A Tale of Three Exponential Trend Failures

Click to enlarge.

1. Although we cannot see it in all its grandeur, we can infer that there was a failure during the dotcom bust. Note the decline heading into 2002.

2. We can clearly see the failure during the housing bust. The data stopped following the blue line.

3. We now have something new. The data no longer follows the red line and it seems extremely unlikely that it will return to it. Those expecting a surge in growth from here may soon be very disappointed.

I'm repeatedly told that there will be no unhappy ending this time though. So we've got that going for us, which is nice.

Quits and openings are only part of the picture of course. I'm not looking at hires or other separations. I think quits offer a fairly interesting take on how optimistic workers can be. I'd say they are way too optimistic right now. That's especially true of recent retirees who became convinced that recent stock market performance can be extrapolated well into the distant future. Good luck on that theory!

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart