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@#$%!
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@#$%!
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@#$%!
Short-Term
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@#$%!
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@#$%!
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@#$%!
Let's take it back to 1984 yet again.
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@#$%!
Those who miraculously can't believe in "new normal" theories ought to at least brace for the old normal theories. As seen in the chart above, we're at the top of the old normal's frickin' channel. It therefore seems incredibly unlikely that the job market is on the verge of spewing candy mountain goodness.
Put another way, got kidney? I believe with every fiber of my being that we will not see 4% year over year payroll growth again in my lifetime. In fact, I'd be pleasantly surprised if we ever hit 2% again (unless we got there through a massive employment crash first of course).
As a side note, what kind of denial drug must one be taking to not believe in new normal theories? And how did I miss out? I can't say it would help my financial health but perhaps I'd at least be sleeping better. They say ignorance is bliss!
I dare the optimists to come up with one reasonable scenario which returns us to the long-term employment trend that spans from 1939 to 2000. It's just not mathematically possible without incredible leaps of irrational faith. A quadrillion in national debt *and* cheap energy? Not reasonable. Each worker has two jobs in an increasingly automated world? Not reasonable. The Fed has permanently put a stop to recessions? Not reasonable.
The old normal theories are about as provably dead as anything in economics could possibly be. Over the long-term, we cannot grow like we once did. In fact, we can barely grow during this economic expansion. How much will the next economic contraction undo? I suspect it will be more than most are willing to believe. And let's not even talk about our massive trade deficit and the sucking sound it is making. Sigh.
See Also:
41.0 Million Missing Jobs
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Total nonfarm
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