The Cone of Employment Pain

The following chart shows the annual job growth using the quarterly average of the equally weighted government establishment and household employment surveys. I'm using the quarterly average to filter the noise out a bit.


Click to enlarge.

Perhaps an optimist can find something good in that chart, but I certainly can't (at least over the long-term and/or full business cycle anyway).

May 18, 2012
Recession Prediction

They say that predicting the next recession is a fool's game. Well, sign me up. Why not!

I'm going to predict the next recession will hit on or before October 2014.

For what it is worth, the odds of me turning optimistic any time soon are somewhere between slim and none. Just so you know, slim left town. Put another way, I see little reason to change my long-standing prediction.

This is not investment advice. Predicting the future is a fool's game. That said, it might be even more foolish to ignore the risks entirely. It's certainly easy and popular these days though. I'll give you that.

January 6, 2014
Hussman Funds: Confidence Abounds

Confidence abounds. Last week, Investor’s Intelligence reported a surge in advisory sentiment to the highest bullish percentage since October 19, 2007. The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) reported that the 3-week average equity exposure among its members increased to the highest level on record.

Hey, what do you know? No sarcasm this time, unless sheer unadulterated long-term employment chart terror counts. I don't think it does but it is certainly open for debate.

See Also:
The Overleveraged Cone of Shame

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart