Linear Trend Failure of the Day

Click to enlarge.

Since I am a long-term believer in the long-term death of real yields theory, I am therefore willing to offer the following prediction.

Stick a fork in the chart's red trend line. It's over.

In my opinion, the peak was probably set on June 21, 2013 (the peak seen in the chart). That was one day after I made a purchase of a 19-year TIPS (with intent to hold to maturity). Thanks bond market! My patience has rarely been so rewarded. To think that I could have been stuck with 0.0% just 2 months earlier.

Those arguing that my linear trend failure prediction is wrong can mark October 16, 2013 on their calendars. That's the day Jeremy Siegel's mythical 3.5% real yields will arrive should the trend in red continue. I would not hold my breath for such an outcome though. At the very least, inhale extremely deeply before doing so, lol. Sigh.

Just opinions! This is definitely not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: 20-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security