Click to enlarge.
The correlation is the same 0.985 it was on Friday. If you squint, you can see that August was a good month. It did come in slightly above trend, but not by all that much in the grand scheme of things.
Since all I really care about is the underlying long-term trend, let's eliminate much of this monthly noise by using 12-month moving averages instead.
Click to enlarge.
I have rarely seen a more perfect parabola in all of economics; and we are currently riding right on top of it.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Industrial Production Index
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