The following chart shows the US trade deficit with China divided by the price of crude oil (annualized billions of barrels).Click to enlarge.It shows the amount of oil China could buy if they were to use their entire trade surplus with us to do so. That's assuming the price of oil would not be driven even higher in response to increased purchases of course, which is no doubt a bad assumption.The next chart plots the...
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The Stock Market: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
Click to enlarge.The line in black shows real net corporate dividends.The line in blue shows the real trade deficit (same scale).The red line shows the exponential trend in real dividends from 1947:Q1 to 1987:Q1. Note the exponential trend failure (to the upside).Will real dividends stay permanently elevated? Will profit margins stay permanently elevated? Can we be assured that the worst is behind us? Can we expect...
A Great Disturbance in the Civilian Labor Force
Click to enlarge.The blue line (left scale) shows the civilian labor force participation rate of those aged 25 to 54. It peaked in the late 1990s and it has been pretty much going down ever since.The red line (left scale) shows the civilian labor force participation rate of those aged 55 and over. It bottomed in the early 1990s and it has been generally going up ever since (recent flattening notwithstanding).The green...
China's Growth Is Slowing? Big Shocker.
The following chart shows the natural log of imports from China divided by disposable personal income. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line.Click to enlarge.Can you say market saturation?Source Data:St. Louis Fed: Custom Cha...
Real GDP Growth Is Broken (Musical Tribute)
Click to enlarge.Real GDP growth averaged 3.48% per year from 1947 to 2000.Starting in 2000, this long-term exponential trend began to fail. First the dotcom bubble popped, then came the housing bust. Let's take a close-up look at the most recent recovery for any signs of hope.Click to enlarge.From the bottom of the Great Recession, real GDP growth has averaged just 2.28%. That is an especially pathetic growth rate...
Ten Questions for 2014
Now that the consumer price index for 2013 is complete, let's look at the long-term trend of the annual percent change in the average annual CPI.Click to enlarge.Ten Questions for 20141. How many decades will we be stuck in ZIRP?2. Will it be as many decades as Japan?3. Why is the Fed tapering?4. When will the Fed ramp up QE again?5. How much more poning can the hyperinflationists take?6. Why am I so willing to hold...
The Cone of Employment Pain
The following chart shows the annual job growth using the quarterly average of the equally weighted government establishment and household employment surveys. I'm using the quarterly average to filter the noise out a bit.Click to enlarge.Perhaps an optimist can find something good in that chart, but I certainly can't (at least over the long-term and/or full business cycle anyway).May 18, 2012Recession PredictionThey...
Craziest Monetary God Dam Design Ever!
The following chart shows construction and manufacturing payrolls as a fraction of nonfarm payrolls.Click to enlarge.That sure looks like a fish ladder to me. The only difference is that the fish aren't supposed to be heading downstream. Down 19% and temporarily holding!Fish LadderThe velocity of water falling over the steps has to be great enough to attract the fish to the ladder, but it cannot be so great that it...
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