Click to enlarge.
There is no good news in the 10-year and 20-year moving averages. Both are currently at record highs and climbing.
The only good news here is that the 5-year moving average is rolling over. However, this news is offset by the fact that the current price of oil @ $102.73 is well above the 5-year moving average. Should it stay there then the rolling over will be temporary.
What could cause the 5-year moving average to continue to roll over? A recession brought on by high-priced oil could certainly do it. For the first time in U.S. history (March 2012 to March 2013), the real price of oil averaged more than $90 over a 5-year period (August 2013 Dollars). What a drag.
For what it is worth, nothing tends to kill higher prices like higher prices (most bubble watchers would agree). Note that the perpetually increasing upward trend in total miles driven has failed.
No predictions here, simply observations.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Crude Oil Prices (WTI)
St. Louis Fed: CPI
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