lake Tahoe and communities like it, and let them know why. You can reach the people directly in communities like South Lake Tahoe through their online media. Make a comment in their "locals" newspaper. Let the liberals know that you would not do business with them because you love freedom and they repress it. Perhaps the conservatives among them will then be able to rise to the cause. There are not many conservatives left in the area but there are some, they have been bullied into submission but may rise with encouragement.

Just a few comments in the locals press would cause a tizzy.

Doing something, does something.  Let the community know that their acceptance of government oppression has cost them your business.

http://www.LakeTahoeNews.net 


That will get noticed.  People will scream and rant.

THE IMPACT OF TOT ON CENTRALIZATION AND THE CRONY CREEP

One of the culprits in the centralization of control and subsequent decline in many destination communities is the success of the Transient occupancy Tax (TOT) a.k.a.  Hotel Room Tax.  This system can lead to a destructive Crony community such as what happened in South Lake Tahoe.  Government insiders working with select outside developers and "Consultants" corrupt the separation between public and private sectors and degradate  the community. Insiders "controlling" the tax flow from TOT and using it to control the community through marketing and promotions that favor the crony goals. The potential impacts are multiple, dramatic and long lasting.

If you want more info, would like to share a experience, suggest a destination, or get info on communities in the Pacific Northwest sign up for my  Travel Blogs by emailing me at PubworksTV@gmail.com

More info on travel: here is a link to a channel promoting the emerging touring talented in the music BUSINESS. Check out Divas of D.V. featuring 3 really fine female singers. 

https://www.youtube.com/user/PacificNorthWestLive

In my last post, I presented the following chart that showed the fraction of the civilian noninstitutional population aged 16 to 19 who are employed.


Click to enlarge.

It is disturbing to me that we can't and quite possibly won't ever get back to the trend channel. I therefore propose a desperate solution. If the teenagers can't come to the mountain, then let's bring the mountain to the teenagers! All we need to do is come up with an alternate trend channel. Right?


Click to enlarge.

Still not back to the trend channel? What a bummer! Have no fear though. We are guaranteed to get back to this one at some point. Just need to be patient. At the very least, the percentage of those aged 16 to 19 with a job will hit the hard floor of 0% and fall no further (which is in sharp contrast to the long-term trend itself). Call me a mathematical optimist!

As a side note, do all teenagers now live in Detroit? Seriously. Other than potentially obvious long-term structural employment issues, what's up with that long-term parabolic trend failure? Sigh.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The following chart shows the fraction of the civilian noninstitutional population aged 16 to 19 who are employed. It's basically a brutal combination of an extremely high unemployment rate and a very poor labor force participation rate among those aged 16 to 19.


Click to enlarge.

Teenagers can't stuff the channel if they are no longer in the channel! As seen in the chart, they are a long, long ways from being in the channel again (if ever).

Channel Stuffing


For what it is worth and in the spirit of shady business practices, I think many teenagers are being stuffed. I'm not just talking Thanksgiving Day leftovers either.

November 25, 2013
USA Today: Government books $41.3 billion in student loan profits


I wouldn't characterize it as making a profit. I'd suggest that the main purpose is to stuff the typical teenager with excessive "lifeblood". Perhaps that's just me though.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Jere Cobb was mistakenly identified as Miguel Pérez Soto

Earl Tyree Sampson

The following chart shows real corporate dividends per capita quarterly growth.


Click to enlarge.

The next chart shows the data as standard deviations from the relatively stable 1952:Q2 to 1999:Q4 period.


Click to enlarge.

And lastly, let's zoom in and add some commentary.


Click to enlarge.

The two largest deviations over the past 60 years were in the past two quarters. Both of them! That's a positive 15-sigma event followed by a negative 8-sigma event. Nice. Nothing builds long-term confidence like predictable dividends, lol. Sigh.

Corporate America sure likes swinging for the fences these days! What could possibly go wrong?

So we got that goin' for us, which is nice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

November 21, 2007
Happy Thanksgiving!

Six years and counting!

Oh, sure. There were a few bumps along the way but nothing that ZIRP couldn't pretend to paper over.

Call me an optimist. I see the turkey as half full!

In all seriousness, hope you all have/had a wonderful Thanksgiving. :)