Long-Term Bonds vs. Short-Term Bonds

The following chart shows the spread between the 20-year treasury yield and the 5-year treasury yield. There's a missing data gap in the late 80s to early 90s, but it should not materially affect the conclusions.


Click to enlarge.

This chart contains two glaring linear trend failures. The first was a break from the long-term trend in blue (dotcom bubble popping). The second was a temporary break from the short-term trend in red (just before the full effects of the housing bubble were apparent to all).

Investors have been seriously burned twice so far (dotcom and housing) and it is my belief that if we are constantly told that treasuries are in a bubble, then investors will believe that treasuries must be in a bubble. Few seem to question what yields in Japan have done following their housing bubble in the early 1990s though. Nearly 5 years of ZIRP here haven't seemed to change many opinions either. Go figure.

Since 2001, there has been unprecedented fear of investing in long-term treasury bonds. That's what the red line in the chart tells me.

In 2001, the 20-year treasury bond yield averaged 5.63%. Many investors would sell their souls for that yield now (especially the ones who are still sitting in cash awaiting even higher yields). What will investors wished they had sold once the next recession hits? I'm going to suggest that it might not be today's 3.39% 20-year treasury bonds. I think there is a much more likely asset.

July 29, 2013
DEJA VU: People Are Using Borrowed Money To Buy Stock Like It's 2007 Or 1999

Deutsche Bank has a monster note out on margin debt that has been making the rounds. The conclusion of the note is rather simple – today’s euphoric borrowing on margin to buy stocks is reminiscent of past bubbly equity market periods (see here for more).

Just opinions! This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
U.S. Treasury: Daily Yield Curve Rates