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$1000 or Bust!


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Although we seem very determined to make it to $1000, I'm going to have to go with bust on this one.

1. The blue trend line was a noble effort.
2. The orange trend line offered renewed hope.
3. The red trend line doubled our efforts.

Three attempts. Three exponential trend failures.

Despair.com: Incompetence

When you earnestly believe you can compensate for a lack of skill by doubling your efforts, there's no end to what you can't do.

I'm told that the economy will soon accelerate from here. If it is true, then I have just one question.

Which direction?

Seriously. At best, the answer seems worthy of a coin toss.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The "Recovery"

The following chart shows goods-producing employment divided by service-providing employment.


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Poof.

Let's look at the bigger picture and see where we are.


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If transitioning from a goods-producing economy to a service-providing economy is such a good thing, then why does the bulk of the transitioning happen during recessions?

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #1
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #2

The Path to Free Toys!


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I wonder if the financial experts telling us all to invest in China were factoring in the price of toys.

November 20, 2013
Walmart's Black Friday, Thanksgiving Plans Try to Control Crowds: Will They Work?

Over 100 toys will be a part of the pre-Black Friday deals that begin on Friday. Among the deals are Hot Wheels cars, which are Walmart's biggest unit mover in its toy department, on sale for 60 cents from 97 cents. A game of Monopoly will be available for $5, down from its usual price of $11.77.

For what it is worth, I remember paying $1 per Hot Wheels car in the 1970s.

Source Data:
BLS: Inflation & Prices

Barking Up the Wrong Tree

The following chart shows annual production and nonsupervisory logging employee hours worked.


Click to enlarge.

That dog don't hunt.

Unless the long-term trend changes, it would seem that about the only logging we'll be doing in the distant future will require a username and password.

October 9, 2013
Here’s the Report That May Have Prompted The Lumber Liquidators Raid

Conservation groups say forests in Russia’s far east are known for large scale illegal cutting operations. Illegal logging brigades comb forests for high-quality varieties like Mongolian oak and Korean pine, cutting down trees in the middle of the night and passing them along to illegal saw mills. From there, traders mix the illegal wood with legal wood and Chinese manufacturers use fake documentation to smuggle so-called black wood out of Russia to sell to Western retailers.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment

Lettuce Prey


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Let us pray that the wages of production and nonsupervisory manufacturing workers will finally be able to keep up with the price of lettuce over the long-term.


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Let us also pray that the remaining 12 million manufacturing employees (down from nearly 20 million in the late 1970s) will not soon be replaced by even more automated systems and outsourcing.

And lastly, let us pray that SNAP benefits will be cut for all participants in November 2013. May this new era of American manufacturing employment provide all that we could possibly ever want or need and may we remain recession-free well into the distant future.

In Ted Cruz' name we pray. Amen.

October 26, 2013
How Washington’s “Crucifixion” Of Ted Cruz Made Him A Tea Party Saint In Iowa

DES MOINES, Iowa — As an audience of 600 Republicans awaited the arrival of Sen. Ted Cruz Friday night at the Iowa Events Center, conservative Christian activist Steve Scheffler came to the podium to give thanks to God for the Tea Party savior — and plead for more principled conservative leaders like him willing to “be crucified for their belief system.”

The ballroom full of amens that followed went a long way toward explaining why Cruz — fresh off a failed crusade to dismantle Obamacare that resulted in a 16-day government shutdown and a political disaster for his party — has been greeted with such adoration by Tea Party crowds in recent days.

Source Data:
BLS: CPI Database
St. Louis Fed: Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: Manufacturing
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Manufacturing

Gonna Pop Some Tags (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of annualized production and nonsupervisory apparel (nondurable goods) employee hours worked per capita.


Click to enlarge.



I wear your granddad's clothes
I look incredible
I'm in this big ass coat
From that thrift shop down the road

Source Data:
BLS: Employment
St. Louis Fed: Population

Real Annualized International Trade per Capita


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Let's zoom in for a closer look.


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Sorry, China. It looks like we're pretty much done being your exponential growth engine.

August 11, 2013
China Faces Years Of Slowing GDP Growth, Top Strategist Says

“We need to get used to the fact that the boom is over,” said Andy Rothman, China macro strategist at brokerage CLSA. “The days when you could just roll out of bed and make money, or the days when you could expect that the growth rate for most things was going to be faster next year — that’s done. We should expect that for the foreseeable future, every year on average, most major economic data points are going to be growing more slowly.”

It could never happen here of course. This is America. Thanks to perma-ZIRP, booms will never end again! Hurray!



Don't mind us we're just spilling our guts
If this is love I don't wanna be hanging by the neck
Before an audience of death

See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

"Quality" Job Growth (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the annual growth in quality nonfarm employment. I am excluding retail trade and food services and drinking places jobs, as these are relatively low paying jobs (and generally do not require a college degree).


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1. As seen in red, we're currently attempting to hug the high point long-term declining trend.
2. As seen in blue, the overall long-term declining trend has finally reached 0% growth.

How can one not be optimistic when wearing the proper spectacles? Don't even look at the blue trend line. Just stare at where we are on the red trend line! It's still positive! The glasses are therefore still half full!

Seriously, this economy is to dye for! There's no need to be chicken. Swing for the fences! The Fed has permanently put a stop to recessions! What's the worst that could happen?



Chicken Eyeglasses

The idea behind the glasses is to prevent chickens from attacking and cannibalizing one another. Red-tinted lenses, as opposed to other colors, are said to be effective in stopping the internecine pecking because they disguise the color of blood. As summed up in a 1953 article in Indiana's National Road Traveler newspaper, "The deep rose-colored plastic lenses make it impossible for the cannibal [chicken] to see blood on the other chickens, although permitting it to see the grain on the ground."

Yes! More grain! Less life blood!

This is not investment advice. Don't be a victim of sarchasm!

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart