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September 3, 2013
After a Recent Upswing, College Enrollment Declines, Census Bureau Reports


The math suggests that we are going to have some seriously well educated retail, leisure, and hospitality workers in the future.

Some people probably wonder why I'm still a permabear. Go figure.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty - vs- Tyranny

I found the following article by Ann Althouse interesting. More than just interesting really. Refreshing and honest as well.

In yesterday's interview with Chuck Todd, Obama said:

"You know, one of the lessons -- learned from this whole process on the website -- is that probably the biggest gap between the private sector and the federal government is when it comes to I.T. ...

Well, the reason is is that when it comes to my campaign, I'm not constrained by a bunch of federal procurement rules, right?"

That is, many have pointed out that his campaign website was really good, so why didn't that mean that he'd be good at setting up a health insurance website? The answer is that the government is bad because the government is hampered by... government!

"And how we write -- specifications and -- and how the -- the whole things gets built out. So part of what I'm gonna be looking at is how do we across the board, across the federal government, leap into the 21st century."

I love the combination of: 1. Barely able to articulate what the hell happens inside these computer systems, and 2. Wanting to leap!

"Because when it comes to medical records for veterans, it's still done in paper. Medicaid is still largely done on paper.

When we buy I.T. services generally, it is so bureaucratic and so cumbersome that a whole bunch of it doesn't work or it ends up being way over cost."

This should have made him sympathetic to the way government burdens private enterprise, but he's focused on liberating government to take over more of what has been done privately. And yet there's no plan, no idea about what would suddenly enable government to displace private businesses competing to offer a product people want to buy.

Instead, we've been told we must buy a product, and things have been set up so we can only go through the government's market (the "exchange"), and the government has already demonstrated that its market doesn't work. But you can't walk away, you're forced to buy, and there's nowhere else to go. And yet, he wants us to feel bad about the cumbersome bureaucracy the government encountered trying to procure the wherewithal to set up the market it had already decided we would all need to use. {Read More}

Indeed Ann, indeed.

Via: Memeorandum

by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

I am a fiscal conservative, a social libertarian, not a democrat, not a republican... I am an American and I vote, like millions of other Americans do. Although the total turnout is shameful to say the least. That is, however a story for another day.

In reading THE WEEK I admit to being a bit puzzled. The week is a conservative leaning publication so it is natural they would pitch the party line that republicans need to attract people from the traditional conservative strongholds. In other words white males over 30, married women (presumably with children), and the fundie right Christians.

The only problem with this recipe is there are increasingly less people in the demographic group this publication is suggesting republicans target. Ultimately it is a losing strategy and will insure 50 years (or more) of democratic rule. Period.

The real answer is to create a much bigger tent by adopting a socially libertarian viewpoint on individual preference, whether it be sexual orientation, reproductive rights (women's rights), marijuana use, and the complete host of other individual liberties. At the same time republicans need to enunciate how and why fiscally responsible conservatism is the road to national economic stability and a successful middle class. Being forthright and acknowledging it is time to tame the MIC Leviathan and our nation's role as the policeman of the world will be paramount if the republicans party is to survive. Simply put... whether a conservative or a liberal the majority think the people (all of them) are more important that the state retaining unchecked power and influence worldwide.

From THE WEEK:

If demography is destiny, Republicans can't win the presidency by acting more like Democrats. The GOP's best shot in 2016 is not to nominate a moderate. They must nominate a conservative who can attract more conservative voters to the polls, just like President Obama built his own coalition and increased the relative electoral power of each constituent part. Not that it will be easy.

As long as the GOP nominates someone plausible, they start off with 46 percent of the vote and a large chunk of the electoral college. Getting to 270 + 1 electoral votes and then to 50 percent of the popular balloting requires trade-offs and choices.

Where Obama drew in younger voters, unmarried women, black voters, and Latinos, Republicans would be wise to focus, in the short term, on raising turnout among married women, white men over 30, and self-described evangelical Christians.

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Of course, overall demographic trends tilt the balance away from Republicans. The uphill climb begins with an awareness that Democrats will have somewhere between 200 and 250 electoral votes banked by Election Day. I'll start with 226, which leaves Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) and 30 other states for Republicans to pick up. A lot of states, yes, but the most populous ones are already true blue, and there are fewer large states where Republicans can meaningfully turn out their demographic tranches relative to whatever a strong Democratic presidential candidate might do.

Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa are pretty much the only states where there's enough give for Republicans. If the 2016 nominee wins those states, he or she will need at least eight more electoral votes...

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What Republicans really can't do is nominate someone who would try to eat into Democratic percentages among younger voters and Latino voters. It's a much taller order to take votes away, and there aren't many states where, unless Democrats massively lose face among these groups, a Republican can take them over. (I see just two: Colorado and Florida.)

So to those who say: The GOP will ONLY win the presidency if it moderates its tone on social issues, I say: not with the electorate as currently constituted. It might be useful, but it is neither necessary or sufficient.

All in all the recipe presented by THE WEEK is more of the same short sighted view that cost republicans in 2008 and 2012. It is fairly oblivious (or at least t should be) that some conservatives and republicans just don't get bit. Probably they never will.

Via: Memeorandum

Click to enlarge.

You can disregard the blue point due to the government shutdown if you like. As for the trend in red, a good pair of rose-colored glasses will make it virtually invisible!

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Carolyn C. Alcala and Anthony J. Judd

Kathryn Stalbaum

 I told you that you don't have to wait too much for seeing another outfit ( with a good dose of color this time) combined with those Zara boots that are becoming lately my everyday shoes :)

Those not in the labor force have grown nearly 3.2 million over the past year, with nearly 1 million in just the past month.


Click to enlarge.

There was a major long-term trend shift starting in 2000. The Fed didn't like the old normal in red so it offered us up a housing bubble and in its aftermath a new normal in blue. It's a bit hard to tell the two normals apart in the chart. Well, you kind of can. The new normal is a bit steeper. It's probably trying to make up for lost can kicking ground. Oh the futility! Unintended consequences for the win!


Click to enlarge.

Note that the Great Recession also created a major long-term trend shift in those dropping out of the labor force permanently more than likely. One wonders if there will be more employment mass extinction events in the not too distant future. One especially wonders that if all this current can kicking is no more permanent than the last time.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Not in Labor Force per Capita
St. Louis Fed: Real Social Security Benefits per Capita

by: Les Carpenter Rational Nation USA
Liberty -vs- Tyranny

Polls are admittedly mere indicators of the political pulse of the public. It is true arguments can be made that depending on the political preference(s), or leanings of the particular organization responsible for any specific poll that the poll may be manipulated through specific wording of poll questions. Questions intentionally designed to generate the response desired by the pollster. Few thinking individual would disagree.

President Obama's job approval ratings have been steadily declining and almost all polls reflect this decline. After considering multiple sources of information over a two week period Pew Research, Center for the People the Press seemed to be the most nonpartisan and thus reflective of the public's general sentiments.

A quick summary:

• Overall job approval rating  41%
• Americans disapprove of the way Obama is handling four of five major issues. Terrorism being the lone exception.
• Only 31% of Americans approve of the way Obama has handled the economy, 65% disapprove.
• 21% of independents give Obama positive marks on the economy, 65% of democrats approve. (No surprise there)
• Obama health care rating is a net negtive. 37% approve, 59% didapprove.
• Only 32% of the public aprove of the job Obama s doing on the immigration issue. 53% of democrats approve and  42% disapprove.
• Obama's job approval ratings have declined from 515 in May this year to 46% in July, 43% in October, and 41% now.
• Obama's 12-point difference between disapproval (53%) and approval (41%) over the last month is the largest of his presidency.
• Over the past year Obama's job approval ratings among his core supportyers has dropped from 88% to 78%. Republican aproval ratings have remained at just 12% over the sae time period.

Partisan democrats while showing a decline in support for the president his core constituency remains solidly behind him. Republican support remains, as expected, at near sub zero temperatures.

The Charts:

It is clear that partisanship remains a factor in the public's perception of the President's performance and effectiveness. It is equally as clear that those who typically are less or non partisan are souring on the President's performance. These are the swing voters who may very well affect the outcome of the 2014 and 2016 elections. If the trend continues it may be a steep uphill battle for the democrats to even retain control of the senate.

Via: Memeorandum

Photos: Facebook

The following chart shows motor vehicle loans as a percentage of annual wage and salary accruals.


Click to enlarge.

How much debt is too much? We'll find out someday if we keep hugging the bottom of that trend channel.

October 28, 2013
More new-car buyers opt for 7-year loans


Source Data:
FRB: Historical Motor Vehicle Loans
St. Louis Fed: Compensation of Employees: Wages & Salary Accruals

November 7, 2013
J.C. Penney reports first monthly sales increase since 2011


0.9 percent is almost exactly what apparel inflation has done over the past year. Way to go JC Penney! Very impressive!


Probably best if existing JC Penney employees did not demand a raise at the present time. Just sayin'.


We're certainly getting an early start this year. This economy's poised for clearance! Everything must go!

Speaking of demanding a raise...

November 7, 2013
Washington city votes to raise minimum wage to $15


This measure was strongly supported by SeaTac's many, many hospitality and transportation workers. Go figure. I'm just a bit surprised that it was only a 63% increase. Surely people willing to vote themselves $15 per hour would also be willing to accept $18.38. Double or nothing next time!

Where is the frickin' Free Maple Donut Fridays ballot measure? Do I have to do everything myself? Surely it would be popular! Who doesn't love free stuff! Every business should be required to provide free maple donuts to anyone who asks, but only on Fridays. No need to be greedy here.

The naysayers may insist that there may be a few unintended consequences. Some may wish to hoard a week's worth of donuts every Friday. Free donuts for life? Others may not trust that the measure would stay in effect forever and hoard even more than a week's worth at a time. Are those really problems though? Think of the increased freezer sales adding to GDP!

And what about the increased energy usage? Not a problem! Free Electricity Mondays! Coming soon to a ballot near you! Exponentially increasing unintended consequences offer exponentially increasing intended solutions! We just need to stay on top of them and manage this economy from crisis to crisis, just like we have been doing!


File:Bacon donut.jpg (Mike McCune)

Are you with me? Hell yes! Let us eat maple donuts!

NOTE TO READERS: In an effort to reach people in these times of NO attention span I am developing a series of very short videos that focus on the concept of Supply and Demand to illustrate the flight (migration) from high taxes and stifling regulations of key liberal centers. Regions known to be hostile to small free enterprise.  (The videos are amateurish due to the fact that I am an amateur. I'm working on that).

The Law of Supply and Demand makes for a compelling argument that people are on the move away from liberal decay. That is to say according to my research people are  fleeing the high cost,  high taxed,  excessively regulated and highly liberal regions of Northern New Jersey, Chicago and San Francisco.

Photos: UFW

Rafael Caro Quintero and Enrique "Kiki" Camarena

Photo courtesy of UFW