Click to enlarge.
What recovery? For what it is worth, I do not believe we will ever reach that peak again. If four full years of "recovery" combined with 4+ years of ZIRP hasn't made any progress towards returning to our former illusionary glory, then what can?
This chart implies that there will not be any long-term auto industry growth within the U.S. (other than the temporary pent-up demand created during recessions). How's that for greatly depressing?
The next chart shows the total vehicle miles traveled per capita.
Click to enlarge.
I know this sounds crazy, but ever since yesterday on the road, I've been seeing this shape. Shaving cream, pillows. Dammit! I know this. I know what this is! This means something. This is important. - Roy Neary, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, 1977
As seen in the chart, welcome to 1998. I turned into a permabear in the fall of 2004 (just as the upward trend was beginning to peak). I watched the stock market roar on without me into 2007. I then watched as the stock market come roaring back down. It's roaring back up again on the misguided hopes of luring me back in perhaps. I have but one thing to say.
Yawn.
July 19, 2013
Calculated Risk: DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 0.9% in May
With all these factors, it might take several more years before we see a new peak in miles driven.
Based on what? Put me down for never. Seriously. If we're driving even half as many miles per capita after our population has doubled, then I would be extremely surprised. It would mean that the virtual reality video games of the distant future, pardon my language, suck. It would also mean that Amazon.com hasn't figured out a way to automate most retail sales jobs (or for that matter, jobs in general). I'm certainly not betting on that outcome! This is assuming our population even will double of course. I have my doubts on that as well. Things happen to countries stuck in ZIRP.
Working Age Population in Japan
Click to enlarge.
July 9, 2013
Baby bust? National birthrate hits an all-time low due to weak economic recovery
The recession has been over for four years, but the birth rate in the U.S. continues to fall as many people struggle with a sluggish economy and financial uncertainty.
According to a recent analysis by the Pew Institute, since 2007 when there were a record 4,316,233 births, the number of births has been steadily declining, with 4,007,000 births in 2012 - the lowest number since 1998.
According to a recent analysis by the Pew Institute, since 2007 when there were a record 4,316,233 births, the number of births has been steadily declining, with 4,007,000 births in 2012 - the lowest number since 1998.
Like I said previously, welcome to 1998.
I'll leave on this bonus thought. If the economy of the future really does stink then perhaps more people will start to carpool. Could there be any more single occupancy vehicles out on the road? I'm not being judgmental. I'm as guilty as the next person. I'm just saying that there is plenty of fat to cut when the fat needs cutting. And as a side note, Ben Bernanke desperately wants us to not cut the fat, lest we experience Great Recession II, return of the killer recession. Sigh.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Moving 12-Month Total Vehicle Miles Traveled
St. Louis Fed: Moving 12-Month Total Vehicle Miles Traveled per Capita
St. Louis Fed: Working Age Population: Aged 15 and Over: All Persons for Japan
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