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Real GDP growth averaged 3.48% per year from 1947 to 2000.

Starting in 2000, this long-term exponential trend began to fail. First the dotcom bubble popped, then came the housing bust. Let's take a close-up look at the most recent recovery for any signs of hope.


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From the bottom of the Great Recession, real GDP growth has averaged just 2.28%. That is an especially pathetic growth rate for at least five reasons.

1. "The worse a situation becomes the less it takes to turn it around, the bigger the upside." - George Soros (I think we can all agree that the situation qualified as much worse. So where is the bigger upside in response?)

2. The growth rate is a full 1.2% lower than the long-term average heading into 2000. This pig desperately needs lipstick in my opinion.

3. We can't blame any recessions for it being this low. There haven't been any recessions since the bottom! This data has been cherry picked to be recession free. Duh! I threw the optimists a bone here and it still came up way short! Seriously.

4. We're currently following the exponential growth trend line with great precision (r-squared = 0.988). The last time it failed, it failed to the downside. Historically speaking, recessions tend to do that. I know. Shocking.

5. How much will the 2.28% average drop once the next recession hits? In other words, what will the true growth rate be over a complete business cycle? 3.48%? I doubt it with every fiber of my being. I'd even be willing to leverage up that fiber with Super Colon Blow!

The January 20th cover of Time Magazine calls Janet Yellen the sixteen trillion dollar woman. That's a pretty amazing title and her picture definitely inspires confidence. She's going to need to work some magic to restore prosperity over the full business cycle though. I therefore offer her a musical tribute to help inspire. The monumental task before her is legendary.




I can't speak for you, but I've got a really good feeling about this. Yes, very positive. Haven't been this optimistic in years. Why you ask? Her picture on the cover of Time is on a pitch black background ("over blackened plains she will find her way"). What could possibly go wrong?

See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Real GDP

"I worry that we're still in the tentacles of the 2008 financial crisis; it never was resolved."
--Eric Sprott

Daily Mail reports with invitations warning guests to ‘EBYC’ — Eat Before You Come — and rumours they’ll be dancing to star turns from Beyonce and her rapper husband Jay Z, it won’t be your usual White House knees-up.

Michelle Obama was 50 yesterday and President Barack Obama will be feting his redoubtable First Lady tonight with a party that will give them the chance to let their hair down and forget their troubles for a few hours.

The email inviting guests to the ‘snacks & sips & dancing & dessert’ advised them to wear comfortable shoes and practise their dance moves.

Purse-lipped Washington etiquette experts have tutted at the informality of it all, but the Obamas have always been keen to appear accessible, even if the stand-offish reality is somewhat different.

The Obamas are the world’s most scrutinised couple at the best of times, but it will be rare to find a guest at the bash who won’t be secretly watching them with particular interest.

After all, the last time they were pictured together — at Nelson Mandela’s memorial — the First Lady was looking none too pleased as the her husband posed for a ‘selfie’ photograph with the leggy blonde Danish Prime Minister, Helle Thorning-Schmidt.

Indeed, if the U.S. tabloids are to be believed, the relationship of Washington’s golden couple is facing problems that go far beyond dirty looks. 

Under the headline Obama Divorce Bombshell!, the National Enquirer claims their 21-year marriage has dissolved in a string of ugly fights that were prompted by the Mandela memorial incident and — far more outrageously — Mrs Obama’s discovery that Secret Service bodyguards had been covering up infidelity on her husband’s part.

It’s an allegation the White House has declined to comment on, though after Bill Clinton’s trouser-dropping scandals, Americans would be rather less sanguine about any extra-marital activity than the French appear to be over President Francois Hollande’s behaviour.

Mrs Obama, the Enquirer claims, intends to stand by her husband until his presidency is over, at which time he will move back to Hawaii, where he grew up, and she will stay in Washington with their children.

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Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Fed Funds Rate

Dothan Eagle reports a former Enterprise youth pastor received an eight-year split sentence with three years to serve in jail after he pleaded guilty to the rape of a teenage girl.


Assistant Coffee County District Attorney Chris Kamanski said Timothy Thomas, 26, pleaded guilty to a felony second-degree rape charge. Kamanski said Thomas received an eight-year split with three years to serve in the Coffee County Jail. Kamanski said Thomas has already served about 280 days in jail waiting for trial.

“He’ll serve what he doesn’t have credit for day for day at the county jail,” Kamanski said. “He was the youth pastor at St. Luke United Methodist Church, and of course he’s no longer employed there.”

Enterprise police arrested Thomas in March of 2013 on the second-degree rape charge. Enterprise police said the rape occurred between Feb. 28 and March 18, 2013.

St. Luke United Methodist Church Pastor Dric Williford told the Dothan Eagleshortly after Thomas’ arrest they terminated him from working at the church following his arrest because of misconduct with a minor.

Kamanski said Thomas had initially posted his bail after police arrested him, but it was later revoked after authorities discovered Thomas had sent sexual text messages to the alleged victim.

Kamanski also said upon Thomas’ release from jail he’ll be required to register as a sex offender.

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My Foxreports it appears more credit card numbers may have been stolen in another string of cyber-attacks.

According to the cybercrime firm Intel Crawler, there are at least 6 ongoing attacks on US stores.

And the software behind it is the same one used to steal data from Target and Neiman Marcus.

The firm wouldn't say exactly how many attacks there are or identify the victims.

The suspected developer of that software is a 17-year-old from Russia.

Officials say the teen sold the software to cyber-criminals, who then attacked those retailers.

HollywoodReporter reports UPDATED: "They're more pervert in a sense. To me, the show would be too strong, too hard to watch on TV," said the reality star. ABC, Warner Horizon Television and producers deem the remarks "careless, thoughtless and insensitive."

ABC's latest Bachelor says he doesn't think that there should be a gay or bisexual person on the broadcast reality television show and described gays as "more pervert in a sense" in a new interview. 

Juan Pablo Galavis, the 32-year-old star of The Bachelor who also appeared on the most recent season of The Bachelorette, made the remarks in an interview with The TV Page's Sean Daly, who posted audio of the comments.

The writer asked whether ABC should have a gay or bisexual bachelor on the show. "No," Pablo Galavis responded. "Just 'cause I respect them but, honestly, I don't think it's a good example for kids to watch that on TV. It's hard, it's hard, it's a very thin line."

He continued: "Obviously, people have their husband and wife and have kids, and that's how we are brought up. Now there's fathers having kids and all that, and it's hard for me to understand that, too, in the sense of a household having people's -- two parents sleeping in the same bed and the kid going into bed. It's confusing in a sense, but I respect them because they want to have kids, they want to be parents. It's a scale; where do you put it on the scale, where's the thin line to cross or not? You have to respect everybody's desires, opinions and way of living. But it would be too hard for TV."

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