Real GDP Growth Is Broken (Musical Tribute)

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Real GDP growth averaged 3.48% per year from 1947 to 2000.

Starting in 2000, this long-term exponential trend began to fail. First the dotcom bubble popped, then came the housing bust. Let's take a close-up look at the most recent recovery for any signs of hope.


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From the bottom of the Great Recession, real GDP growth has averaged just 2.28%. That is an especially pathetic growth rate for at least five reasons.

1. "The worse a situation becomes the less it takes to turn it around, the bigger the upside." - George Soros (I think we can all agree that the situation qualified as much worse. So where is the bigger upside in response?)

2. The growth rate is a full 1.2% lower than the long-term average heading into 2000. This pig desperately needs lipstick in my opinion.

3. We can't blame any recessions for it being this low. There haven't been any recessions since the bottom! This data has been cherry picked to be recession free. Duh! I threw the optimists a bone here and it still came up way short! Seriously.

4. We're currently following the exponential growth trend line with great precision (r-squared = 0.988). The last time it failed, it failed to the downside. Historically speaking, recessions tend to do that. I know. Shocking.

5. How much will the 2.28% average drop once the next recession hits? In other words, what will the true growth rate be over a complete business cycle? 3.48%? I doubt it with every fiber of my being. I'd even be willing to leverage up that fiber with Super Colon Blow!

The January 20th cover of Time Magazine calls Janet Yellen the sixteen trillion dollar woman. That's a pretty amazing title and her picture definitely inspires confidence. She's going to need to work some magic to restore prosperity over the full business cycle though. I therefore offer her a musical tribute to help inspire. The monumental task before her is legendary.

In the dead of night
She'll come and take you away
Searing beams of light and thunder
Over blackened plains
She will find her way

I can't speak for you, but I've got a really good feeling about this. Yes, very positive. Haven't been this optimistic in years. Why you ask? Her picture on the cover of Time is on a pitch black background ("over blackened plains she will find her way"). What could possibly go wrong?

See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Real GDP