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Parabolic Growth: Not Sustainable (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the annual growth in the S&P 500 Index divided by the annual growth in retail sales (excluding food services). I offer two data sets. One starts at 2004:Q1 (in black) and the other starts at 2010:Q2 (in blue). A parabolic trend line has been added for each series.


Click to enlarge.

Note that both parabolic trends are nearly identical. So much for the "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me" theory to investing.

We are currently seeing each 1% of retail sales growth turn into 6% in S&P 500 Index growth (a 6-1 leverage ratio), just like we were heading into the Great Recession. That is not the most disturbing part though. It's how we got here and where investors seem to think we're headed.

Parabolic Growth: Not Sustainable



Extreme ways are back again
Extreme places I didn't know
I broke everything new again
Everything that I'd owned

The future's so bright I gotta snipe hunt.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

President Richard Nixon and Rev. Billy Graham TELEPHONE CALL

April 1973



Nixon and Graham discuss the media and communism...

CRUDE OIL RISING as Obama announces new vehicle fuel standards

 Obama's new fuel standards by 2025


Get ready for $5 PUMP PRICES

Obama is going to improve our fuel efficiency standards.  He says they will double their mileage capability.   Will crude oil be $500/bbl by then?  I don't think America will last that long folks.

First we are told that we are the world's largest oil producer now but the prices are being jacked up very conveniently for the consumer who will eventually be forced to drive Obama cars and trucks in the near future:




CRUDE OIL up 7% over the last two weeks

We now have CRUDE OIL rising rapidly at $103 and climbing 



COUPLE FOUND in Dallas: Ex-teacher Scott Paul Alcaraz accused of sexually assaulting a minor removed GPS device before running off with 15-yr old girl Dallas police looking



 UPDATE 2-19-114  Teacher and 15 yr old girl found

see here

This is a very serious deal far beyond what these predator teachers do. 
Dallas News reports according to a Dallas County source, Scott Paul Alcaraz cut off his GPS tracking device on Friday and “vanished.” As soon as he removed the device, the court and the judge were notified, and new warrants were issued for his arrest.


Dallas police have issued no new updates concerning Emelin Lazo or Alcaraz. Lazo, 15, has not been heard from since Monday morning, when she texted her mother that she was running off with the former T.C. Marsh Middle School teacher charged with sexually assaulting a minor last year.

Update at 10:54 a.m. February 18: Dallas police say they still have not located Emelin Lazo or Scott Paul Alcaraz.

Original item posted at 5:48 p.m. February 17: Dallas police are looking for a 15-year-old girl who they believe might have run off willingly with a 27-year-old man who was charged last year with sexually assaulting a 14-year-old at a Dallas Independent School District middle school.

Police say that at 8:30 this morning, Emelin Lazo texted her mother that she “wants to be with” Scott Paul Alcaraz. The girl, last seen along the 12000 block of Noel Road near the Galleria, has not been seen or heard from since she sent the message.

More here









SAISD San Antonio teacher Mathias Hieserich at Highlands High School arrested for soliciting a minor online for sex



This is a nice black eye for the non-profit Teach for America.  The joke here is that this guy passed a background check.  Not much of a check, obviously. 
KENS 5 revealed a math teacher at Highlands High School resigned last year after being questioned on campus by Hays County Sheriff's investigators.


Mathias Hieserich, 24, resigned March 19, the same day he was questioned by authorities in connection to an incident in the Dripping Springs-area.
Hieserich was then arrested in Bexar County last July and charged with online solicitation of a minor for sex.

The felony warrant was out of Hays County.

Hieserich was assigned to Highlands High School as part of "Teach for America", a non-profit organization that places recent college graduates in urban teaching settings.
A spokeswoman for SAISD said the district currently has more than 220 teachers supplied through the program.

SAISD officials said they did not tell students and parents about the chain of events that preceded Hieserich's resignation, because the incident happened off-campus, outside Bexar County and did not involve a Highlands student.

More here

The Next Recession Arriving Right on Schedule?

The following chart shows the annual change in the 2-year moving average of retail sales (excluding food services). I'm going for a maximum smoothing approach to remove as much noise as possible (while still seeing the underlying trend).


Click to enlarge.

Good luck blaming the slow and steady growth rate decline (since 2012) on this winter's weather.

In May of 2012, I predicted that the next recession would hit on or before October 2014. Eight months to go. I see little reason to alter my opinion. At the rate we're going, it could be close enough for government work anyway. I truly hope I am wrong. Seriously.

If I am right (might not be of course), this is going to be a nasty recession. Why? Many seem to think a recession is impossible during ZIRP and that the Fed has saved us. What a confidence shaking wake-up call that would be.

I am especially amused by the party of 1999. Had we not thrown such a spectacular one (and hoarded for the Y2K bug that was a non-event), the recession may have happened right then and there. Praise be to celebratory can-kicking.

And lastly, rising interest rate environment my @$$.

This is not investment advice. As always, just ugly charts and opinions.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Retail Sales: Total (Excluding Food Services)

GOLD, SILVER, and MINING STOCKS up in 2014

GOLD and SILVER redefining the economy 

GOLD up 9%
SILVER up 12%
GOLD STOCK up 23% YTD


GOLD and SILVER investor interest rising worldwide

Strong demand for physical GOLD and SILVER

Rick Rule, Chairman of Sprott US Holdings discusses the recent developments in the GOLD and SILVER markets with Sean Turnbull of the SGT Report.  The GOLD and SILVER markets are rapidly revealing a growing worldwide interest in the precious metals:




Other recent interviews with Rick Rule:
http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2014/02/rick-rule-examines-gold-and-silver.html

http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2014/02/rick-rule-expects-volatile-gold-and.html 

http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2014/02/kenneth-ameduri-and-rick-rule-talk-gold.html 

...developing...

NYFW- State of Pink-

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Yay for the pink coat! Yes, I took my DIY pink coat to NYFW. Since I didn't wear it to much lately, I said that it's about time for a new look! No other tricking colors are present in the mix, so I chose to pair it plain and simple with the most contrasting non color: Black! I forgot for a moment few good hours about high heels and my ladylike approach turned into grunge style for the rest of the day!
Voila!



                                                                                     Coat: DIY, made by Bogdan and I/ more pink coats Here and Here  
                                                                    Pants: H&M/ similar Here and Here 
                                                                                     Boots: Lucky Brand/ Here and Here 
                                                                                     Bag: Pierre Hardy/ Here 
                                                                                     Sunglasses: Ralph Lauren/ Here 




Man-made Climate Change Believers Need to Come Clean about Being 21st Century Atheists



Believers in man-made climate change, who used to call it global warming until they ran into some inconvenient truths, need to admit that they don’t believe in God.  It takes a Godless person to believe that carbon is a pollutant.  

These arrogant people think that they have the power to declare that riding a bicycle instead of an SUV somehow affects the weather?  They really believe if they had the ability to snap their fingers and return the whole world population back to the horse and buggy age that somehow extreme weather would cease to exist?

Come on climate change believers!  Admit it once and for all that your religion is man-made-climate change.  It’s an article of faith for you guys despite all of the scientific evidence that proves CO2 does not drive temperature.  You still believe it does because it is your secular religion that ignores the truth that the climate is controlled by Almighty God. 

He wants it cold, it gets cold. 

He wants it hot, it gets hot! 

He wants it to snow and ice, and snow and ice it will be.   For as long as He wants it to last regardless of all the bicycle riding by 6 billion human beings He created in the first place. 

I admit I’m a believer in God.

Why don’t you admit you’re not?      

WHSF, Mexican Fiesta And LULAC National Allows DREAMers To Apply For Scholarships In 2014

A recent scholarship study by HNNUSA found that major and local non-profit organizations supported immigration reform, but failed to allow DREAMers from applying for scholarships. Since then, the Wisconsin Hispanic Scholarship Foundation, Mexican Fiesta and LULAC National have changed their policy requirements barring DREAMers.

By H. Nelson Goodson
February 17, 2014

Milwaukee, WI - On Tuesday, Hispanic News Network U.S.A. ((HNNUSA) has learned that the Wisconsin Hispanic Scholarship Foundation (WHSF), Mexican Fiesta and League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) National have changed their scholarship requirement policy that used to prevent DREAMers or DACA college students from applying for scholarships. HNNUSA recently exposed the mentioned organizations and other major Hispanic non-profit organizations that prevented DREAMers from applying for scholarships. Some organizations have broken tradition from excluding DREAMers from getting scholarships and have become more giving to needy Hispanic college students regardless of status.
WHSF sponsors the annual three day Mexican Fiesta in Milwaukee and is affiliated with Wisconsin LULAC local chapters 319 and 322 and the LULAC National. WHSF says, it had given out over $1.250M in prior scholarships,  but none were ever given to DREAMers until this year, 2014. About 100 scholarships are awarded every year, according to WHSF.
The recently released LULAC National Scholarship Fund Student Application now requires, an applicant must now choose by checking either, U.S. Citizen, legal permanent resident or lawfully present (DACA) student. Students can begin to apply for scholarships and the due date is March 31, 2014. WHSF also requires a student applying must be a Wisconsin resident.
HNNUSA made a difference once again and has been instrumental in helping to bring about gradual change for the betterment of our Hispanic community by paving the way for DREAMers to be included for scholarship awards and not be excluded. It is the right thing to do and non-profit organizations have realized, students regardless of legal status are our leaders of tomorrow.  
¡Primero mi Gente!


For more information about WHSF, Mexican Fiesta and LULAC National Scholarships go to following link: http://alturl.com/r69nj