The Great Bond Market "Panic" of 2013

Click to enlarge.

Gasp in horror at the return to the long-term declining trend lines. Behold the exponential trend failures which have been foretold for years! Any second now! Brace for them!

So when will the Fed raise rates? Let's listen to the experts!

December 23, 2010
Economists: Fed won't raise rates until 2012

Only seven out of 25 participants are forecasting a rate hike in the next twelve months, and most of those expect it to come in the final three months of 2011. Another nine expect the next rate increase to come in the first quarter of 2012, while eight more are expecting a hike later that year.

The current bid is 2012. Can I hear 2013? Yes!

January 12, 2012
Economists Expect Fed to Raise Rates by 2014

Broadly speaking, the consensus is that the Fed will do nothing on interest rates in 2012. A few economists see it moving aggressively in 2013, but the majority don’t. By 2014, though, the consensus sees an end to the long-period of ultra low interest rates engineered by the Fed in response to the financial crisis and slow recovery.

Can I hear a "well before 2014"? Yes, you sir in your ivory tower!

March 26, 2012
Fed to Raise Rates `Well Before 2014' Siegel Says

Can I get a 2015? Yes, you sir! 2016? Yes! Yes!

April 30, 2013
Fed Officials Forecast Main Rate to Stay Near Zero Until 2015

Few expect the central bank to start raising short-term rates before late 2015 or early 2016...

This is a very popular item guaranteed to impress the ladies. Can I get a "Years in the Future" bid? Yes!

July 10, 2013
Wharton School's Jeremy Siegel Thinks the Fed Raising Rates Is Years in the Future

Seigel thinks that a 3% yield on the 10-year Treasury would take a bite out of the stock market.

Sold to the desperate man in the ivory tower! Nicely played Professor Siegel! We'll just forget about your previous "well before 2014" bid. That was just crazy talk.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
Bloomberg: US Rates