Daily news sites

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Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: ISM Manufacturing: Backlog of Orders Index

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See Also:
Candy Mountain Revisited

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

First, let's go with what we are told.

BLS: Retail Sales Workers: Job Outlook


Now that we've read that and have no doubt turned optimistic, let's go look at some actual charts to back the theory.


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Oh, yeah. That's looking real good long-term. We're not done yet though. Let's keep digging.


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When it comes to hours worked per week, we never did bounce back from the 1970s.


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Did I mention that we never did bounce back from the 1970s? Further, it would seem we've recently been attempting to duplicate the effect with high real oil prices and the added bonus of increased retail automation.

As seen in the following link, we apparently have some of the most educated retail workers in the history of our country. And yet, real hourly earnings have declined and continue to do so. If this isn't an illusion of prosperity then I don't know what is.

July 08, 2012
College Grads Find Retail a (Meager) Route to Job Market


Source Data:
BLS: Current Employment Statistics
St. Louis Fed: CPI

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The line in black shows the money spent on office construction per month adjusted for inflation (October 2012 dollars, in billions). If one adds up all the monthly data and adjusts for inflation, there has been $588 billion spent on office construction since the year 2000.

The line in blue shows nonfarm payrolls. There have been 2.97 million employees added since 2000.

Since 2000, $198,000 has been spent on office construction per nonfarm payroll job added.


Using hindsight, does that appear to be money well spent?

On the one hand, not every payroll employee added actually works in an office. On the other hand, not every office building that existed in 2000 still exists today. Sigh.

Is it really any wonder that office construction has been in a downward trend for the last decade or so? When job growth began to fail, so too the need to build new offices.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

The liberals/progressives will have fun with this one. Gear up for the future scorched earth politics. Coming to America compliments of the rEpublican (and dEmocrat no doubt as well) party. Pull up a seat, grab a cold one and enjoy! You're looking at the future.



Via: Libertarian Republican

Happy Monday everybody!

It's like spring here today and I'm loving it. The girls and I are going to go outside for a nice long w-a-l-k (shhh. we can't say walk out loud, it sends the dog into hysterics) to the park and finish some outdoor christmas prep. But before we head out I wanted to share a quick before and after with you.

Nothing too crazy, but something that has bugged me for years.

The stairway down to our finished basement/family room/playroom/doesn't-get-cleaned-often room. It is hard to tell from the picture (as it's an awkward place to photograph) but it is just a big huge vast space of...nothing. And nothing drives me bonkers more than a HUGE blank wall.

I know, 'Get off your arse and hang a picture then, big deal'. But a piece of art or a picture that would fill up that space would be mega bucks and a gallery wall is not an option as this requires a crane practically to hang one nail. The hubs would not go for that. And since he's the one that gets up on the ladder, good man that he is, I thought I'd be nice. Want to save up my 'will you please do this crazy project with me' points for bigger spaces.

After keeping my eye out for something big and cheap, I finally found a great solution at my favorite salvage place.

So the ladder came out,


some circ de soleil moves happened,


and problem solved.

An old map from a school that had closed in the area. Now we grab a bit of education on our way down to watch TV. And we hung it just high enough so that little hands can't rub, rip, pull or whatever else little hands tend to do.

Do you have any area of your house that drives you crazy? Have a precarious spot that you've had to hang something? Wanna come to the park with us?

This is an outfit I wore almost two weeks ago and it was a challenge:"How to incorporate a Summery piece into Fall season"-a dress, in my case. This white dress (courtesy to Sugarlips.com) may be a excellent minimalist item for Summer days, I'm absolutely sure about that! What I want to find out right now, is how to incorporate this dress in my F/W wardrobe. There we have a challenge.
This dress will be a perfect tunic at this moment, creating a graphic look, by adding more layers. The diagonal black line gave me the idea to add more graphic elements such as: grids patterned pants and polka dot shirt, all in b&w. A patterned red coat and the red hells are just a high contrast and a way to showcase the graphic pieces better.
This is solution nr.1:)




                                                                       Coat: thrift store/ another favorite of mine/ Here
                                                                       Dress: thanks to Sugarlips.com/Here
                                                                       Pants: thanks to Sheinside.com/ option Here
                                                                       Heels: Nine West/ similar Here
                                                                       Bag: thanks to Meredith Wendell/ Here
                                                                       Bangle bracelets: Poshlocket/ Hermes

Click to enlarge.

Update:

Rob Dawg wished to see an exponential trend from 1961 to 1991.


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The chart above sums up why there was a question mark in my first chart. If the true trend is an exponential growth curve then we're right on trend for the most part. I just find it hard to believe that the dotcom bubble and the housing bubble got us there.


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And lastly, this chart captures the spirit of Rob Dawg's point. It's a fairly good fit. If this is the true trend then there is a bit more fake prosperity than the first chart shows (since the true long-term trend would be bending downwards).

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

Another son of Massachusetts who went on to be the leader of the free world. President John F. Kennedy was both inspiring and forward thinking. His vision to put a man on the moon before 1970 motivated a nation to move science and technology beyond what was perhaps considered possible or even necessary at the time. Individuals like JFK challenge the norm, push to achieve new goals and heights for mankind (humankind for the PC sensitive), and challenge us all to move forward and acheive our highest potential as human beings.



JFK on religious freedom and the separation of church and state. His remarks begin at approximately the 2 minute and 30 second mark.



Perhaps the rEpublican party, especially the socon religious right should listen to and learn from words and example of JFK, a devout Roman Catholic.

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty  -vs- Tyranny


As the nation struggles with diverse and often divisive factions and varying ideological principles/beliefs, it would do well to consider the struggle (and views) of those that came before us. Our forebears were, after all, responsible for galvanizing folks around principles that spawned the greatest political and governmental experiment mankind (for the PC sensitive humankind) has ever witnessed. Note that all points of emphasis are mine.

Federalist #10, James Madison 1787 - To the People of the State of New York:

AMONG the numerous advantages promised by a well constructed Union, none deserves to be more accurately developed than its tendency to break and control the violence of faction. The friend of popular governments never finds himself so much alarmed for their character and fate, as when he contemplates their propensity to this dangerous vice. He will not fail, therefore, to set a due value on any plan which, without violating the principles to which he is attached, provides a proper cure for it. The instability, injustice, and confusion introduced into the public councils, have, in truth, been the mortal diseases under which popular governments have everywhere perished; as they continue to be the favorite and fruitful topics from which the adversaries to liberty derive their most specious declamations. The valuable improvements made by the American constitutions on the popular models, both ancient and modern, cannot certainly be too much admired; but it would be an unwarrantable partiality, to contend that they have as effectually obviated the danger on this side, as was wished and expected. Complaints are everywhere heard from our most considerate and virtuous citizens, equally the friends of public and private faith, and of public and personal liberty, that our governments are too unstable, that the public good is disregarded in the conflicts of rival parties, and that measures are too often decided, not according to the rules of justice and the rights of the minor party, but by the superior force of an interested and overbearing majority. However anxiously we may wish that these complaints had no foundation, the evidence, of known facts will not permit us to deny that they are in some degree true. It will be found, indeed, on a candid review of our situation, that some of the distresses under which we labor have been erroneously charged on the operation of our governments; but it will be found, at the same time, that other causes will not alone account for many of our heaviest misfortunes; and, particularly, for that prevailing and increasing distrust of public engagements, and alarm for private rights, which are echoed from one end of the continent to the other. These must be chiefly, if not wholly, effects of the unsteadiness and injustice with which a factious spirit has tainted our public administrations.

By a faction, I understand a number of citizens, whether amounting to a majority or a minority of the whole, who are united and actuated by some common impulse of passion, or of interest, adversed to the rights of other citizens, or to the permanent and aggregate interests of the community.

There are two methods of curing the mischiefs of faction: the one, by removing its causes; the other, by controlling its effects.

There are again two methods of removing the causes of faction: the one, by destroying the liberty which is essential to its existence; the other, by giving to every citizen the same opinions, the same passions, and the same interests.

It could never be more truly said than of the first remedy, that it was worse than the disease. Liberty is to faction what air is to fire, an aliment without which it instantly expires. But it could not be less folly to abolish liberty, which is essential to political life, because it nourishes faction, than it would be to wish the annihilation of air, which is essential to animal life, because it imparts to fire its destructive agency.

The second expedient is as impracticable as the first would be unwise. As long as the reason of man continues fallible, and he is at liberty to exercise it, different opinions will be formed. As long as the connection subsists between his reason and his self-love, his opinions and his passions will have a reciprocal influence on each other; and the former will be objects to which the latter will attach themselves. The diversity in the faculties of men, from which the rights of property originate, is not less an insuperable obstacle to a uniformity of interests. The protection of these faculties is the first object of government. From the protection of different and unequal faculties of acquiring property, the possession of different degrees and kinds of property immediately results; and from the influence of these on the sentiments and views of the respective proprietors, ensues a division of the society into different interests and parties.

The latent causes of faction are thus sown in the nature of man; and we see them everywhere brought into different degrees of activity, according to the different circumstances of civil society. A zeal for different opinions concerning religion, concerning government, and many other points, as well of speculation as of practice; an attachment to different leaders ambitiously contending for pre-eminence and power; or to persons of other descriptions whose fortunes have been interesting to the human passions, have, in turn, divided mankind into parties, inflamed them with mutual animosity, and rendered them much more disposed to vex and oppress each other than to co-operate for their common good. {Read More}

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

Pay special attention at the 1:35 minute mark. May America never let the oligarchs and the rEpublican or dEmocrat party destroy the vision of John Adams, a son Massachusetts.

by; Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty  -vs- Tyranny


One simply can't help but wonder at the 21st century rEpublicans and how far they are removed from the reality of their own absurdities. I don't know, maybe it's the socon neocon and anti science connection. Whatever it is the party need some new blood and an infusion of reality.

TPM - House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) said that Congress will not give up control over the nation's debt limit and that each time the limit is raised, Congress will demand cuts and reforms, during an interview on "Fox News Sunday."

Congress is never going to give up this power. I've made it clear to the president that every time we get to the debt limit, we need cuts and reforms that are greater than the increase in the debt limit. It's the only way to leverage the political process to produce more change than what it would if left alone.

Via: Mewmeorandum

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

Adam Smith -vs- Ayn Rand. Capitalism was their common goal, the justification for achieving the ends of capitalism was their difference.



Based on pure logic and objectiveness Smith would have to concede to Rand.

Looking beyond the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries, and post Soviet/Chinese/Southeast Asian communism, the debate is once again forefront and center.

Given the changing realities of modern western society how would you characterize capitalism today and what specifically would you suggest we ought modify or do differently?

For a insightful yet brief analysis of Smith and how his views might relate to the present please see taospeaks as you consider the foregoing.

There remains one thing abundantly clear. We as humans have yet to agree on the ultimate right solution. This is as it should be. Knowledge, growth, and ultimately achievement is NOT made by everyone always agreeing. Wouldn't you agree?

Cross posted at Left Coast Rebel

November 30, 2012
You're 55 and have $100K to invest. What to do?


Emphasis added.

Hail Mary Pass


Ah, yes. The Great Desperation strikes again. Hail Mary time!



And if that doesn't work...



There's nothing quite like a well executed confidence game to even the odds.

Click to enlarge.

AIRodyssey: Inflight passenger announcements


Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Personal Saving Rate

Click to enlarge.

An optimist would exclaim, "Yay! The government's going to lower taxes and the number of civilian employed will increase dramatically! That's clearly how we'll make it back to the median trend line in red. No worries!"

Unfortunately, I'm not an optimist.

1. The largest peak was in the early 2000s. We returned to the median. It was painful.
2. The second largest peak was in the late 2007 to early 2008 period. We returned to the median. It was painful.
3. We seem to be peaking again.
4. What's up with that blue trend line?
5. Who's up for a game of fiscal cliff diving?

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Bright bittersweet colours are enhancing my spirit each time I see or wear them. Today's outfit is an example of a "happy look" with eye-catching colors and sharp minimalist lines. The most architectural piece from this outfit that deserves all the spotlight is this purple blouse( thanks to Sheinside.com). Unfortunately the weather didn't allow me to do that, so I added this yellow blazer and at least I created a chromatic contrast. Accessories as this vintage clutch, leather gloves and modern collar necklace, complete the look perfectly!
Thank you for your visit and have a wonderful weekend !


                                                                            Blouse: thanks to Sheinside.com/Here
                                                                            Blazer: vintage
                                                                            Pants: Forever21/ similar style Here
                                                             Heels: Nine West/ option Here 
                                                             Clutch: vintage/ option Here
                                                                            Sunglasses: Ralph Lauren
                                                                            Collar necklace: from my friend Mihaela/ Here
                                                                            Gloves: from Marshalls/ option Here

Click to enlarge.

It would seem that the low real interest rate environment is finally trickling in.


Click to enlarge.



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Real Disposable Personal Income per Civilian Employed
St. Louis Fed: 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security

I continue to climb a minimum of an extra 20 flights of stairs each day. This month it was pretty much the bare minimum every day.


Click to enlarge.

It was a good month, especially compared to last November.

Here's the long-term chart.


Click to enlarge.

Thanksgiving definitely worked against me. You can see the blip in the first chart quite clearly (23rd and 24th). My girlfriend and I have eaten two pumpkin pies since then and are half way through an apple pie. That doesn't even count all the ham I ate. Serious seasonal effect!

So what worked? Well, I had some pent-up walking demand from catching a cold in October. I also had a new pair of waterproof hiking shoes thanks to the recommendation of Mr Slippery (a hiker and blogger). As seen in the following chart, what started off as baby steps just kept growing.


Click to enlarge.

That's 164.5 miles of outdoor walking. No blisters. Hurray!

That said, hello exponential trend failure. Livin' the dream! Let's call the 29th the point of failure since it is raining hard today and the wind is a bit gusty. I was curious how many miles I could comfortably walk in a month. I might try it again at some point. Our dog certainly loved it.

And lastly, let's assume I could double the distance I walk each month and keep doing it every month. That's pretty much the trend in the chart. How far would I need to walk 32 months from now?

164.5*2^32 = 706,522,120,192 miles

Let's assume I walked 24 hours per day. How fast would I need to be moving?

706,522,120,192 miles per 30-day month = 272,578 miles per second

Let's just say that seems more than a bit unlikely. No, sir. Let's just call it an exponential trend failure today and get it over with.



See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

by:Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

For whatever it may be worth the following is something to seriously consider. rEpublicans especially should consider the implications of the article. It may very well hold the key to any hoped for future success by the party of blinders.

CBS DC - The median net worth of American households has dropped to a 43-year low as the lower and middle classes appear poorer and less stable than they have been since 1969.

According to a recent study by New York University economics professor Edward N. Wolff, median net worth is at the decades-low figure of $57,000 (in 2010 dollars). And as the numbers in his study reflect, the situation only appears worse when all the statistics are taken as a whole.

According to Wolff, between 1983 and 2010, the percentage of households with less than $10,000 in assets (using constant 1995 dollars) rose from 29.7 percent to 37.1 percent. The “less than $10,000″ figure includes the numerous households that have no assets at all, or “negative assets,” which is otherwise known as “debt.”

Over that same period of time, the wealthiest 1 percent of American households increased their average wealth by 71 percent.

As noted by Daily Finance, from 1983 to 2010 the share of total wealth held by the richest 10 percent of American households increased from 68.2 percent to 76.7 percent. Meanwhile, all the rest of Americans lost financial ground.

An August Pew Research Center study found that many in the middle-class are divided on how they believe his gap widened.

Fully 85 percent of self-described middle-class adults say it is more difficult now than it was a decade ago for middle-class people to maintain their standard of living. ... {Read More}

Serious considerations for serious people. No?

Via: Memeorandum