Long-Term Recession Odds

The following chart shows the odds that a month chosen at random is within a recession.


Click to enlarge.

The 15-year moving average is shown in black. The average since World War II is shown in red.

In my opinion, the odds of the Fed permanently putting a stop to future recessions is about as likely as monkeys magically appearing out of my you know what.

It is also my opinion that the low recession frequency of the 1980s and 1990s is officially over. If so, then we can expect 1 month out of every 6 to be in recession, which oddly enough is the same odds one would have in a game of Russian Roulette.



Feeling lucky?

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: NBER based Recession Indicators