Third Time's the Charm (Musical Tribute)

Click to enlarge.

As I look at the chart, I can't help but ask myself three questions.

1. Has the Fed permanently put an end to recessions?
2. What are the odds that the economy will soon accelerate to the upside from here?
3. Is this really the best time in all of recorded history to put new money to work in the stock market?

If you've been reading my blog, then you can probably guess my answers.

For those just tuning in, this is actually an update to a chart that I created back in March of 2012. Unfortunately, we're pretty much right on schedule. Check out the link.

I do not believe that retail sales will hit 72% of wages during this business cycle. That's just a guess though. I suppose it could happen. What is more important to me is how low this percentage goes once the peak is in.



Retail sales for June will be released a few short hours from now. I'm hardly sitting on pins and needles anxiously awaiting the report though. Regardless of what the numbers show, one month does not make a trend. One data point will not dramatically impact what the chart in this post is trying to say.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart